This study presents an interdecadal change in the interannual variability of the tropical cyclone (TC) genesis frequency (TCGF) over the western North Pacific (WNP) around the early 1990s, which is characterized by decreasing in the periodicity and standard deviation of the total TC number (TCN) and shifting in genesis location of the TC over the WNP. This interdecadal change is largely associated with the changes in the impacts of the individual and combined modes of the sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) in tropical Indo-Pacific Ocean (TIPO). Results indicate that prior to the early 1990s, the interannual variability of the WNP TCGF is closely influenced by the La Niña-like SSTAs in the tropical Pacific Ocean (TPO), which leads to a zonally dipole structure in the WNP TCGF by triggering an anomalous anticyclone over the southeastern WNP and an anomalous cyclone over the northwestern WNP. Since the early 1990s, the interannual variability of the WNP TCGF is attributed to the impacts of the Indian Ocean Basin mode (IOBM) SSTAs in the tropical Indian Ocean (TIO) and the El Niño Modoki-like SSTAs in the TPO, which may work individually and jointly by inducing an anomalous cyclone over the WNP through a Rossby wave-type and a Kelvin wave-type response, respectively. In addition, the IOBM SSTAs in the TIO play a leading role in the impacts on the interannual variability of the WNP TCGF during the recent period. These results also indicate an interdecadal change in the relationship between the TCGF over the WNP and the Indo-Pacific SSTAs, which may provide a good implication for seasonal prediction of the TC activity over the WNP.
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The two combined modes reveal similar patterns to the TIPO SSTAs related to the WNP TCN index during P1 and P2, respectively, which account for 27.6 and 13.6% of the total variance of the TIPO SSTAs and are significantly separated based on North et al. (1982). Liu et al. (2018) documented that the ENSO-IODM and ENM-IOBM demonstrate large variance of the summer SSTAs in the TPO and TIO, respectively.
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This study is supported by the National Key Research and Development Program (Grant No. 2016YFA0600603), the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 41605058), the Fund of Key Laboratory of Global Change and Marine-Atmospheric Chemistry, SOA (GCMAC1604), and the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities.
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1. The interannual variability of the summer TCGF over the WNP experienced an interdecadal change around the early 1990s.
2. Such an interdecadal change is attributed to the change in the impacts of the individual and combined modes of TIPO SSTAs.
3. This study implies an interdecadal change in the relationship between the TCGF over the WNP and the Indo-Pacific SSTAs around the early 1990s.
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Yong, L., Chen, D. An interdecadal change in the interannual variability of boreal summer tropical cyclone genesis frequency over the western North Pacific around the early 1990s. Theor Appl Climatol 137, 1843–1853 (2019). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-018-2710-3