An interdecadal change in the interannual variability of boreal summer tropical cyclone genesis frequency over the western North Pacific around the early 1990s

Abstract

This study presents an interdecadal change in the interannual variability of the tropical cyclone (TC) genesis frequency (TCGF) over the western North Pacific (WNP) around the early 1990s, which is characterized by decreasing in the periodicity and standard deviation of the total TC number (TCN) and shifting in genesis location of the TC over the WNP. This interdecadal change is largely associated with the changes in the impacts of the individual and combined modes of the sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) in tropical Indo-Pacific Ocean (TIPO). Results indicate that prior to the early 1990s, the interannual variability of the WNP TCGF is closely influenced by the La Niña-like SSTAs in the tropical Pacific Ocean (TPO), which leads to a zonally dipole structure in the WNP TCGF by triggering an anomalous anticyclone over the southeastern WNP and an anomalous cyclone over the northwestern WNP. Since the early 1990s, the interannual variability of the WNP TCGF is attributed to the impacts of the Indian Ocean Basin mode (IOBM) SSTAs in the tropical Indian Ocean (TIO) and the El Niño Modoki-like SSTAs in the TPO, which may work individually and jointly by inducing an anomalous cyclone over the WNP through a Rossby wave-type and a Kelvin wave-type response, respectively. In addition, the IOBM SSTAs in the TIO play a leading role in the impacts on the interannual variability of the WNP TCGF during the recent period. These results also indicate an interdecadal change in the relationship between the TCGF over the WNP and the Indo-Pacific SSTAs, which may provide a good implication for seasonal prediction of the TC activity over the WNP.

This is a preview of subscription content, access via your institution.

Fig. 1
Fig. 2
Fig. 3
Fig. 4
Fig. 5
Fig. 6
Fig. 7
Fig. 8
Fig. 9

Notes

  1. 1.

    The two combined modes reveal similar patterns to the TIPO SSTAs related to the WNP TCN index during P1 and P2, respectively, which account for 27.6 and 13.6% of the total variance of the TIPO SSTAs and are significantly separated based on North et al. (1982). Liu et al. (2018) documented that the ENSO-IODM and ENM-IOBM demonstrate large variance of the summer SSTAs in the TPO and TIO, respectively.

References

  1. Cao X, Chen S, Chen G, Wu R (2016) Intensified impact of northern tropical Atlantic SST on tropical cyclogenesis frequency over the western North Pacific after the late 1980s. Adv Atmos Sci 33:919–930

    Article  Google Scholar 

  2. Chan JCL (1999) Tropical cyclone activity over the Western North Pacific associated with El Niño and La Niña events. J Clim 13:2960–2972

    Article  Google Scholar 

  3. Chan JCL (2005) Interannual and interdecadal variations of tropical cyclone activity over the western North Pacific. Meteorog Atmos Phys 89:143–152

    Article  Google Scholar 

  4. Chand SS, Tory KJ, Ye H, Walsh KJE (2016) Projected increase in El Niño-driven tropical cyclone frequency in the Pacific. Nat Clim Chang 7:123–127

    Article  Google Scholar 

  5. Chen G (2009) Interdecadal variation of tropical cyclone activity in association with summer monsoon, sea surface temperature over the western North Pacific. Sci Bull 54:1417–1421

    Article  Google Scholar 

  6. Chen G (2011) How does shifting Pacific Ocean warming modulate on tropical cyclone frequency over the South China Sea? J Clim 24:4695–4700

    Article  Google Scholar 

  7. Chen G, and Tam C.-Y., (2010) Different impacts of two kinds of Pacific Ocean warming on tropical cyclone frequency over the western North Pacific. Geophys Res Lett, 37, n/a-n/a

  8. Choi Y, Ha KJ, Ho CH, Chung CE (2015) Interdecadal change in typhoon genesis condition over the western North Pacific. Clim Dyn 45:3243–3255. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-015-2536-y

    Article  Google Scholar 

  9. Du Y, Yang L, Xie S-P (2011) Tropical Indian Ocean influence on Northwest Pacific tropical cyclones in summer following strong El Niño. J Clim 24:315–322

    Article  Google Scholar 

  10. Grinsted A, Moore JC, Jevrejeva S (2004) Application of the cross wavelet transform and wavelet coherence to geophysical time series. Nonlinear Process Geophys 11:561–566

    Article  Google Scholar 

  11. Ha K-J, Yoon S-J, Yun K-S, Kug J-S, Jang Y-S, Chan JCL (2012) Dependency of typhoon intensity and genesis locations on El Niño phase and SST shift over the western North Pacific. Theor Appl Climatol 109:383–395

    Article  Google Scholar 

  12. Ha Y, Zhong Z, Yang X, Sun Y (2013) Different Pacific Ocean warming decaying types and Northwest Pacific tropical cyclone activity. J Clim 26:8979–8994

    Article  Google Scholar 

  13. Ha Y, Zhong Z, Yang X, Sun Y (2015) Contribution of East Indian Ocean SSTA to Western North Pacific tropical cyclone activity under El Niño/La Niña conditions. Int J Climatol 35:506–519

    Article  Google Scholar 

  14. He H, Yang J, Gong D, Mao R, Wang Y, Gao M (2015) Decadal changes in tropical cyclone activity over the western North Pacific in the late 1990s. Clim Dyn 45:3317–3329. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-015-2541-1

    Article  Google Scholar 

  15. Lepage Y (1971) A combination of Wilcoxon’s and Ansari-Bradley’s statistics. Biometrika 58:213–217

    Article  Google Scholar 

  16. Li C, Wang C, Zhao T (2017) Influence of two types of ENSO events on tropical cyclones in the western North Pacific during the subsequent year: asymmetric response. Clim Dyn 46:865–877

    Google Scholar 

  17. Liu Y, Huang G, Huang R (2011) Inter-decadal variability of summer rainfall in Eastern China detected by the Lepage test. Theor Appl Climatol 106:481–488

    Article  Google Scholar 

  18. Liu Y, Chen GH (2017) Intensified influence of the ENSO Modoki on boreal summer tropical cyclone genesis over the western North Pacific since the early 1990s. Int J Climatol 38:e1258–e1265. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.5347

    Article  Google Scholar 

  19. Liu Y, Huang P and Chen GH (2018) Influence of the combined modes of the tropical Indo-Pacific SSTAs on the tropical cyclone genesis over the western North Pacific. Submitted to International Journal of Climatology, minor revision.

  20. Kalnay E et al (1996) The NCEP/NCAR 40-year reanalysis project. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 77:437–472

    Article  Google Scholar 

  21. Knapp KR, Kruk MC, Levinson DH, Diamond HJ, Neumann CJ (2010) The international best track archive for climate stewardship (IBTrACS) unifying tropical cyclone data. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 91:363–376

    Article  Google Scholar 

  22. Kim H-M, Webster PJ, Curry JA (2011) Modulation of North Pacific tropical cyclone activity by three phases of ENSO. J Clim 24:1839–1849

    Article  Google Scholar 

  23. Nitta T (1987) Convective activities in the tropical western Pacific and their impact on the Northern Hemisphere summer circulation. J Meteor Soc Japan 65:373–390

    Article  Google Scholar 

  24. North GR, Bell TL, Cahalan RF, Moeng FJ (1982) Sampling errors in the estimation of empirical orthogonal functions. Mon Weather Rev 110:699–706

  25. Pradhan PK, Preethi B, Ashok K, Krishnan R, Sahai AK (2011) Modoki, Indian Ocean dipole, and western North Pacific typhoons: possible implications for extreme events. J Geophys Res 116

  26. Rayner NA et al (2003) Global analyses of sea surface temperature, sea ice, and night marine air temperature since the late nineteenth century. J Geophys Res: Atmospheres 108(D14)

  27. Tao L, Lan Y (2017) Inter-decadal change of the inter-annual relationship between the frequency of intense tropical cyclone over the western North Pacific and ENSO. Int J Climatol 37:4880–4895

    Article  Google Scholar 

  28. Wang L, Huang R, Wu R (2013) Interdecadal variability in tropical cyclone frequency over the South China Sea and its association with the Indian Ocean sea surface temperature. Geophys Res Lett 40:768–771

    Article  Google Scholar 

  29. Wu L, Zhang HJ, Chen JM, Feng T (2018) Impact of two types of El Niño on tropical cyclones over the western North Pacific: sensitivity to location and intensity of pacific warming. J Clim 31(5):1725–1742

  30. Yonetani T, McCabe GJ (1994) Abrupt changes in regional temperature in the conterminous United States, 1895–1989. Clim Res 4:13–23

    Article  Google Scholar 

  31. Yeh S-W, Kang S-K, Kirtman BP, Kim J-H, Kwon M-H, Kim C-H (2010) Decadal change in relationship between western North Pacific tropical cyclone frequency and the tropical Pacific SST. Meteorog Atmos Phys 106:179–189

    Article  Google Scholar 

  32. Yu J, Chen C, Li T, Zhao X, Xue H, Sun Q (2016a) Contribution of major SSTA modes to the climate variability of tropical cyclone genesis frequency over the western North Pacific. Q J R Meteorol Soc 142:1171–1181

    Article  Google Scholar 

  33. Yu J, Li T, Tan Z, Zhu Z (2016b) Effects of tropical North Atlantic SST on tropical cyclone genesis in the western North Pacific. Clim Dyn 46(3–4):865–877

    Article  Google Scholar 

  34. Zhan R, Wang Y, Lei X (2011) Contributions of ENSO and East Indian Ocean SSTA to the interannual variability of Northwest Pacific tropical cyclone frequency *. J Clim 24:509–521

    Article  Google Scholar 

  35. Zhan R, Wang Y, Tao L (2014) Intensified impact of East Indian Ocean SST anomaly on tropical cyclone genesis frequency over the Western North Pacific. J Clim 27:8724–8739

    Article  Google Scholar 

  36. Zhao H, Wang C (2018) On the relationship between ENSO and tropical cyclones in the western North Pacific during the boreal summer. Clim Dyn. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-00018-04136-00380

Download references

Acknowledgments

This study is supported by the National Key Research and Development Program (Grant No. 2016YFA0600603), the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 41605058), the Fund of Key Laboratory of Global Change and Marine-Atmospheric Chemistry, SOA (GCMAC1604), and the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities.

Author information

Affiliations

Authors

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Liu Yong.

Additional information

Publisher’s Note

Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.

Key findings

1. The interannual variability of the summer TCGF over the WNP experienced an interdecadal change around the early 1990s.

2. Such an interdecadal change is attributed to the change in the impacts of the individual and combined modes of TIPO SSTAs.

3. This study implies an interdecadal change in the relationship between the TCGF over the WNP and the Indo-Pacific SSTAs around the early 1990s.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and Permissions

About this article

Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this article

Yong, L., Chen, D. An interdecadal change in the interannual variability of boreal summer tropical cyclone genesis frequency over the western North Pacific around the early 1990s. Theor Appl Climatol 137, 1843–1853 (2019). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-018-2710-3

Download citation