Abstract
Three large ocean currents are represented by proxy time series: the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). We here show how proxies for the currents interact with each other and with the global temperature anomaly (GTA). Our results are obtained by a novel method, which identifies running average leading–lagging (LL) relations, between paired series. We find common cycle times for a paired series of 6–7 and 25–28 years and identify years when the LL relations switch. Switching occurs with 18.4 ± 14.3-year intervals for the short 6–7-year cycles and with 27 ± 15-year intervals for the 25–28-year cycles. During the period 1940–1950, the LL relations for the long cycles were circular (nomenclature x leads y: x → y): GTA → NAO → SOI → PDO → GTA. However, after 1960, the LL relations become more complex and there are indications that GTA leads to both NAO and PDO. The switching years are related to ocean current tie points and reversals reported in the literature.
Similar content being viewed by others
Notes
It can be implemented in Excel format: with v1 = (A1,A2,A3) and v2 = (B1,B2,B3) in an Excel spread sheet, the angle is calculated by pasting the following Excel expression into C2: = SIGN((A2-A1)*(B3-B2)-(B2-B1)*(A3-A2))*ACOS(((A2-A1)*(A3-A2) + (B2-B1)*(B3-B2))/(SQRT((A2-A1)^2+(B2-B1)^2)*SQRT((A3-A2)^2+(B3-B2)^2))).
References
Biondi F, Gershunov A, Cayan DR (2001) North Pacific decadal climate variability since 1661. J Clim 14(1):5–10
Bryden HL, Longworth HR, Cunningham SA (2005) Slowing of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation at 25 degrees N. Nature 438(7068):655–657
Caesar L, Rahmstorf S, Robinson A, Feulner G, Saba V (2018) Observed fingerprints of weakening Atlantic Ocean overturning circulation. Nature 556:191–196
Cai WJ, Wang GJ, Santoso A, McPhaden MJ, Wu LX, Jin FF, Timmermann A, Collins M, Vecchi G, Lengaigne M, England MH, Dommenget D, Takahashi K, Guilyardi E (2015) Increased frequency of extreme La Nina events under greenhouse warming. Nat Clim Chang 5(2):132–137
Chen XY, Wallace JM (2015) ENSO-like variability: 1900-2013. J Clim 28(24):9623–9641
Chylek P, Dubey MK, Lesins G, Li JN, Hengartner N (2014) Imprint of the Atlantic multi-decadal oscillation and Pacific decadal oscillation on Southwestern US climate: past, present, and future. Clim Dyn 43(1–2):119–129
Dai AG, Fyfe JC, Xie SP, Dai XG (2015) Decadal modulation of global surface temperature by internal climate variability. Nat Clim Chang 5(6):555–559
Davis XJ, Rothstein LM, Dewar WK, Menemenlis D (2011) Numerical investigations of seasonal and interannual variability of North Pacific subtropical mode water and its implications for Pacific climate variability. J Clim 24(11):2648–2665
Duchez A, Hirsch JJM, Cunningham SA, Blaker AT, Bryden HL, de Cuevas B, Atkinson CP, McCarthy GD, Frajka-Williams E, Rayner D, Smeed D, Mizielinski MS (2014) A new index for the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation at 26 degrees N. J Clim 27(17):6439–6455
Durski SM, Kurapov AL, Allen JS, Kosro PM, Egbert GD, Shearman RK, Barth JA (2015) Coastal ocean variability in the US Pacific Northwest region: seasonal patterns, winter circulation, and the influence of the 2009-2010 El Niño. Ocean Dyn 65(12):1643–1663
Finlay K, Vogt RJ, Bogard MJ, Wissel B, Tutolo BM, Simpson GL, Leavitt PR (2015) Decrease in CO2 efflux from northern hardwater lakes with increasing atmospheric warming. Nature 519(7542):215–218
Gehne M, Kleeman R, Trenberth KE (2014) Irregularity and decadal variation in ENSO: a simplified model based on principal oscillatory patterns. Clim Dyn 43:3327–3350
Graham NE, Ammann CM, Fleitmann D, Cobb KM, Luterbacher J (2011) Support for global climate reorganization during the “Medieval Climate Anomaly”. Clim Dyn 37(5–6):1217–1245
Granger CWJ (1969) Investigating causal relations by econometric models and cross-spectral methods. Econometrica 37(3):423–438
Hartmann, D. L. (2016) Objective analysis. 2016, from http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~dennis/552_Notes_ftp.html
Hedemann C, Mauritsen T, Jungclaus J, Marotzke J (2017) The subtle origins of surface-warming hiatuses. Nat Clim Chang 7(5):336–339
Hurrell JW (1995) Decadal trends in the North-Atlantic Oscillation—regional temperatures and precipitation. Science 269(5224):676–679
Johnson GC, Lyman JM, Loeb NG (2016) Correspondence: improving estimates of Earth’s energy imbalance. Nat Clim Chang 6(7):639–640
Keeling CD, Whorf TP (1997) Possible forcing of global temperature by oceanic tides. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 94:8321–8328
Kestin TS, Karoly DJ, Yang JI, Rayner NA (1998) Time-frequency variability of ENSO and stochastic simulations. J Clim 11(9):2258–2272
Kuo C, Lindberg C, Thomson DJ (1990) Coherence established between atmospheric carbon-dioxide and global temperature. Nature 343(6260):709–714
Loeb NG, Lyman JM, Johnson GC, Allan RP, Doelling DR, Wong T, Soden BJ, Stephens GL (2012) Observed changes in top-of-the-atmosphere radiation and upper-ocean heating consistent within uncertainty. Nat Geosci 5(2):110–113
Luterbacher J, Xoplaki E, Dietrich D, Rickli R, Jacobeit J, Beck C, Gyalistras D, Schmutz C, Wanner H (2002) Reconstruction of sea level pressure fields over the Eastern North Atlantic and Europe back to 1500. Clim Dyn 18(7):545–561
Lynch-Stieglitz J (2017) The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation and abrupt climate change. Annu Rev Mar Sci 9(9):83–104
Mazzarella A, Scafetta N (2012) Evidences for a quasi 60-year North Atlantic Oscillation since 1700 and its meaning for global climate change. Theor Appl Climatol 107(3–4):599–609
McCarthy GD, Haigh ID, Hirschi JJM, Grist JP, Smeed DA (2015a) Ocean impact on decadal Atlantic climate variability revealed by sea-level observations. Nature 521(7553):508–U172
McCarthy GD, Smeed DA, Johns WE, Frajka-Williams E, Moat BI, Rayner D, Baringer MO, Meinen CS, Collins J, Bryden HL (2015b) Measuring the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation at 26 degrees N. Prog Oceanogr 130:91–111
McPhaden MJ (1999) Genesis and evolution of the 1997-98 El Niño. Science 283(5404):950–954
Meehl GA, Arblaster JM, Fasullo JT, Hu AX, Trenberth KE (2011) Model-based evidence of deep-ocean heat uptake during surface-temperature hiatus periods. Nat Clim Chang 1(7):360–364
Meehl GA, Teng HY, Arblaster JM (2014) Climate model simulations of the observed early-2000s hiatus of global warming. Nat Clim Chang 4(10):898–902
Meehl GA, Arblaster JM, Chung CTY (2015) Disappearance of the Southeast US “warming hole” with the late 1990s transition of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation. Geophys Res Lett 42(13):5564–5570
Minobe S (1997) A 50-70 year climatic oscillation over the North Pacific and North America. Geophys Res Lett 24(6):683–686
NASA (GISTEMP) (2014) GISS Surface Temperature Analysis (GISTEMP). 2014, from http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp
Nieves V, Willis JK, Patzert WC (2015) Recent hiatus caused by decadal shift in Indo-Pacific heating. Science 349(6247):532–535
Power S, Haylock M, Colman R, Wang XD (2006) The predictability of interdecadal changes in ENSO activity and ENSO teleconnections. J Clim 19(19):4755–4771
Reid PC, Hari RE, Beaugrand G, Livingstone DM, Marty C, Straile D, Barichivich J, Goberville E, Adrian R, Aono Y, Brown R, Foster J, Groisman P, Helaouet P, Hsu HH, Kirby R, Knight J, Kraberg A, Li JP, Lo TT, Myneni RB, North RP, Pounds JA, Sparks T, Stubi R, Tian YJ, Wiltshire KH, Xiao D, Zhu ZC (2016) Global impacts of the 1980s regime shift. Glob Chang Biol 22(2):682–703
Salinger MJ, Renwick JA, Mullan AB (2001) Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation and South Pacific climate. Int J Climatol 21(14):1705–1721
Seip KL (2015) Investigating possible causal relations among physical, chemical and biological variables across regions in the Gulf of Maine. Hydrobiologia 744:127–143
Seip KL, Grøn Ø (2017a) A new method for identifying possible causal relationships between CO2, total solar irradiance and global temperature change. Theor Appl Climatol 127:923–938
Seip KL, Grøn Ø (2017b) On the statistical nature of distinct cycles in global warming variables. Clim Dyn https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-016-3508-6
Stocker, T. F. and S. J. Johnsen. 2003 A minimum thermodynamic model for the bipolar seesaw. Paleoceanography 18(4) https://doi.org/10.1029/2003pa000920
Swanson KL, Tsonis AA 2009 Has the climate recently shifted? Geophys Res Lett 36 https://doi.org/10.1029/2008gl037022
Tasambay-Salazar M, OrtizBevia MJ, Alvarez-Garcia FJ, RuizdeElvira AM (2015) An estimation of ENSO predictability from its seasonal teleconnections (vol 122, pg 383, 2015). Theor Appl Climatol 122(1–2):401–401
Thompson DM, Cole JE, Shen GT, Tudhope AW, Meehl GA (2015) Early twentieth-century warming linked to tropical Pacific wind strength. Nat Geosci 8(2):117–121
Thornalley DJR, Oppo DW, Ortega P, Robson JI, Brierley CM, Davis R, Hall IR, Moffa-Sanchez P, Rose NL, Spooner PT, Yashayaev I, Keigwin LD (2018) Anomalously weak Labrador Sea convection and Atlantic overturning during the past 150 years. Nature 556(7700):227–230
Torrence C, Webster PJ (1999) Interdecadal changes in the ENSO-monsoon system. J Clim 12(8):2679–2690
Trenberth KE (2015) Has there been a hiatus? Science 349(6249):691–692
Trenberth KE, Fasullo JT (2013) An apparent hiatus in global warming? Earths Future 1(1):19–32
Wang SY, L’Heureux M, Yoon JH (2013) Are greenhouse gases changing ENSO precursors in the Western North Pacific? J Clim 26(17):6309–6322
White WB, Cayan DR (1998) Quasi periodicity and global symmetries in interdecadal upper ocean temperature variability. J Geophys Res 103:21335–21354
Wu S, Liu ZY, Zhang R, Delworth TL (2011) On the observed relationship between the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation. J Oceanogr 67(1):27–35
Yao S-L, Huang G, Wu R-G, Qu X (2016) The global hiatus—a natural product of interactions of a secular warming trend and a multi-decadal oscillation. Theor Appl Climatol 123:349–360
Yao SL, Luo JJ, Huang G, Wang PF (2017) Distinct global warming rates tied to multiple ocean surface temperature changes. Nat Clim Chang 7(7):486–491
Zhang LP, Wang CZ (2013) Multidecadal North Atlantic Sea surface temperature and Atlantic meridional overturning circulation variability in CMIP5 historical simulations. J Geophys Res Oceans 118(10):5772–5791
Zhang RH, Rothstein LM, Busalacchi AJ (1998) Origin of upper-ocean warming and El Niño change on decadal scales in the tropical Pacific Ocean. Nature 391(6670):879–883
Zhen-Shan L, Xian S (2007) Multi-scale analysis of global temperature changes and trend of drop in temperature in the next 20 years. Meteorog Atmos Phys 95:115–121
Zhu J, Zhou G, Zhang RH, Sun Z (2011) On the role of oceanic entrainment temperature (T-e) in decadal changes of El Niño/Southern Oscillation. Ann Geophys 29(3):529–540
Acknowledgements
We would like to thank the OsloMet-Oslo Metropolitan University for the necessary resources required to complete this paper.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Ethics declarations
Conflict of interest
The authors declare that they have no conflict of interests.
Electronic supplementary material
ESM 1
(DOCX 3205 kb)
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Seip, K.L., Grøn, Ø. Cycles in oceanic teleconnections and global temperature change. Theor Appl Climatol 136, 985–1000 (2019). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-018-2533-2
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-018-2533-2