Skip to main content

Spatial distribution of unidirectional trends in temperature and temperature extremes in Pakistan

Abstract

Pakistan is one of the most vulnerable countries of the world to temperature extremes due to its predominant arid climate and geographic location in the fast temperature rising zone. Spatial distribution of the trends in annual and seasonal temperatures and temperature extremes over Pakistan has been assessed in this study. The gauge-based gridded daily temperature data of Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature (BEST) having a spatial resolution of 1° × 1° was used for the assessment of trends over the period 1960–2013 using modified Mann-Kendall test (MMK), which can discriminate the multi-decadal oscillatory variations from secular trends. The results show an increase in the annual average of daily maximum and minimum temperatures in 92 and 99% area of Pakistan respectively at 95% level of confidence. The annual temperature is increasing faster in southern high-temperature region compared to other parts of the country. The minimum temperature is rising faster (0.17–0.37 °C/decade) compared to maximum temperature (0.17–0.29 °C/decade) and therefore declination of diurnal temperature range (DTR) (− 0.15 to − 0.08 °C/decade) in some regions. The annual numbers of both hot and cold days are increasing in whole Pakistan except in the northern sub-Himalayan region. Heat waves are on the rise, especially in the hot Sindh plains and the Southern coastal region, while the cold waves are becoming lesser in the northern cold region. Obtained results contradict with the findings of previous studies on temperature trends, which indicate the need for reassessment of climatic trends in Pakistan using the MMK test to understand the anthropogenic impacts of climate change.

This is a preview of subscription content, access via your institution.

Fig. 1
Fig. 2
Fig. 3
Fig. 4
Fig. 5
Fig. 6
Fig. 7

References

  • Abbas F (2013) Analysis of a historical (1981–2010) temperature record of the Punjab province of Pakistan. Earth Interact 17(15):1–23

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Abbas F, Rehman I, Adrees M, Ibrahim M, Saleem F, Ali S, Rizwan M, Salik MR (2018) Prevailing trends of climatic extremes across Indus-Delta of Sindh-Pakistan. Theor Appl Climatol 131:1101–1117

  • Ahmed K, Shahid S, Harun SB (2014) Spatial interpolation of climatic variables in a predominantly arid region with complex topography. Environ Syst Decis 34:555–563

  • Ahmed K, Shahid S, Haroon SB, Xiao-Jun W (2015) Multilayer perceptron neural network for downscaling rainfall in arid region: a case study of Baluchistan, Pakistan. J Earth Syst Sci 124(6):1325–1341

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ahmed K, Shahid S, bin Harun S, Wang XJ (2016) Characterization of seasonal droughts in Balochistan Province, Pakistan. Stoch Env Res Risk A 30(2):747–762

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ahmed K, Shahid S, Chung E, Ismail T, Wang X (2017a) Spatial distribution of secular trends in annual and seasonal precipitation over Pakistan. Clim Res 74:95–107. https://doi.org/10.3354/cr01489

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ahmed K, Shahid S, Ali RO, Harun SB, Wang XJ (2017b) Evaluation of the performance of gridded precipitation products over Balochistan Province, Pakistan. Desalination 1:14

    Google Scholar 

  • Alexander LV (2016) Global observed long-term changes in temperature and precipitation extremes: a review of progress and limitations in IPCC assessments and beyond. Weather Clim Extrem 11:4–16

  • Araghi A, Mousavi-Baygi M, Adamowski J (2016) Detection of trends in days with extreme temperatures in Iran from 1961 to 2010. Theor Appl Climatol 125(1–2):213–225

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Aslam AQ, Ahmad SR, Ahmad I, Hussain Y, Hussain MS (2017) Vulnerability and impact assessment of extreme climatic event: a case study of southern Punjab, Pakistan. Sci Total Environ 580:468–481

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Asseng S, Ewert F, Rosenzweig C, Jones JW, Hatfield JL, Ruane AC et al (2013) Uncertainty in simulating wheat yields under climate change. Nat Clim Chang 3(9):827–832

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Braganza K, Karoly D, Hirst A, Mann M, Stott P, Stouffer R, Tett S (2003) Simple indices of global climate variability and change: part I—variability and correlation structure. Clim Dyn 20(5):491–502

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Brown SJ, Caesar J, Ferro CAT (2008) Global changes in extreme daily temperature since 1950. J Geophys Res 113:D05115. https://doi.org/10.1029/2006JD008091

  • Buytaert W, Friesen J, Liebe J, Ludwig R (2012) Assessment and management of water resources in developing, semi-arid and arid regions. Water Resour Manag 26(4):841–844

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Chakraborty A, Seshasai MVR, Rao SK, Dadhwal VK (2017) Geo-spatial analysis of temporal trends of temperature and its extremes over India using daily gridded (1°×1°) temperature data of 1969–2005. Theor Appl Climatol 130(1–2):133–149

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Chen Y, Zhai P (2017) Revisiting summertime hot extremes in China during 1961–2015: Overlooked compound extremes and significant changes. Geophys Res Lett

  • Chu PS, Wang J (1997) Tropical cyclone occurrences in the vicinity of Hawaii: are the differences between El Niño and non-El Niño years significant? J Clim 10(10):2683–2689

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Dai A (2013) Increasing drought under global warming in observations and models. Nat Clim Chang 3(1):52–58

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Darand M, Masoodian A, Nazaripour H, Daneshvar MM (2015) Spatial and temporal trend analysis of temperature extremes based on Iranian climatic database (1962–2004). Arab J Geosci 8(10):8469–8480

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ehsanzadeh E, Adamowski K (2010) Trends in timing of low stream flows in Canada: impact of autocorrelation and long-term persistence. Hydrol Process 24(8):970–980

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Fang S, Qi Y, Han G, Zhou G (2015) Changing trends and abrupt features of extreme temperature in mainland China during 1960 to 2010. Earth Syst Dyn Discuss 6:979–1000

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Fathian F, Dehghan Z, Bazrkar MH, Eslamian S (2016) Trends in hydrological and climatic variables affected by four variations of the Mann-Kendall approach in Urmia Lake basin, Iran. Hydrol Sci J 61(5):892–904

    Google Scholar 

  • Frías MD, Mínguez R, Gutiérrez JM, Méndez FJ (2012) Future regional projections of extreme temperatures in Europe: a nonstationary seasonal approach. Clim Chang 113(2):371–392

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Grotjahn R, Black R, Leung R, Wehner MF, Barlow M, Bosilovich M, Gershunov A, Gutowski WJ, Gyakum JR, Katz RW (2016) North American extreme temperature events and related large scale meteorological patterns: a review of statistical methods, dynamics, modeling, and trends. Clim Dyn 46(3–4):1151–1184

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hamed KH (2008) Trend detection in hydrologic data: the Mann–Kendall trend test under the scaling hypothesis. J Hydrol 349(3):350–363

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hamed K (2009) Exact distribution of the Mann–Kendall trend test statistic for persistent data. J Hydrol 365(1):86–94

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hamed KH, Rao AR (1998) A modified Mann-Kendall trend test for autocorrelated data. J Hydrol 204(1–4):182–196

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • IFAD (2012). International Fund for Agricultural Development, 2012. The state of food insecurity in the world, 1–63.

  • IPCC (2014) In: Pachauri RK, Meyer LA (eds) Climate change 2014: synthesis report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. IPCC, Geneva 151 pp

    Google Scholar 

  • Iqbal MA, Penas A, Cano-Ortiz A, Kersebaum K, Herrero L, Del Río S (2016) Analysis of recent changes in maximum and minimum temperatures in Pakistan. Atmos Res 168:234–249

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Islam S, Rehman N, Sheikh MM (2009) Future change in the frequency of warm and cold spells over Pakistan simulated by the PRECIS regional climate model. Clim Chang 94(1–2):35–45

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Jahangir M, Ali SM, Khalid B (2016) Annual minimum temperature variations in early 21st century in Punjab, Pakistan. J Atmos Sol Terr Phys 137:1–9

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Jaswal AK, Rao PCS, Singh V (2015) Climatology and trends of summer high temperature days in India during 1969–2013. J Earth Syst Sci 124(1):1–15

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Karoly DJ, Braganza K, Stott PA, Arblaster JM, Meehl GA, Broccoli AJ, Dixon KW (2003) Detection of a human influence on North American climate. Science 302(5648):1200–1203. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1089159.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kothawale DR, Revadekar JV, Kumar KR (2010) Recent trends in pre-monsoon daily temperature extremes over India. J Earth Syst Sci 119(1):51–65

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Koutsoyiannis D (2003) Climate change, the Hurst phenomenon, and hydrological statistics. Hydrol Sci J 48(1):3–24

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kumar S, Merwade V, Kam J, Thurner K (2009) Streamflow trends in Indiana: effects of long term persistence, precipitation and subsurface drains. J Hydrol 374(1):171–183

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Lacombe G, Hoanh CT, Smakhtin V (2012) Multi-year variability or unidirectional trends? Mapping long-term precipitation and temperature changes in continental Southeast Asia using PRECIS regional climate model. Clim Chang 113(2):285–299

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Lelieveld J, Proestos Y, Hadjinicolaou P, Tanarhte M, Tyrlis E, Zittis G (2016) Strongly increasing heat extremes in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) in the 21st century. Clim Chang 137:1–16. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-016-1665-6.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Li J, Zhu Z, Dong W (2017) A new mean-extreme vector for the trends of temperature and precipitation over China during 1960–2013. Meteorog Atmos Phys 129(3):273–282

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Mahmood R, Babel MS (2014) Future changes in extreme temperature events using the statistical downscaling model (SDSM) in the trans-boundary region of the Jhelum river basin. Weather Clim Extrem 5:56–66

  • Masood I, Majid Z, Sohail S, Zia A, Raza S (2015) The deadly heat wave of Pakistan, June 2015. Int J Occup Environ Me 6:672–247–678

  • McLeod AI, Hipel KW (1978) Preservation of the rescaled adjusted range: 1. A reassessment of the Hurst phenomenon. Water Resour Res 14(3):491–508

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Mehrotra D, Mehrotra R (1995) Climate change and hydrology with emphasis on the Indian subcontinent. Hydrol Sci J 40(2):231–242

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Mohsenipour M, Shahid S, Chung E-s, Wang X-j (2018) Changing Pattern of Droughts during Cropping Seasons of Bangladesh. Water Resour Manag 32:1555–1568

  • Mora C, Dousset B, Caldwell IR, Powell FE, Geronimo RC, Bielecki CR et al (2017) Global risk of deadly heat. Nature Climate Change 7(7):nclimate3322

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Naser MM (2011) Climate change, environmental degradation, and migration: a complex nexus. Wm. & Mary Envtl. L. & Pol’y Rev. 36:713

    Google Scholar 

  • Panda DK, AghaKouchak A, Ambast SK (2017) Increasing heat waves and warm spells in India, observed from a multiaspect framework. J Geophys Res Atmos 122(7):3837–3858

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Pingale SM, Khare D, Jat MK, Adamowski J (2014) Spatial and temporal trends of mean and extreme rainfall and temperature for the 33 urban centers of the arid and semi-arid state of Rajasthan, India. Atmos Res 138:73–90

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Qamar-uz-Zaman C, Mahmood A, Rasul G, Afzaal M (2009) Climate change indicator of Pakistan. Pakistan Meteorological Department

  • Qasim M, Khlaid S, Shams DF (2014) Spatiotemporal variations and trends in minimum and maximum temperatures of Pakistan. J Appl Environ Biol Sci 4(8S):85–93

    Google Scholar 

  • Rahimzadeh F, Asgari A, Fattahi E (2009) Variability of extreme temperature and precipitation in Iran during recent decades. Int J Climatol 29(3):329–343

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Rahmstorf S, Foster G, Cahill N (2017) Global temperature evolution: recent trends and some pitfalls. Environ Res Lett 12(5):054001

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Revadekar JV, Kothawale DR, Patwardhan SK, Pant GB, Kumar KR (2012) About the observed and future changes in temperature extremes over India. Nat Hazards 60(3):1133–1155

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Rio S, Anjum Iqbal M, Cano-Ortiz A, Herrero L, Hassan A, Penas A (2013) Recent mean temperature trends in Pakistan and links with teleconnection patterns. Int J Climatol 33(2):277–290

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Sa'adi Z, Shahid S, Chung ES, bin Ismail T (2017) Projection of spatial and temporal changes of rainfall in Sarawak of Borneo Island using statistical downscaling of CMIP5 models. Atmos Res 197:446–460

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Salman SA, Shahid S, Ismail T, Rahman NBA, Wang X, Chung ES (2017a) Unidirectional trends in daily rainfall extremes of Iraq. Theor Appl Climatol 1–13. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-017-2336-x

  • Salman SA, Shahid S, Ismail T, Chung ES, Al-Abadi AM (2017b) Long-term trends in daily temperature extremes in Iraq. Atmos Res 198:97–107

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Salman SA, Shahid S, Mohsenipour M, Asgari H (2018) Impact of landuse on groundwater quality of Bangladesh. Sustain Water Resour Manag 1–6. https://doi.org/10.1007/s40899-018-0230-z

  • Samadi S, Carbone G, Mahdavi M, Sharifi F, Bihamta M (2012) Statistical downscaling of climate data to estimate streamflow in a semi-arid catchment. Hydrol Earth Syst Sci Discuss 9(4):4869–4918

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Sen PK (1968) Estimates of the regression coefficient based on Kendall’s tau. J Am Stat Assoc 63(324):1379–1389

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Serra C, Burgueño A, Martinez MD, Lana X (2006) Trends in dry spells across Catalonia (NE Spain) during the second half of the 20th century. Theor Appl Climatol 85(3–4):165–183

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Shahid S (2011) Trends in extreme rainfall events of Bangladesh. Theor Appl Climatol 104(3–4):489–499

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Shahid S, Harun SB, Katimon A (2012) Changes in diurnal temperature range in Bangladesh during the time period 1961–2008. Atmos Res 118:260–270

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Shahid S, Minhans A, Puan OC (2014) Assessment of greenhouse gas emission reduction measures in transportation sector of Malaysia. Jurnal Teknologi 70(4):1–8

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Shahid S, Wang XJ, Harun SB, Shamsudin SB, Ismail T, Minhans A (2016) Climate variability and changes in the major cities of Bangladesh: observations, possible impacts and adaptation. Reg Environ Chang 16(2):459–471

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Sheikh MM, Manzoor N, Ashraf J, Adnan M, Collins D, Hameed S et al (2015) Trends in extreme daily rainfall and temperature indices over South Asia. Int J Climatol 35(7):1625–1637

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Shiru MS, Shahid S, Alias N, Chung ES (2018) Trend analysis of droughts during crop growing seasons of Nigeria. Sustainability 10(3):871

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Soltani M, Laux P, Kunstmann H, Stan K, Sohrabi MM, Molanejad M et al (2016) Assessment of climate variations in temperature and precipitation extreme events over Iran. Theor Appl Climatol 126(3–4):775–795

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Taghavi F (2010) Linkage between climate change and extreme events in Iran. J Earth Space Physics 36(2):33–4

  • Vizy EK, Cook KH, Crétat J, Neupane N (2013) Projections of a wetter Sahel in the twenty-first century from global and regional models. J Clim 26(13):4664–4687. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00533.1

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wang H, Chen Y, Chen Z, Li W (2013) Changes in annual and seasonal temperature extremes in the arid region of China, 1960–2010. Nat Hazards 65(3):1913–1930

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wang N, Xia J, Yin J, Liu X (2016a) Trend analysis of land surface temperatures using time series segmentation algorithm. Journal of Intelligent & Fuzzy Systems 31(2):1121–1131

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wang X-j, Zhang J-y, Shahid S, Guan E-h, Wu Y-x, Gao J, He R-m (2016b) Adaptation to climate change impacts on water demand. Mitig Adapt 21:81–99

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wu X, Wang Z, Zhou X, Lai C, Chen X (2017) Trends in temperature extremes over nine integrated agricultural regions in China, 1961–2011. Theor Appl Climatol 129(3–4):1279–1294

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • You Q, Kang S, Aguilar E, Yan Y (2008) Changes in daily climate extremes in the eastern and central Tibetan Plateau during 1961–2005. J Geophys Res Atmos 113(D7)

  • You Q, Kang S, Aguilar E, Pepin N, Flügel WA, Yan Y, Xu Y, Zhang Y, Huang J (2011) Changes in daily climate extremes in China and their connection to the large scale atmospheric circulation during 1961–2003. Clim Dyn 36(11–12):2399–2417

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Yue S, Wang CY (2002) Applicability of prewhitening to eliminate the influence of serial correlation on the Mann-Kendall test. Water Resour Res 38(6):4-1–4-7

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Yue S, Wang C (2004) The Mann-Kendall test modified by effective sample size to detect trend in serially correlated hydrological series. Water Resour Manag 18(3):201–218

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Zahid M, Rasul G (2011) Frequency of extreme temperature and precipitation events in Pakistan 1965–2009. Sci Int (Lahore) 23(4):313–319

    Google Scholar 

  • Zhang X, Zwiers FW, Li G (2004) Monte Carlo experiments on the detection of trends in extreme values. J Clim 17(10):1945–1952

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Zhang Q, Xu CY, Zhang Z, Chen YD (2009) Changes of temperature extremes for 1960–2004 in Far-West China. Stoch Env Res Risk A 23(6):721–735

    Article  Google Scholar 

Download references

Acknowledgements

The authors are grateful to Universiti Teknologi Malaysia for providing financial support for this research through GUP Grant No. 19H44 and 14J27.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

Authors

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Najeebullah Khan.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and Permissions

About this article

Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this article

Khan, N., Shahid, S., Ismail, T.b. et al. Spatial distribution of unidirectional trends in temperature and temperature extremes in Pakistan. Theor Appl Climatol 136, 899–913 (2019). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-018-2520-7

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-018-2520-7