Upper-Level Mediterranean Oscillation index and seasonal variability of rainfall and temperature
- 158 Downloads
The need for early seasonal forecasts stimulates continuous research in climate teleconnections. The large variability of the Mediterranean climate presents a greater difficulty in predicting climate anomalies. This article reviews teleconnection indices commonly used for the Mediterranean basin and explores possible extensions of one of them, the Mediterranean Oscillation index (MOi). In particular, the anomalies of the geopotential height field at 500 hPa are analyzed using segmentation of the Mediterranean basin in seven spatial windows: three at eastern and four at western. That is, different versions of an Upper-Level Mediterranean Oscillation index (ULMOi) were calculated, and monthly and annual variability of precipitation and temperature were analyzed for 53 observatories from 1951 to 2015. Best versions were selected according to the Pearson correlation, its related p value, and two measures of standardized error. The combination of the Balearic Sea and Libya/Egypt windows was the best for precipitation and temperature, respectively. The ULMOi showed the highest predictive ability in combination with the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation index (AMOi) for the annual temperature throughout the Mediterranean basin. The best model built from the indices presented a final mean error between 15 and 25% in annual precipitation for most of the studied area.
Thanks to my tutor Belén Rodríguez Fonseca, from the Complutense University of Madrid. Thanks also to the Climate Research Unit (CRU) of the University of East Anglia and to NOAA for the data provided to conduct this study. Some authors are members of the Climatology Group (2014 SGR 300, Catalan Government) and thanks to the WEMOTOR project (CSO2014-55799-C2-1-R), funded by the Spanish Ministry of Economy, Industry and Competitiveness, generously contributed to this research. Finally we want to highlight the support received from the RESCCUE project, which has received funding from the European Research Council (ERC) under the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme (grant agreement n° 700174).
- Conte M, Giuffrida A, Tedesco S (1989) The Mediterranean Oscillation, impact on precipitation and hydrology in Italy. Proceedings of Conference on Climate, Water. Publications of the Academy of Finland, Helsinki, p. 121–137.Google Scholar
- Criado-Aldeanueva F, Soto-Navarro FJ (2013, 2013) The Mediterranean Oscillation teleconnection index: station-based versus principal component paradigms. Adv Meteorol:ID738501. https://doi.org/10.1155/2013/738501CRU, 2017
- Cortesi N, Gonzalez-Hidalgo JC, Brunetti M, Martin-Vide J (2012) Daily precipitation concentration across Europe 1971-2010. Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 12: 2799-2810.Google Scholar
- CRU (2017) Mediterranean Oscillation index (MOI) data. Climate Research Unit. https://crudata.uea.ac.uk/cru/data/moi/ Accessed 31 July 2017
- ECA&D (2017) European Climate Assessment & Dataset. http://www.ecad.eu/dailydata/index.php. Accessed 31 July 2017
- Efroymson MA (1960) In: Ralston A, Wilf HS (eds) Multiple regression analysis Mathematical Methods for Digital Computers. Wiley, New YorkGoogle Scholar
- Fedorov AV (2007) Ocean-Atmosphere Coupling. Oxford Companion to Global Change. Yale University, New HavenGoogle Scholar
- González-Hidalgo JC, López Bustins JA, Stepánek P, Martín Vide J, Luís M (2009) Monthly precipitation trends on the Mediterranean fringe of the Iberian Peninsula during the second-half of the twentieth century. Int J Climatol 29:1415–1429Google Scholar
- Hitchman MH, Huesmann AS (2007) A Seasonal Climatology of Rossby Wave Breaking in the 320–2000-K Layer. J Atmos Sci 64:1922–1940Google Scholar
- Holton JR (1972) An introduction to dynamic meteorology. Academic Press, New York, 319 ppGoogle Scholar
- JISAO (2017) Joint Institute for the Study of Atmosphere and Ocean http://jisao.washington.edu/data_landing (accessed on 31 July 2017).
- Jones PD, Jonsson T, Wheeler D (1997) Extension to the North Atlantic Oscillation using early instrumental pressure observations from Gibraltar and South-West Iceland. International Journal of Climatology 17(13):1433–1450. https://doi.org/10.1002/(SICI)1097-0088(19971115)17:13<1433::AID-JOC203>3.0.CO;2-P CrossRefGoogle Scholar
- López-Bustins JA, Sánchez-Lorenzo A, Azorín-Molina C, Ordóñez-López A (2008) Tendencias de la precipitación invernal en la fachada oriental de la Península Ibérica. In: Sigró J, Brunet M, Aguilar E. (eds.): Cambio climático regional y sus impactos. 161–171. Publicaciones de la Asociación Española de Climatología. Serie A n° 6.Google Scholar
- Maheras P, Xoplaki E, Davies T, Martin-Vide J, Bariendos M, Alcoforado MJ (1999a) Warm and cold monthly anomalies across the Mediterranean basin and their relationship with circulation; 1860–1990. Int J Climatol 19:1697–1715. https://doi.org/10.1002/(SICI)1097-0088(199912)19:15<1697::AID-JOC442>3.0.CO;2-S CrossRefGoogle Scholar
- Mitchell, T. (2016) Sahel precipitation index, Joint Institute for the Study of the Atmosphere and Ocean, Univ. of Washington, doi: https://doi.org/10.6069/H5MW2F2Q. Link: http://research.jisao.washington.edu/data_sets/sahel/ (accessed on 31 July 2017).
- Monjo R, Pórtoles J, Ribalaygua J (2013) Detection of inhomogeneities in daily data: a test based in the Kolmogorov-Smirnov goodness-of-fit test. 9th Data Management Workshop of EUMETNET, El Escorial, Madrid.Google Scholar
- NOAA (2017) Climate Indices. Enlace: http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/ climateindices/list/ (accessed on 31 July 2017).
- O'Reilly CH, Huber LM, Woollings T, Zanna L (2016) The signature of low-frequency oceanic forcing in the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation. Geophys Res Lett 43. https://doi.org/10.1002/2016GL067925
- Palutikof JP (2003) Analysis of Mediterranean climate data: measured and modelled. In: Bolle HJ (ed) Mediterranean Climate: Variability and Trends. Springer, BerlinGoogle Scholar
- Palutikof JP, Conte M, Casimiro Mendes J, Goodess CM, Espirito Santo F (1996) Climate and climate change. In: Brandt CJ, Thornes JB (eds) Mediterranean desertification and land use. John Wiley and Sons, LondonGoogle Scholar
- Plumb RA (2003) Atmospheric and Oceanic circulations. Class notes, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT). Link: www.ccpo.odu.edu/~klinck/Reprints/PaperWebPages/plumbAtmDyn03.html. (accessed on 31 July 2017).
- Spiegel MR, Schiller J, Srinivasan RA (2007) Análisis de la varianza. Probabilidad y Estadística [Schaum's Outline of Theory and Problems of Probability and Statistics]. Schaum (2nd edition). México D.F.: McGraw-Hill. pp. 335–371. ISBN 978-970-10-4231-1.
- Taylor, AH (2011) The Dance of Air and Sea: How Oceans, Weather and Life Link Together. Oxford University Press, 288 pp.Google Scholar
- UB (2017) University of Barcelona. http://www.ub.edu/gc/2016/06/08/wemo/ (accessed on 31 July 2017).
- Venables WN, Ripley BD (2002) Modern Applied Statistics with S-PLUS. Fourth edition. Springer.Google Scholar
- Wells NC (2011) The Atmosphere and Ocean: A Physical Introduction. Wiley-Blackwell. ISBN: 978–0–470-69469-5.Google Scholar