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Recent changes in Serbian climate extreme indices from 1961 to 2010

Abstract

The evolution of daily extreme temperature and precipitation from 1961 to 2010 in Serbia was investigated. Trends of five temperature indices, three precipitation indices, and four combined indices were calculated at ten temperature and ten precipitation stations located within the study area, and their corresponding significances were tested using the Student’s t test. Obtained results suggest that the time periods of extremely hot weather last longer, while the periods of extremely cold weather are shortened. Trends of duration of extreme temperature conditions were most pronounced in summer season. Periods of mild weather conditions are extended. Amount and intensity of precipitation had statistically significant increase only during autumn and were most pronounced in the northern and western parts of the country. On an average, there was no significant decrease in the maximum number of consecutive dry days or increase in the wet days (except in autumn). The investigation of four combined temperature-precipitation regimes showed the domination of “dry” regimes over “wet,” increasing trend of “warm” regimes and decreasing trend of “cold” regimes. The correlation between the examined extreme indices and the large-scale circulation patterns showed that EA and NAO had significant influence on duration of winter warm periods, while their influence on duration of cold periods cannot be confirmed with certainty.

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Acknowledgments

The research presented in this paper was performed as a part of the project “The Geography of Serbia” (No. III 47007) and supported by the Ministry of Education and Science of the Republic of Serbia in the period 2011–2015.

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Correspondence to Slavica Malinovic-Milicevic.

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Malinovic-Milicevic, S., Radovanovic, M.M., Stanojevic, G. et al. Recent changes in Serbian climate extreme indices from 1961 to 2010. Theor Appl Climatol 124, 1089–1098 (2016). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-015-1491-1

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Keywords

  • North Atlantic Oscillation
  • Precipitation Index
  • Extreme Index
  • Balkan Peninsula
  • East Atlantic