Skip to main content

Advertisement

SpringerLink
Log in

Responses of vegetation distribution to climate change in China

  • Original Paper
  • Published:
Theoretical and Applied Climatology Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

Climate plays a crucial role in controlling vegetation distribution and climate change may therefore cause extended changes. A coupled biogeography and biogeochemistry model called BIOME4 was modified by redefining the bioclimatic limits of key plant function types on the basis of the regional vegetation–climate relationships in China. Compared to existing natural vegetation distribution, BIOME4 is proven more reliable in simulating the overall vegetation distribution in China. Possible changes in vegetation distribution were simulated under climate change scenarios by using the improved model. Simulation results suggest that regional climate change would result in dramatic changes in vegetation distribution. Climate change may increase the areas covered by tropical forests, warm-temperate forests, savannahs/dry woodlands and grasslands/dry shrublands, but decrease the areas occupied by temperate forests, boreal forests, deserts, dry tundra and tundra across China. Most vegetation in east China, specifically the boreal forests and the tropical forests, may shift their boundaries northwards. The tundra and dry tundra on the Tibetan Plateau may be progressively confined to higher elevation.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Fig. 1
Fig. 2
Fig. 3
Fig. 4
Fig. 5
Fig. 6

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  • Cox PM, Betts RA, Collis M, Harris PP, Huntingford C, Jones CD (2004) Amazonian forest dieback under climate-carbon cycle projections for the 21st century. Theor Appl Climatol 78:137–156

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • CVEC, CAS (The China Vegetation Editorial Committee, Chinese Academy of Sciences) (1980) Vegetation of China. Science, Beijing

    Google Scholar 

  • CVAEC, CAS (The China Vegetation Atlas Editorial Committee, Chinese Academy of Sciences) (2001) Atlas of China vegetation (1:1,000,000). Science, Beijing

    Google Scholar 

  • Davis MB, Botkin DB (1985) Sensitivity of cool-temperate forests and their fossil pollen record to rapid temperate change. J Quat Sci 23:327–340

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Harrison SP, Prentice IC (2003) Climate and CO2 controls on global vegetation distribution at the last maximum: analysis based on palaeovegetation data, biome modelling and palaeoclimate simulation. Glob Change Biol 9:983–1004

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hart JF (1954) Central tendency in areal distribution. Econ Geogr 30:48–59

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Haxeltine A, Prentice IC (1996) BIOME3: an equilibrium biosphere model based on ecophysiological constraints, resource availability and competition among plant functional types. Global Biogeochem Cycles 10:693–709

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hitz S, Smith J (2004) Estimating global impacts from climate change. Global Environ Change 14:201–218

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Huntley B (1990) European vegetation history: palaeovegetation maps from pollen data—13000 yr BP to present. J Quat Sci 5:103–122

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • IPCC (2007) Climate change 2007: the physical science basis. In: Solomon S, Qin D, Manning M, Chen Z, Marquis M, Averyt KB, Tignor M, Miller HL (eds) Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge

    Google Scholar 

  • Jiang DB, Zhang Y, Lang XM (2011) Vegetation feedback under future global warming. Theor Appl Climatol 106:211–227

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Jones R, Noguer M, Hassell D, Hudson D, Wilson S, Jenkins G, Mitchell J (2004) Generating high resolution climate change scenarios using PRECIS. Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter

    Google Scholar 

  • Kaplan JO (2001) Geophysical applications of vegetation modeling. Ph.D. dissertation, Lund University, Lund, Sweden

  • Kaplan JO, Bigelow NH, Prentice IC, Harrison SP, Bartlein PJ, Christensen TR, Cramer W, Matveyeva NV, McGuire AD, Murray DF, Razzhivin VY, Smith B, Walker DA, Anderson PM, Andreev AA, Brubaker LB, Edwards ME, Lozhkin AV (2003) Climate change and arctic ecosystems II: modeling, paleodata-model comparisons, and future projections. J Geophys Res 108:1–12

    Google Scholar 

  • Lindroth A, Grelle A, Morén AS (1998) Long-term measurements of boreal forest carbon balance reveal large temperature sensitivity. Global Change Biol 4:443–450

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Loarie SR, Duffy PB, Hamilton H, Asner GP, Field CB, Ackerly DD (2009) The velocity of climate change. Nature 462:1052–1055

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Miao C, Duan Q, Yang L, Borthwick AGL (2012) On the applicability of temperature and precipitation data from CMIP3 for China. PLoS One 7(9):e44659. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0044659

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Monserud RA, Leemans R (1992) Comparing global vegetation maps with the Kappa statistic. Ecol Model 62:275–293

    Google Scholar 

  • Nemani RR, Keeling CD, Hashimoto H, Jolly WM, Piper SC, Tucker CJ, Myneni RB, Running SW (2003) Climate-driven increase in global terrestrial net primary production from 1982 to 1999. Science 300:1560–1563

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ni J (2011) Impacts of climate change on Chinese ecosystems: key vulnerable regions and potential thresholds. Reg Environ Change 11(Suppl 1):S49–S64

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ni J, Herzschun U (2011) Simulating biome distribution on the Tibetan Plateau using a modified global vegetation model. Arct Antarct Alp Res 43(3):429–441

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ni J, Sykes MT, Prentice IC, Cramer W (2001) Modeling the vegetation of China using the process-based equilibrium terrestrial biosphere model BIOME3. Global Ecol Biogeogr 9:463–479

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Prentice IC (1986) Vegetation response to past climatic variation. Vegetatio 67:131–141

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Piao SL, Ciais P, Friedlingstein P, de Noblet-Duconudre N, Cadule P, Viovy N, Wang T (2009) Spatiotemporal patterns of terrestrial carbon cycle during the 20th century. Global Biogeochem Cy 23, GB4026. doi:10.1029/2008GB003339

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Prentice IC, Bartlein PJ, Webb T (1991) Vegetation and climate change in eastern North America since the last glacial maximum. Ecology 72:2038–2056

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Prentice IC, Cramer W, Harrison SP, Leemans R, Monserud RA, Solomon AM (1992) A global biome model based on plant physiology and dominance, soil properties and climate. J Biogeogr 19:117–134

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Shi YF, Li JJ, Li BY (1998) Uplift and environmental changes of the Tibetan Plateau in the late Cenozoic. Guangdong Science and Technology Press, Guangzhou (In Chinese)

    Google Scholar 

  • TCNARCC (Taskforce on China's National Assessment Report on Climate Change) (2011) China's national assessment report on climate change. Science, Beijing

    Google Scholar 

  • Wang H, Ni J, Prentice IC (2011) Sensitivity of potential natural vegetation in China to projected changes in temperature, precipitation and atmospheric CO2. Reg Environ Change 11:715–727

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Weng ES, Zhou GS (2006) Modeling distribution changes of vegetation in China under future climate change. Environ Model and Assess 11:45–48

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wilmking M, Juday GP, Barber VA, Zald HSJ (2004) Recent climate warming forces contrasting growth responses of white spruce at treeline in Alaska through temperature thresholds. Global Change Biol 10:1724–1736

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wilson K, Newton A, Echeverr C, Weston C, Burgman M (2005) A vulnerability analysis of the temperate forests of south central Chile. Biol Conserv 122:9–21

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wu SH, Yin YH, Zhao DS, Huang M, Shao XM, Dai EF (2010) Impact of future climate change on terrestrial ecosystems in China. Int J Climatol 30:866–873

    Google Scholar 

  • Wu ZF (2003) Assessment of eco-climatic suitability and climate change impacts of broad-leaved Korean pine forest in northeast China. Chinese J Appl Ecol 14:771–775 (in Chinese)

    Google Scholar 

  • Xiong W, Conway D, Lin ED, Holman I (2009) Potential impacts of climate change and climate variability on China's rice yield and production. Clim Res 40:23–35

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Xu YL (2004) High resolution climatic scenarios in China based on RCM from the Hadley Center. Clim Change Newslett 3:6–7 (in Chinese)

    Google Scholar 

  • Yue TX, Fan ZM, Chen CF, Sun XF, Li BL (2011) Surface modeling of global terrestrial ecosystems under three climate change scenario. Ecol Model 222:2342–2361

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Zhang SH, Peng GB, Huang M (2004) The feature extraction and data fusion of regional soil textures based on GIS techniques. Clim Environ Res 6:65–79 (in Chinese)

    Google Scholar 

  • Zhang XS, Yang DA (1993) A study on climate–vegetation interaction in China: the ecological model for global change. Coenoses 8:105–119

    Google Scholar 

  • Zhang XS, Vegetation Map of China Editorial Committee, Chinese Academy of Science (2007) Vegetation map of China and its geographic pattern: illustration of the vegetation map of the People's Republic China (1:10,000,000). Geographical Publishing House, Beijing (in Chinese)

    Google Scholar 

  • Zhao DS, Wu SH, Yin YH, Yin Z-Y (2011) Vegetation distribution on Tibetan Plateau under climate change scenario. Reg Environ Change 11:905–915

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Zhao DS, Wu SH, Yin YH (2013a) Responses of terrestrial ecosystems' net primary productivity to future regional climate change in China. PLoS One 8(4):e60849. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0060849

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Zhao DS, Wu SH, Yin YH (2013b) Dynamic responses of soil organic carbon to climate change in the Three-River Headwater region of the Tibetan Plateau. Clim Res 56:21–23

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Zhao MS, Neilson PR, Yan XD, Dong WJ (2002) Modeling the vegetation of China under changing climate. J Geogr Sci 57:28–38 (in Chinese)

    Google Scholar 

Download references

Acknowledgments

This study was supported by the Strategic Priority Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences (XDA05090308), National Basic Research Program of China (2011CB403206), and National Natural Science Foundation of China (40901058). We thank Prof. Yinlong Xu from Institute of Environment and Sustainable Development in Agriculture, Chinese Academy of Agriculture Sciences, for providing climate scenario data. We appreciate two anonymous reviewers for their insightful comments on an earlier version of this manuscript.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Institute of Geographical Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, No. 11 A, Datun Road, Anwai, Beijing, 100101, China

    Dongsheng Zhao & Shaohong Wu

Authors
  1. Dongsheng Zhao
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. Shaohong Wu
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Shaohong Wu.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Cite this article

Zhao, D., Wu, S. Responses of vegetation distribution to climate change in China. Theor Appl Climatol 117, 15–28 (2014). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-013-0971-4

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-013-0971-4

Keywords

Search

Navigation