This paper presents the results of numerical modelling of extreme precipitation on the southern coast of the Caspian sea using the WRF-ARW model with realistic and idealised conditions aimed at evaluating the orographic and lake effects. Verified against the observational data, this model reproduces the spatial distribution and the total amount of precipitation in selected episodes reasonably well, with a certain set of physical parametrizations. Sensitivity tests showed that the lake effect is evident only in the presence of orography. The total contribution of the warm Caspian sea and orography to the amount of precipitation is, on average, 50%.
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This work was supported by the Russian Foundation for Basic Research, Grant No. 17-55-560017. The authors would like to thank prof. A.V. Kislov and prof. E.K. Semenov for helpful discussions. In addition, the authors thank anonymous reviewers for their valuable comments on the initial version of this paper.
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Shestakova, A.A., Toropov, P.A. Orographic and lake effect on extreme precipitation on the Iranian coast of the Caspian sea: a case study. Meteorol Atmos Phys 133, 69–84 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00703-020-00735-4