Abstract
The middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River Basin (MLYR) are greatly affected by frequent drought/flooding events and abrupt alternations of these events in China. The purpose of this study is to analyze the spatial and temporal variability of dryness/wetness based on the data obtained from 75 meteorological stations in the MLYR for the period 1960–2015 and investigate the correlations between dryness/wetness and atmospheric circulation factors. The empirical orthogonal function method was applied in this study based on the monthly Standardized Precipitation Index at a 12-month time scale. The first leading pattern captured the same characteristics of dryness/wetness over the entire MLYR area and accounted for 40.87% of the total variance. Both the second and third leading patterns manifested as regional features of variability over the entire MLYR. The cross-wavelet transform method was applied to explore the potential relationship between the three leading patterns and the large-scale climate factors, and finally the relationships between drought/wetness events and climate factors were also analyzed. Our results indicated that the main patterns of dryness/wetness were primarily associated with the Niño 3.4, Indian Ocean Dipole, Southern Oscillation Index and Northern Oscillation Index, with the first pattern exhibiting noticeable periods and remarkable changes in phase with the indices.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Ashraf M, Routray JK (2015) Spatio-temporal characteristics of precipitation and drought in Balochistan Province, Pakistan. Nat Hazards 77:229–254
Bordi I, Fraedrich K, Gerstengarbe F-W, Werner PC, Sutera A (2004) Potential predictability of dry and wet periods: Sicily and Elbe-Basin (Germany). Theor Appl Climatol 77:125–138
Bordi I, Fraedrich K, Sutera A (2009) Observed drought and wetness trends in Europe: an update. Hydrol Earth Syst Sci 13:1519–1530
Burn DH, Cunderlik JM, Pietroniro A (2004) Hydrological trends and variability in the Liard River basin/Tendances hydrologiques et variabilité dans le basin de la rivière Liard. Hydrol Sci J 49:53–67
Chan JCL, Zhou W (2005) PDO, ENSO and the early summer monsoon rainfall over south China. Geophys Res Lett 32:810
Chandran A, Basha G, Ouarda TBMJ (2016) Influence of climate oscillations on temperature and precipitation over the United Arab Emirates. Int J Climatol 36:225–235
Donat MG, Peterson TC, Brunet M, King AD, Almazroui M, Kolli RK (2014) Changes in extreme temperature and precipitation in the Arab region: long-term trends and variability related to ENSO and NAO. Int J Climatol 34:581–592
Gao R, Li F, Wang X, Liu T, Du D, Bai Y (2017a) Spatiotemporal variations in precipitation across the Chinese Mongolian plateau over the past half century. Atmos Res 193:204–215
Gao T, Wang HJ, Zhou T (2017b) Changes of extreme precipitation and nonlinear influence of climate variables over monsoon region in China. Atmos Res 197:379–389
Grinsted A, Moore JC, Jevrejeva S (2004) Application of the cross wavelet transform and wavelet coherence to geophysical time series. Nonlinear Proc Geophys 11:561–566
Hannachi A, Jolliffe IT, Stephenson DB (2007) Empirical orthogonal functions and related techniques in atmospheric science: a review. Int J Climatol 27:1119–1152
Huang J, Sun S, Xue Y, Zhang J (2014) Spatial and temporal variability of precipitation indices during 1961–2010 in Hunan Province, central south China. Theor Appl Climatol 118:581–595
Ionita M, Scholz P, Chelcea S (2015) Spatio-temporal variability of dryness/wetness in the Danube River Basin. Hydrol Process 29:4483–4497
IPCC (2014) Impacts, adaptation and vulnerability: part B: regional aspects: working group II contribution to the IPCC fifth assessment report, vol 2. Regional aspects. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge
Irannezhad M, Torabi Haghighi A, Chen D, Kløve B (2015) Variability in dryness and wetness in central Finland and the role of teleconnection patterns. Theor Appl Climatol 122:471–486
Kenyon J, Hegerl GC (2010) Influence of modes of climate variability on global precipitation extremes. J Clim 23:6248–6262
Khan S, Gabriel HF, Rana T (2008) Standard precipitation index to track drought and assess impact of rainfall on watertables in irrigation areas. Irrig Drain Syst 22:159–177
Kim DH, Yoo C, Kim T-W (2011) Application of spatial EOF and multivariate time series model for evaluating agricultural drought vulnerability in Korea. Adv Water Resour 34:340–350
Kim J-W, An S-I, Jun S-Y, Park H-J, Yeh S-W (2017) ENSO and East Asian winter monsoon relationship modulation associated with the anomalous northwest Pacific anticyclone. Clim Dyn 49:1157–1179
Li Q, Yang S, Kousky VE, Higgins RW, Lau KM, Xie P (2005) Features of cross-Pacific climate shown in the variability of China and US precipitation. Int J Climatol 25:1675–1696
Lin Q, Wu Z, Singh VP, Sadeghi SHR, He H, Lu G (2017) Correlation between hydrological drought, climatic factors, reservoir operation, and vegetation cover in the Xijiang Basin, South China. J Hydrol 549:512–524
Linderholm HW, Ou T, Jeong J-H, Folland CK, Gong D, Liu H, Liu Y, Chen D (2011) Interannual teleconnections between the summer North Atlantic Oscillation and the East Asian summer monsoon. J Geophys Res Atmos 116:107
Liu Z, Menzel L, Dong C, Fang R (2016) Temporal dynamics and spatial patterns of drought and the relation to ENSO: a case study in Northwest China. Int J Climatol 36:2886–2898
Lloyd-Hughes B, Saunders MA (2002) A drought climatology for Europe. Int J Climatol 22:1571–1592
Mavromatis T, Stathis D (2011) Response of the water balance in Greece to temperature and precipitation trends. Theor Appl Climatol 104:13–24
McKee T, Doesken N, Kleist J (1993) The relationship of drought frequency and duration to time scales. In: Eighth conference on applied climatology
Nicholls N, Alexander L (2007) Has the climate become more variable or extreme? Progress 1992–2006. Prog Phys Geogr 31:77–87
Raziei T, Saghafian B, Paulo AA, Pereira LS, Bordi I (2008) Spatial patterns and temporal variability of drought in Western Iran. Water Resour Manag 23:439
Seiler RA, Hayes M, Bressan L (2002) Using the standardized precipitation index for flood risk monitoring. Int J Climatol 22:1365–1376
Sen S, Rouault M (2013) Spatial patterns of seasonal scale trends in extreme hourly precipitation in South Africa. Appl Geogr 39:151–157
Tabari H, Abghari H, Hosseinzadeh Talaee P (2012) Temporal trends and spatial characteristics of drought and rainfall in arid and semiarid regions of Iran. Hydrol Process 26:3351–3361
Tan X, Gan TY, Shao D (2016) Wavelet analysis of precipitation extremes over Canadian ecoregions and teleconnections to large-scale climate anomalies. J Atmos Sol-Terr Phys 121:14469–14486
Torrence C, Compo GP (1998) A practical guide to wavelet analysis. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 79:61–78
Tošić I, Unkašević M (2014) Analysis of wet and dry periods in Serbia. Int J Climatol 34:1357–1368
Vidal JP, Martin E, Franchistéguy L, Habets F, Soubeyroux JM, Blanchard M, Baillon M (2010) Multilevel and multiscale drought reanalysis over France with the Safran-Isba-Modcou hydrometeorological suite. Hydrol Earth Syst Sci 14:459–478
Wang XL, Chen H, Wu Y, Feng Y, Pu Q (2010) New techniques for the detection and adjustment of shifts in daily precipitation data series. J Appl Meteorol Climatol 49:2416–2436
Wang W, Shao Q, Peng S, Zhang Z, Xing W, An G, Yong B (2011) Spatial and temporal characteristics of changes in precipitation during 1957–2007 in the Haihe River basin, China. Stoch Environ Res Risk A 25:881–895
Wang Y, Xu Y, Lei C, Li G, Han L, Song S, Yang L, Deng X (2016) Spatio-temporal characteristics of precipitation and dryness/wetness in Yangtze River Delta, eastern China, during 1960–2012. Atmos Res 172–173:196–205
Wen C, Juan F, Renguang W (2013) Roles of ENSO and PDO in the link of the East Asian winter monsoon to the following summer monsoon. J Clim 26:622–635
Westra S, Alexander LV, Zwiers FW (2012) Global increasing trends in annual maximum daily precipitation. J Clim 26:3904–3918
Whan K, Zwiers F (2017) The impact of ENSO and the NAO on extreme winter precipitation in North America in observations and regional climate models. Clim Dyn 48:1401–1411
Wilcox RR (1998) A note on the Theil-Sen regression estimator when the regressor is random and the error term is heteroscedastic. Biom J 40:261–268
Xiao M, Zhang Q, Singh VP (2017) Spatiotemporal variations of extreme precipitation regimes during 1961–2010 and possible teleconnections with climate indices across China. Int J Climatol 37:468–479
Yan YY (2002) Temporal and spatial patterns of seasonal precipitation variability in China, 1951–1999. Phys Geogr 23:281–301
Yang P, Xia J, Zhang Y, Hong S (2017) Temporal and spatial variations of precipitation in Northwest China during 1960–2013. Atmos Res 183:283–295
Yin H, Li C (2001) Human impact on floods and flood disasters on the Yangtze River. Geomorphology 41:105–109
Yoo C, Kim S (2004) EOF analysis of surface soil moisture field variability. Adv Water Resour 27:831–842
Yu H-L, Lin Y-C (2015) Analysis of space–time non-stationary patterns of rainfall–groundwater interactions by integrating empirical orthogonal function and cross wavelet transform methods. J Hydrol 525:585–597
Yu Y, Wan W, Xiong B, Ren Z, Zhao B, Zhang Y, Ning B, Liu L (2015) Modeling Chinese ionospheric layer parameters based on EOF analysis. Space Weather 13:339–355
Yuan Y, Yang H, Zhou W, Li C (2008) Influences of the Indian Ocean dipole on the Asian summer monsoon in the following year. Int J Climatol 28:1849–1859
Yue S, Pilon P, Phinney B, Cavadias G (2002) The influence of autocorrelation on the ability to detect trend in hydrological series. Hydrol Process 16:1807–1829
Zhang Q, C-y Xu, Jiang T, Wu Y (2007) Possible influence of ENSO on annual maximum streamflow of the Yangtze River, China. J Hydrol 333:265–274
Zhang Z, Zhang Q, Chen X, Zhang J, Zhou J (2011) Statistical properties of moisture transport in East Asia and their impacts on wetness/dryness variations in North China. Theor Appl Climatol 104:337–347
Zhang Q, Xiao M, Singh VP, Chen YD (2014) Max-stable based evaluation of impacts of climate indices on extreme precipitation processes across the Poyang Lake basin, China. Glob Planet Change 122:271–281
Acknowledgements
This study was supported by the State Key Program of National Natural Science of China (No. 51339004) and National key research and development program (2017YFA0603704).
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Ethics declarations
Conflict of interest
The authors declare that there is no conflict of interests regarding the publication of this paper.
Additional information
Responsible Editor: S. Hong.
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Chen, X., Zhang, L., Zou, L. et al. Spatio-temporal variability of dryness/wetness in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River Basin and correlation with large-scale climatic factors. Meteorol Atmos Phys 131, 487–503 (2019). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00703-018-0582-9
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00703-018-0582-9