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WRF model for precipitation simulation and its application in real-time flood forecasting in the Jinshajiang River Basin, China

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Abstract

An accurate flood forecasting with long lead time can be of great value for flood prevention and utilization. This paper develops a one-way coupled hydro-meteorological modeling system consisting of the mesoscale numerical weather model Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model and the Chinese Xinanjiang hydrological model to extend flood forecasting lead time in the Jinshajiang River Basin, which is the largest hydropower base in China. Focusing on four typical precipitation events includes: first, the combinations and mode structures of parameterization schemes of WRF suitable for simulating precipitation in the Jinshajiang River Basin were investigated. Then, the Xinanjiang model was established after calibration and validation to make up the hydro-meteorological system. It was found that the selection of the cloud microphysics scheme and boundary layer scheme has a great impact on precipitation simulation, and only a proper combination of the two schemes could yield accurate simulation effects in the Jinshajiang River Basin and the hydro-meteorological system can provide instructive flood forecasts with long lead time. On the whole, the one-way coupled hydro-meteorological model could be used for precipitation simulation and flood prediction in the Jinshajiang River Basin because of its relatively high precision and long lead time.

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Acknowledgements

This work is supported by the Key Program of the Major Research Plan of the National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 91547208), the National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 51579107), and the National Key R&D Program of China (2016YFC0402205 and 2016YFC0402209).

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. School of Hydropower and Information Engineering, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan, 430074, China

    Jianzhong Zhou, Hairong Zhang, Xiaofan Zeng, Yi Liu & Muhammad Tayyab

  2. Hubei Key Laboratory of Digital Valley Science and Technology, Wuhan, 430074, China

    Jianzhong Zhou, Hairong Zhang, Xiaofan Zeng, Yi Liu & Muhammad Tayyab

  3. State Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering, Nanjing Hydraulic Research Institute, Nanjing, 210098, China

    Jianyun Zhang

  4. School of Hydraulic Engineering, Dalian University of Technology, Dalian, 116024, China

    Lei Ye

  5. China Yangtze Power Company Limited, Yichang, 443002, China

    Yufan Chen

Authors
  1. Jianzhong Zhou
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  2. Hairong Zhang
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  3. Jianyun Zhang
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  4. Xiaofan Zeng
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  5. Lei Ye
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  6. Yi Liu
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  7. Muhammad Tayyab
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  8. Yufan Chen
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Corresponding author

Correspondence to Hairong Zhang.

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Responsible Editor: M. Kaplan.

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Zhou, J., Zhang, H., Zhang, J. et al. WRF model for precipitation simulation and its application in real-time flood forecasting in the Jinshajiang River Basin, China. Meteorol Atmos Phys 130, 635–647 (2018). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00703-017-0542-9

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00703-017-0542-9

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