Advertisement

Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics

, Volume 130, Issue 2, pp 137–152 | Cite as

Impact of different climatic flows on typhoon tracks

  • Wei-hong Qian
  • Jing Huang
Original Paper

Abstract

A tropical cyclone (TC) vortex is considered to be embedded in and steered by a large-scale environmental flow. The environmental flow can be decomposed into two parts: temporal climatic flow and anomaly. The former is defined according to the calendar climatology with a diurnal cycle and a seasonal cycle. Thus, the temporal climatic flow of the atmosphere, which can be estimated using reanalysis data, varies with regions, altitudes, and hours. The impact of different climatic flows on TC tracks in the Northwest Pacific is examined using a simple generalized beta-advection model. Results show that the predicted tracks of two TC cases have large deviations from their best tracks in the following 1–2 days if the temporal climatic wind is replaced by other hourly climatic winds on the same calendar day or by a several-day-mean climatic wind. The track deviation is more significant when the climatic wind difference is larger than 2 m s−1. This experiment reconfirms that a TC track is influenced by temporal climatic flow and interaction with other disturbances in the vicinity.

Notes

Acknowledgements

The work is supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (41375073) and the Global Change and Air-Sea Interaction Program (GASI-03-02-01-02).

References

  1. Asai T, Ke S, Kodama Y (1998) Diurnal variability of cloudiness over East Asia and the western Pacific Ocean as revealed by GMS during the warm season. J Meteorol Soc Japan 76:675–684CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  2. Chan JCL, Gray WM (1982) Tropical cyclone movement and surrounding flow relationship. Mon Weather Rev 110:1354–1374CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  3. Chan JCL, Ko FMF, Lei YM (2002) Relationship between potential vorticity tendency and tropical cyclone motion. J Atmos Sci 59:1317–1336CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  4. Chen LS, Ding YH (1979) An introduction to the Western Pacific Typhoons. Science Press, Beijing (in Chinese) Google Scholar
  5. Chen G, Sha W, Iwasaki T (2009) Diurnal variation of precipitation over southeastern China: spatial distribution and its seasonality. J Geophys Res. doi: 10.1029/2008JD011103 Google Scholar
  6. Chen G, Sha W, Sawada M, Iwasaki T (2013) Influence of summer monsoon diurnal cycle on moisture transport and precipitation over eastern China. J Geophys Res Atmos. doi: 10.1002/jgrd.50337 Google Scholar
  7. Chu JH, Sampson CR, Levine AS, Fukada E (2002) The Joint Typhoon Warning Center tropical cyclone best tracks 1945–2000. Joint Typhoon Warning Cent, HawaiiGoogle Scholar
  8. Dai A, Deser C (1999) Diurnal and semidiurnal variations in global surface wind and divergence fields. J Geophys Res 104:31109–31125CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  9. Davis C, Snyder C, Didlake AC (2008) A vortex-based perspective of eastern Pacific tropical cyclone formation. Mon Weather Rev 136:2461–2477CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  10. Dee DP et al (2011) The ERA-Interim reanalysis: configuration and performance of the data assimilation system. Q J R Meteorol Soc 137:553–597CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  11. den Dool Van (2007) Empirical methods in short-term climate prediction. Oxford University Press, OxfordGoogle Scholar
  12. Deng G, Zhou YS, Liu LP (2010) Use of a new steering flow method to predict tropical cyclone motion. J Trop Meteorol 16:154–159Google Scholar
  13. Dong K, Neumann CJ (1986) The relationship between tropical cyclone motion and environmental geostrophic flows. Mon Weather Rev 114:115–122CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  14. Franklin JL (1990) Dropwindsonde observations of the environmental flow of hurricane Josephine (1984), relationships to vortex motion. Mon Weather Rev 118:2732–2744CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  15. Galarneau TJ, Davis CA (2013) Diagnosing forecast errors in tropical cyclone motion. Mon Weather Rev 141:405–430CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  16. George JE, Gray WM (1976) Tropical cyclone motion and surrounding parameter relationships. J Appl Meteorol 15:1252–1264CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  17. Hirose M, Nakamura K (2005) Spatial and diurnal variation of precipitation systems over Asia observed by the TRMM Precipitation Radar. J Geophys Res. doi: 10.1029/2004JD004815 Google Scholar
  18. Holland GJ (1984) Tropical cyclone motion: a comparison of theory and observation. J Atmos Sci 41:68–75CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  19. Huang W, Chan J, Wang S (2010) A planetary-scale land-sea breeze circulation in East Asia and the western North Pacific. Q J R Meteorol Soc. doi: 10.1002/qj.663 Google Scholar
  20. Huang J, Du J, Qian WH (2015) A comparison between Generalized Beta-Advection Model and classical Beta-Advection Model in predicting and understanding unusual typhoon tracks in eastern China seas. Weather Forecast 30:771–792CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  21. Mao JY, Wu GX (2011) Barotropic process contributing to the formation and growth of tropical cyclone Nargis. Adv Atmos Sci 28:483–491CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  22. Marks DG (1992) The beta and advection model for hurricane track forecasting. NOAA Tech. Memo. NWS NMC 70. National Meteorological Center, Camp SpringsGoogle Scholar
  23. Monaghan AJ, Rife DL, Pinto JO, Davis CA, Hannan JR (2010) Global precipitation extremes associated with diurnally varying low-level jets. J Clim. doi: 10.1175/2010JCLI3515.1 Google Scholar
  24. Ohsawa T, Ueda H, Hayashi T, Watanabe A, Matsumoto J (2001) Diurnal variations of convective activity and rainfall in tropical Asia. J Meteorol Soc Japan 79:333–352CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  25. Parker DJ, Burton RR, Diongue-Niang A, Ellis RJ, Felton M, Taylor CM, Thorncroft CD, Bessemoulin P, Tompkins AM (2005) The diurnal cycle of the west African monsoon circulation. Q J R Meteorol Soc. doi: 10.1256/qj.04.52 Google Scholar
  26. Qian WH, Li J, Shan XL (2013) Application of synoptic-scale anomalous winds predicted by medium-range weather forecast models on the regional heavy rainfall in China in 2010. Sci China Earth Sci 56:1059–1070CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  27. Qian WH, Shan XL, Liang HY, Huang J, Leung CH (2014) A generalized beta advection model to improve unusual typhoon track prediction by decomposing total flow into climatic and anomalous flows. J Geophys Res Atmos 119:1097–1117CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  28. Qian WH, Zhang GW, Huang J (2015) Intensity evolution of typhoon Megi (2010) revealed from anomaly-based atmospheric variables. Meteorol Mon 41(7):806–815Google Scholar
  29. Qian WH, Huang J, Zhang GW (2016a) Reexamining the binary interaction of four pairs of tropical cyclones in the Northwest Pacific. J Meteorol Soc Japan. doi: 10.2151/jmsj.2016-016 Google Scholar
  30. Qian WH, Wu KJ, Leung CH (2016b) Three-dimensional structure and long-term trend of heat wave events in western Eurasia revealed with an anomaly-based approach. Int J Clim. doi: 10.1002/joc.4634 Google Scholar
  31. Qian WH, Huang J, Du J (2016c) Examination of hurricane Sandy’s (2012) structure and intensity evolution from full-field and anomaly-field analyses. Tellus-A 68Google Scholar
  32. Ramage CS (1952) Diurnal variation of summer rainfall over east China, Korea and Japan. J Meteorol 9:83–86CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  33. Rife DL, Pinto JO, Monaghan AJ, Davis CA, Hannan JR (2010) Global distribution and characteristics of diurnally varying low-level jets. J Clim. doi: 10.1175/2010JCLI3514.1 Google Scholar
  34. Roy C, Kovordanyi R (2012) Tropical cyclone track forecasting techniques—a review. Atmos Res 104–105:40–69CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  35. Sanders F, Adams AL, Gordon NJB, Jensen WD (1980) Further development of a barotropic operational model for predicting paths of tropical storms. Mon Weather Rev 108:642–654CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  36. Simpson RH (2003) Hurricane: Coping with Disaster: Progress and Challenges since Galveston, 1900. American Geophysical Union, WashingtonCrossRefGoogle Scholar
  37. Velden CS, Leslie LM (1991) The basic relationship between tropical cyclone intensity and the depth of the environmental steering layer in the Australian region. Weather Forecast 6:244–253CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  38. Wang B, Elsberry RL, Wang YQ, Wu LG (1998) Dynamics in tropical cyclone motion: a review. Chin J Atmos Sci 22:535–547Google Scholar
  39. Wu DH, Shen TL, Wu QS, Huang YY, Lian DY (2008) Analyzing the structure of typhoon “Longwang” before and after landing in Fujian coast. J Oceanogr Taiwan Strait 27:243–249Google Scholar
  40. Yang S, Smith EA (2006) Mechanisms for diurnal variability of global tropical rainfall observed from TRMM. J Clim. doi: 10.1175/JCLI3883.1 Google Scholar
  41. Yu R, Zhou T, Xiong A, Zhu Y, Li J (2007) Diurnal variations of summer precipitation over contiguous China. Geophys Res Lett. doi: 10.1029/2006GL028129 Google Scholar
  42. Yu R, Li J, Chen H (2009) Diurnal variation of surface wind over central eastern China. Clim Dyn 1:1. doi: 10.1007/s00382-008-0478-3 Google Scholar
  43. Yuan W, Yu R, Zhang M, Lin W, Chen H, Li J (2012) Regimes of diurnal variation of summer rainfall over subtropical East Asia. J Clim. doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00288.1 Google Scholar
  44. Zebiak ES, Cane MA (1987) A model El Niño-Southern Oscillation. Mon Weather Rev 115:2262–2278CrossRefGoogle Scholar

Copyright information

© Springer-Verlag Wien 2017

Authors and Affiliations

  1. 1.Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic SciencesPeking UniversityBeijingChina

Personalised recommendations