Road construction projects on the territory of the Republic of Croatia are characterized by the overrun of planned costs. The experience of the contractor on previous road projects is an important element that can help to prevent errors and increase the chances of success in similar future projects. Data on construction costs collected from past projects can be used to estimate costs at different stages of the project life cycle through artificial neural networks. In this paper, artificial neural networks (MLP, GRNN, RBFNN) for estimating road construction costs are modeled. During the modeling, the database of roads constructed on the territory of the Republic of Croatia was used. Comparison of performance of neural networks has shown that the GRNN has obtained the best accuracy with MAPE of 13% and coefficient of determination of 0.9595. The neural network has proven to be a promising approach to use in the initial design phase when there is usually a limited or incomplete set of data for cost analysis, and this method could yield much more accurate results and the estimation error could be reduced.
This is a preview of subscription content, access via your institution.
Buy single article
Instant access to the full article PDF.
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.
Subscribe to journal
Immediate online access to all issues from 2019. Subscription will auto renew annually.
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.
Ambrule VR, Bhirud AN (2017) Use of artificial neural network for pre design cost estimation of building projects. Int J Recent Innov Trends Comput Commun 5(2):173–176
Turochy RE, Hoel LA, Doty RS (2001) Highway project cost estimating methods used in the planning stage of project development. Technical Assistance Report. Virginia Transportation Research Council, Charlottesville
Peško I, Trivunić M, Cirović G, Mučenski V (2013) A preliminary estimate of time and cost in urban road construction using neural networks. Tehnički Vjesnik 20(3):563–570
Al-Zwainy FMS, Aidan IAA (2017) Forecasting the cost of structure of infrastructure projects utilizing artificial neural network model (highway projects as case study). Indian J Sci Technol 10(20):1–12
Petruseva S, Car-Pušić D, Zileska Pancovska V (2016) Predicting construction time by using general regression neural network. Int Sci Conf People Build Environ 4:1805–6784
Lazarevska M, Knezevic M, Cvetkovska M, Trombeva-Gavriloska A (2014) Applications of artificial neural networks in civil engineering. Tehnički Vjesnik 21(6):1353–1359
Naik MG, Radhika VSB (2015) Time and cost analysis for highway road construction project using artificial neural networks. J Constr Eng Proj Manag 4(3):26–31
Pewdum W, Rujirayanyong T, Sooksatra V (2009) Forecasting final budget and duration of highway construction projects. Eng Const Archit Manag 16:544–557
Adeli H (2001) Neural networks in civil engineering: 1989-2000. Comput Aid Civ Infrastruct Eng 16(6):126–142
Aleksander I, Morton H (1990) An introduction to neural computing (2nd ed.). International Thomson Computer Press
Sušanj I (2016) Development of the hydrological rainfall-runoff model based on artificial neural network in small catchments. Dissertation, University of Rijeka
Ahiaga-Dagbui DD, Smith SD (2012) Neural networks for modelling the final target cost of water projects In: Smith SD (Ed) Proceedings 28th Annual ARCOM Conference, 3–5 September 2012, Edinburgh, UK, Association of Researchers in Construction Management, pp 307–316
Elbeltagi E, Hosny O, Abdul-Razek R, El-Fitory A (2014) Conceptual cost estimate of Libyan highway projects using artificial neural network. Int J Eng Res Appl 4(8):56–66
Ilić V (1999) Neural Networks. Available at: http://solair.eunet.rs/~ilicv/neuro.html. Accessed 01 Feb 2019
Flood I (2006) Next generation artificial neural networks for civil engineering. J Comput Civ Eng 20(5):305–307
Adeli H, Yeh C (1989) Perceptron learning in engineering design. Comput Aid Civ Infrastruct Eng 4(4):247–256
Kim G, An S, Kang K (2004) Comparison of construction cost estimating models based on regression analysis, neural networks, and case-based reasoning. Int J Project Manage 22:595–602
Hegazy T, Ayed A (1998) Neural network model for parametric cost estimation of highway projects. J Constr Eng Manag 124(3):210–218
Wilmot CG, Mei B (2005) Neural network modeling of highway construction costs. J Constr Eng Manag 131(7):765–771
Wang XZ, Duan XC, Liu JY (2010) Application of neural network in the cost estimation of highway engineering. J Comput 5(11):1762–1766
Attal A (2010) Development of neural network models for prediction of highway construction cost and project duration. Dissertation, Russ College of Engineering and Technology of Ohio University
Shebab T (2012) Cost estimating model for sustainable rehabilitation of road projects. Final report, METRANS project
Hunter K (2014) Estimating preconstruction services costs for highway projects. Dissertation, Iowa State University
Adel K, Elyamany A, Belal AM, Kotb AS (2016) Developing parametric model for conceptual cost estimate of highway projects. Int J Eng Sci Comput 6(7):1729–1734
Peško I, Mučenski V, Šešlija M, Radović N, Vujkov A, Bibić D, Krklješ M (2017) Estimation of costs and durations of construction of urban roads using ANN and SVM. Complexity 2017
Barros LB, Marcy MI, Carvalho MTM (2018) Construction cost estimation of Brazilian highways using artificial neural networks. Int J Struct Civ Eng Res 7(3):283–289
O’Connor JT, Chou JS (2007) Internet-based preliminary highway construction cost estimating database. Autom Constr 17(1):65–74
Kim DY, Kim B, Han SH (2008) Two-staged early cost estimation for highway construction projects. In: The 25th international symposium on automation and robotics in construction, institute of internet and intelligent technologies, pp 490–495
Chou JS (2009) Generalized linear model-based expert system for estimating the cost of transportation projects. Expert Syst Appl 36(3):4253–4267
Sodikov J (2009) Road cost models for prefeasibility studies in developing countries. J Infrastruct Syst 15(4):278–289
Huntington G, Ksaibati K (2009) Annualized road works cost estimates for unpaved roads. J Transp Eng 135(10):702–710
Choi S, Kim DY, Han SH, Kwak YH (2014) Conceptual cost-prediction model for public road planning via rough set theory and case-based reasoning. J Constr Eng Manag 140(1):04013026
Ćirilović J, Vajdić N, Mladenović G, Queiroz C (2014) Developing cost estimation models for road rehabilitation and reconstruction: case study of projects in Europe and central Asia. J Constr Eng Manag 140(3):04013065
Lu Y, Lou X, Zhang H (2011) A gene expression programming algorithm for highway construction cost predicition problems. J Transp Syst Eng Inf Technol 11(6):85–92
Mahamid I, Bruland A (2010) Preliminary cost estimating models for road construction activities. FIG Congress 2010:11–16
Mahamid I (2013) Conceptual cost estimate of road construction projects in Saudi Arabia. Jordan J Civ Eng 7(3):285–294
Sherrod P (2013) DTREG predictive modelling software. http://www.dtreg.com. Accessed 01 July 2019
Car-Pušić D (2004) Planning methodology for sustainable construction time. Dissertation, University of Zagreb
Korajac J (2017) Sources of cost and time overruns in road construction projects. Josip Juraj Strossmayer University of Osijek, Thesis
Lončarić S (2018) Natural networks: multilayerd perceptron. http://www.aes.hr/_download/repository/06-ViseslojniPerceptron-1s.pdf. Accessed 01 Feb 2019
Educational repository for intelligent systems. http://eris.foi.hr/11neuronske/nn-predavanje5.html. Accessed 01 Feb 2019
Ghaderzadeh M, Fein R, Standring A (2013) Comparing performance of different neural networks for early detection of cancer from benign hyperplasia of prostate. Appl Med Inform 33(3):45–54
Al-Mahasneh AJ, Anavatti SG, Garratt MA (2018) Review of applications of generalized regression neural networks in identification and control of dynamic systems. Neural Evolut Comput. http://arxiv.org/abs/arXiv:1805.11236
Petruseva S, Zileska-Pancovska V, Car-Pušić D (2019) Implementation of process-based and data-driven models for early prediction of construction time. Adv Civ Eng 2019:1–12
Hackerearth blog (2017) Radial basis function network. https://www.hackerearth.com/blog/uncategorized/radial-basis-function-network/. Accessed 01 Feb 2019
Bullinaria J (2004) Radial basis function networks: introduction. http://www.cs.bham.ac.uk/~jxb/NN/l12.pdf. Accessed 01 Feb 2019
This work has been partly supported by the University of Rijeka under the Project Number 13.05.1.3.10.
Conflict of interest
The authors declare that they have no conflict of interest.
Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.
About this article
Cite this article
Tijanić, K., Car-Pušić, D. & Šperac, M. Cost estimation in road construction using artificial neural network. Neural Comput & Applic 32, 9343–9355 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00521-019-04443-y
- Road projects
- Artificial neural network