Heat-related mortality at the beginning of the twenty-first century in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

Geirinhas, João L.; Russo, Ana; Libonati, Renata; Trigo, Ricardo M.; Castro, Lucas C. O.; Peres, Leonardo F.; Magalhães, Mônica de Avelar F. M.; Nunes, Baltazar

doi:10.1007/s00484-020-01908-x

Original Paper
Published: 20 April 2020

Heat-related mortality at the beginning of the twenty-first century in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

João L. Geirinhas¹,
Ana Russo¹,
Renata Libonati^2,1,3,
Ricardo M. Trigo^1,2,
Lucas C. O. Castro²,
Leonardo F. Peres^2,4,
Mônica de Avelar F. M. Magalhães⁵ &
Baltazar Nunes^6,7

International Journal of Biometeorology volume 64, pages 1319–1332 (2020)Cite this article

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Abstract

Temperature record-breaking events, such as the observed more intense, longer-lasting, and more frequent heat waves, pose a new global challenge to health sectors worldwide. These threats are of particular interest in low-income regions with limited investments in public health and a growing urban population, such as Brazil. Here, we apply a comprehensive interdisciplinary climate-health approach, including meteorological data and a daily mortality record from the Brazilian Health System from 2000 to 2015, covering 21 cities over the Metropolitan Region of Rio de Janeiro. The percentage of absolute mortality increase due to summer extreme temperatures is estimated using a negative binomial regression modeling approach and maximum/minimum temperature-derived indexes as covariates. Moreover, this study assesses the vulnerability to thermal stress for different age groups and both genders and thoroughly analyzes four extremely intense heat waves during 2010 and 2012 regarding their impacts on the population. Results showed that the highest absolute mortality values during heat-related events were linked to circulatory illnesses. However, the highest excess of mortality was related to diabetes, particularly for women within the elderly age groups. Moreover, results indicate that accumulated heat stress conditions during consecutive days preferentially preceded by persistent periods of moderate-temperature, lead to higher excess mortality rather than sporadic single hot days. This work may provide directions in human health policies related to extreme climate events in large tropical metropolitan areas from developing countries, contributing to altering the historically based purely reactive response.

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Acknowledgments

This work was partially funded by project INDECIS, which is part of ERA4CS, an ERA-NET initiated by JPI Climate, with co-funding by the European Union (grant 690462). Renata Libonati was supported by the Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPQ, grant 305159/2018-6) and Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado do Rio de Janeiro (FAPERJ, grant E26/202.714/2019). Lucas C.O. Castro was supported by the Programa Institucional de Bolsas de Iniciação Científica – Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro (PIBIC-UFRJ).

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Authors and Affiliations

Instituto Dom Luiz (IDL), Faculdade de Ciências, Universidade de Lisboa, 1749-016, Lisbon, Portugal
João L. Geirinhas, Ana Russo, Renata Libonati & Ricardo M. Trigo
Departamento de Meteorologia, Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro, Rio de Janeiro, 21941-916, Brazil
Renata Libonati, Ricardo M. Trigo, Lucas C. O. Castro & Leonardo F. Peres
Centro de Estudos Florestais, Universidade de Lisboa, 1349-017, Lisbon, Portugal
Renata Libonati
Instituto Português do Mar e da Atmosfera (IPMA), 1749-077, Lisbon, Portugal
Leonardo F. Peres
Instituto de Comunicação e Informação Científica e Tecnológica em Saúde (ICICT), Fundação Oswaldo Cruz (FIOCRUZ), Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
Mônica de Avelar F. M. Magalhães
Centro de Investigação em Saúde Pública, Escola Nacional de Saúde Pública, Universidade NOVA de Lisboa, Lisbon, Portugal
Baltazar Nunes
Departamento de Epidemiologia, Instituto Nacional de Saúde Dr. Ricardo Jorge, Lisbon, Portugal
Baltazar Nunes

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João L. Geirinhas
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Ana Russo
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Renata Libonati
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Ricardo M. Trigo
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Lucas C. O. Castro
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Leonardo F. Peres
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Mônica de Avelar F. M. Magalhães
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Baltazar Nunes
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Geirinhas, J.L., Russo, A., Libonati, R. et al. Heat-related mortality at the beginning of the twenty-first century in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. Int J Biometeorol 64, 1319–1332 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00484-020-01908-x

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Received: 08 November 2019
Revised: 16 March 2020
Accepted: 26 March 2020
Published: 20 April 2020
Issue Date: August 2020
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00484-020-01908-x

Keywords

Extreme events
Rio de Janeiro
Extreme heat factor
Heat waves
Mortality levels