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Sensitivity and requirement of improvements of four soybean crop simulation models for climate change studies in Southern Brazil

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Abstract

Crop growth models have many uncertainties that affect the yield response to climate change. Based on that, the aim of this study was to evaluate the sensitivity of crop models to systematic changes in climate for simulating soybean attainable yield in Southern Brazil. Four crop models were used to simulate yields: AQUACROP, MONICA, DSSAT, and APSIM, as well as their ensemble. The simulations were performed considering changes of air temperature (0, + 1.5, + 3.0, + 4.5, and + 6.0 °C), [CO2] (380, 480, 580, 680, and 780 ppm), rainfall (− 30, − 15, 0, + 15, and + 30%), and solar radiation (− 15, 0, + 15), applied to daily values. The baseline climate was from 1961 to 2014, totalizing 53 crop seasons. The crop models simulated a reduction of attainable yield with temperature increase, reaching 2000 kg ha−1 for the ensemble at + 6 °C, mainly due to shorter crop cycle. For rainfall, the yield had a higher rate of reduction when it was diminished than when rainfall was increased. The crop models increased yield variability when solar radiation was changed from − 15 to + 15%, whereas [CO2] rise resulted in yield gains, following an asymptotic response, with a mean increase of 31% from 380 to 680 ppm. The models used require further attention to improvements in optimal and maximum cardinal temperature for development rate; runoff, water infiltration, deep drainage, and dynamic of root growth; photosynthesis parameters related to soil water availability; and energy balance of soil-plant system to define leaf temperature under elevated CO2.

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Acknowledgements

The first author would like to thank the São Paulo Research Foundation (FAPESP) for the support to this study through the Ph.D. scholarship (Process N° 2013/05306-0) and the Ph.D. Exchange scholarship (Process N° 2014/09424-0) at the University of Florida. The second author would like to thank the Brazilian Research Council (CNPq) for the support to this study through a research fellowship.

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  1. College of Agronomy, Federal University of Goiás, Goiânia, GO, Brazil

    R. Battisti

  2. Department of Biosystems Engineering, ESALQ, University of São Paulo, Piracicaba, SP, Brazil

    P. C. Sentelhas

  3. Agronomy Department, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, USA

    K. J. Boote

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Battisti, R., Sentelhas, P.C. & Boote, K.J. Sensitivity and requirement of improvements of four soybean crop simulation models for climate change studies in Southern Brazil. Int J Biometeorol 62, 823–832 (2018). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00484-017-1483-1

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