Skip to main content
SpringerLink
Log in

Spatial-temporal variations in the thermal growing degree-days and season under climate warming in China during 1960–2011

International Journal of Biometeorology Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Cite this article

Abstract

Vegetation growth and phenology are largely regulated by base temperature (Tb) and thermal accumulation. Hence, the growing degree-days (GDD) and growing season (GS) calculated based on Tb have primary effects on terrestrial ecosystems, and could be changed by the significant warming during the last century. By choosing 0, 5, and 10 °C, three key Tb for vegetation growth, the GDD and GS in China during 1960–2011 were developed based on 536 meteorological stations with homogenized daily mean temperatures. Results show that both the GDD and GS showed positive sensitivity to the annual mean temperature. The start of the growing season (SOS) has advanced by 4.86–6.71 days, and the end of the growing season (EOS) has been delayed by 4.32–6.19 days, lengthening the GS by 10.76–11.02 days in China as a whole during 1960–2011, depending on the Tb chosen. Consistently, the GDD has totally increased 218.92–339.40 °C days during the 52 years, with trends more pronounced in those based on a lower Tb. The GDD increase was significant (Mann–Kendall test, p < 0.01) over China except for the north of Southwest China, while the significant GS extension only scattered over China. Whereas the extensions of GS0 and GS5 were dominated by the advance in SOS, the GS10 extension was closely linked to the delay in EOS. Regionally, the GS extension in the eastern monsoon zone and northwest arid/semi-arid zone was driven by the advance in SOS and delay in EOS, respectively. Moreover, each variation has a substantial acceleration mostly in 1987 or 1996, and a speed reduction or even a trend reversal in the early 2000s. Changes in the thermal growing degree-days and season are expected to have great implications for biological phenology, agricultural production, and terrestrial carbon cycle in the future.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Fig. 1
Fig. 2
Fig. 3
Fig. 4
Fig. 5

References

  • Anandhi A (2016) Growing degree days—ecosystem indicator for changing diurnal temperatures and their impact on corn growth stages in Kansas. Ecol Indic 61:149–158. doi:10.1016/j.ecolind.2015.08.023

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Arora VK, Boer GJ (2005) A parameterization of leaf phenology for the terrestrial ecosystem component of climate models. Glob Chang Biol 11(1):39–59. doi:10.1111/j.1365-2486.2004.00890.x

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Barichivich J, Briffa KR, Osborn TJ, Melvin TM, Caesar J (2012) Thermal growing season and timing of biospheric carbon uptake across the northern hemisphere. Global Biogeochem Cy 26. doi:10.1029/2012gb004312

  • Blinova I, Chmielewski F-M (2015) Climatic warming above the Arctic Circle: are there trends in timing and length of the thermal growing season in Murmansk Region (Russia) between 1951 and 2012? Int J Biometeorol 59(6):693–705. doi:10.1007/s00484-014-0880-y

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bootsma A (1994) Long term (100 yr) climatic trends for agriculture at selected locations in Canada. Clim Chang 26(1):65–88

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Cao LJ, Zhao P, Yan ZW, Jones P, Zhu YN, Yu Y, Tang GL (2013) Instrumental temperature series in eastern and central China back to the nineteenth century. J Geophys Res Atmos 118(15):8197–8207. doi:10.1002/jgrd.50615

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Carter TR (1998) Changes in the thermal growing season in Nordic countries during the past century and prospects for the future. Agr Food Sci Finland 7(2):161–179

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Cayton HL, Haddad NM, Gross K, Diamond SE, Ries L (2015) Do growing degree days predict phenology across butterfly species? Ecology 96(6):1473–1479. doi:10.1890/15-0131.1

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Chuai X, Huang X, Lai L, Wang W, Peng J, Zhao R (2013) Land use structure optimization based on carbon storage in several regional terrestrial ecosystems across China. Environ Sci Pol 25(25):50–61. doi:10.1016/j.envsci.2012.05.005

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Clark JS, Melillo J, Mohan J, Salk C (2014) The seasonal timing of warming that controls onset of the growing season. Glob Chang Biol 20(4):1136–1145. doi:10.1111/gcb.12420

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Cohen J, Barlow M, Saito K (2009) Decadal fluctuations in planetary wave forcing modulate global warming in late boreal winter. J Clim 22(16):4418–4426. doi:10.1175/2009JCLI2931.1

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Dai JH, Wang HJ, Ge QS (2014) The spatial pattern of leaf phenology and its response to climate change in China. Int J Biometeorol 58(4):521–528. doi:10.1007/s00484-013-0679-2

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Deng ZY, Zhang Q, Pu JY, Liu DX, Guo H, Wang QF, Zhao H, Wang HL (2008) The impact of climate warming on crop planting and production in northwestern China. Acta Ecol Sin 28(8):3760–3768. doi:10.1016/S1872-2032(08)60076-1

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Førland EJ, Skaugen TE, Benestad RE, Hanssen Bauer I, Tveito OE (2004) Variations in thermal growing, heating, and freezing indices in the Nordic Arctic, 1900–2050. Arct Antarct Alp Res 36(3):347–356. doi:10.1657/1523-0430(2004)036

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Fan BH, Guo L, Li N, Chen J, Lin H, Zhang XY, Shen MG, Rao YH, Wang C, Ma L (2014) Earlier vegetation green-up has reduced spring dust storms. Sci Rep-UK 4:6749–6749. doi:10.1038/srep06749

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Fang JY, Chen AP, Peng CH, Zhao SQ, Ci LJ (2001) Changes in forest biomass carbon storage in China between 1949 and 1998. Science 292(5525):2320–2322. doi:10.1126/science.1058629

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Frich P, Alexander LV, Dellamarta P, Gleason B, Haylock M, Tank MGK, Peterson T (2002) Observed coherent changes in climatic extremes during the second half of the twentieth century. Clim Res 19(3):193–212. doi:10.3354/cr019193

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Gao G, Chen DL, Xu CY, Simelton E (2007) Trend of estimated actual evapotranspiration over China during 1960–2002. J Geophys Res Atmos 112(D11):71–81. doi:10.1029/2006JD008010

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ge QS, Wang HJ, Rutishauser T, Dai JH (2015) Phenological response to climate change in China: a meta-analysis. Glob Chang Biol 21(1):265–274. doi:10.1111/gcb.12648

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Grigorieva EA, Matzarakis A, Freitas CRD (2010) Analysis of growing degree-days as climate impact indicator in a region with extreme annual air temperature amplitude. Clim Res 42(2):143–154. doi:10.3354/cr00888

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Gunderson CA, Edwards NT, Walker AV, O'Hara KH, Campion CM, Hanson PJ (2012) Forest phenology and a warmer climate—growing season extension in relation to climatic provenance. Glob Chang Biol 18(6):2008–2025. doi:10.1111/j.1365-2486.2011.02632.x

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hu KM, Huang G, Wu RG (2013) A strengthened influence of ENSO on august high temperature extremes over the southern Yangtze River valley since the late 1980s. J Clim 26(7):2205–2221. doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00277.1

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • IPCC (2013) Summary for Policymakers. Working Group I Contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report Climate Change 2013. In: The physical science basis. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK

    Google Scholar 

  • Irannezhad M, Kløve B (2015) Do atmospheric teleconnection patterns explain variations and trends in thermal growing season parameters in Finland? Int J Climatol 35(15). doi:10.1002/joc.4311

  • Irmak S, Payero JO, Martin DL, Irmak A, Howell TA (2006) Sensitivity analyses and sensitivity coefficients of standardized daily ASCE-penman-Monteith equation. J Irrig Drain Eng 132(6):564–578. doi:10.1061/(ASCE)0733-9437(2006)132:6(564)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Jeong SJ, Ho CH, Gim HJ, Brown ME (2011) Phenology shifts at start vs. end of growing season in temperate vegetation over the Northern Hemisphere for the period 1982-2008. Glob Chang Biol 17(7):2385–2399. doi:10.1111/j.1365-2486.2011.02397.x

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Jiang FQ, Hu RJ, Zhang YW, Li XM, Tong L (2011) Variations and trends of onset, cessation and length of climatic growing season over Xinjiang, NW China. Theor Appl Climatol 106(3–4):449–458. doi:10.1007/s00704-011-0445-5

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kocmánková E, Trnka M, Eitzinger J, Formayer H, Dubrovský M, Semerádová D, ŽAlud Z, Juroch J (2010) Estimating the impact of climate change on the occurrence of selected pests in the Central European region. Clim Res 42(3):464–465. doi:10.3354/cr00905

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Li Z, Yan ZW (2009) Homogenized daily mean/maximum/minimum temperature series for China from 1960−2008. Atmos Ocean Sci Lett 2(4):237–243. doi:10.1080/16742834.2009.11446802

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Linderholm HW (2006) Growing season changes in the last century. Agric For Meteorol 137(1):1–14. doi:10.1016/j.agrformet.2006.03.006

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Linderholm HW, Walther A, Chen D (2008) Twentieth-century trends in the thermal growing season in the greater Baltic area. Clim Chang 87(3–4):405–419. doi:10.1007/s10584-007-9327-3

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Liu BH, Henderson M, Zhang YD, Xu M (2010) Spatiotemporal change in China’s climatic growing season: 1955-2000. Clim Chang 99(1–2):93–118. doi:10.1007/s10584-009-9662-7

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Liu XF, Zhu XF, Pan YZ, Zhu WQ, Zhang JS, Zhang DH (2016) Thermal growing season and response of alpine grassland to climate variability across the three-rivers headwater region, China. Agric For Meteorol 220:30–37. doi:10.1016/j.agrformet.2016.01.015

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Lobell DB, Bänziger M, Magorokosho C, Vivek B (2011) Nonlinear heat effects on African maize as evidenced by historical yield trials. Nat Clim Chang 1(1):42–45. doi:10.1038/nclimate1043

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ma S, Pitman AJ, Lorenz R, Kala J, Srbinovsky J (2016) Earlier green-up and spring warming amplification over Europe. Geophys Res Lett 43(5):2011–2018. doi:10.1002/2016GL068062

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Massetti E, Mendelsohn R, Chonabayashi S (2016) How well do degree days over the growing season capture the effect of climate on farmland values? Energ Econ 60:144–150. doi:10.1016/j.eneco.2016.09.004

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Mix K, Lopes VL, Rast W (2012) Growing season expansion and related changes in monthly temperature and growing degree days in the Inter-Montane Desert of the San Luis Valley, Colorado. Clim Chang 114(3–4):723–744. doi:10.1007/s10584-012-0448-y

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Neild RE, Seeley MW (2011) Growing degree days predictions for corn and sorghum development and some applications to crop production in Nebraska. Neotrop Ichthyol 9(4):747–756

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Neuheimer AB, Taggart CT (2007) The growing degree-day and fish size-at-age: the overlooked metric. Can J Fish Aquat Sci 64(2):375–385(311). doi:10.1139/F07-003

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Piao SL, Ciais P, Friedlingstein P, Peylin P, Reichstein M, Luyssaert S, Margolis H, Fang JY, Barr A, Chen AP, Grelle A, Hollinger DY, Tuomas L, Anders L, RA D, Timo V (2008) Net carbon dioxide losses of northern ecosystems in response to autumn warming. Nature 451(7174):49–52. doi:10.1038/nature06444

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Prentice IC (1992) A global biome model based on plant physiology and dominance, soil properties and climate. J Biogeogr 19(2):117–134. doi:10.2307/2845499

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Qin NX, Chen X, Fu GB, Zhai JQ, Xue XW (2010) Precipitation and temperature trends for the Southwest China: 1960–2007. Hydrol Process 24(25):3733–3744. doi:10.1002/hyp.7192

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ren GY, Guo J, Xu ZM, Chu ZY, Zhang L, Zhou XK, Li QX, Liu XN (2005) Climate changes of China’s mainland over the past half century. Acta Meteorol Sin 63(6):942–956. doi:10.11676/qxxb2005.090

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Richardson A, Bailey A, Denny E, Martin C, O'Keefe J (2006) Phenology of a northern hardwood forest canopy. Glob Chang Biol 12(7):1174–1188. doi:10.1002/hyp.7192

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Robeson SM (2002) Increasing growing-season length in Illinois during the 20th century. Clim Chang 52(1–2):219–238. doi:10.1023/A:1013088011223

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ruosteenoja K, Raisanen J, Venalainen A, Kamarainen M (2016) Projections for the duration and degree days of the thermal growing season in Europe derived from CMIP5 model output. Int J Climatol 36(8):3039–3055. doi:10.1002/joc.4535

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Shen MG, Tang YH, Chen J, Yang W (2012) Specification of thermal growing season in temperate China from 1960 to 2009. Clim Chang 114(3–4):783–798. doi:10.1007/s10584-012-0434-4

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Skaggs RH, Baker DG (1985) Fluctuations in the length of the growing season in Minnesota. Clim Chang 7(4):403–414. doi:10.1007/BF00139055

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Sneyers R (1990) On the statistical analysis of series of observation. WMO, technical note no. 143. World meteorological society, Geneve

  • Song YL, Linderholm HW, Chen D, Walther A (2010) Trends of the thermal growing season in China, 1951-2007. Int J Climatol 30:33–43. doi:10.1002/joc.1868

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Song YL, Zhao YX, Wang CY (2011) Changes of accumulated temperature, growing season and precipitation in the North China plain from 1961 to 2009. Acta Meteorol Sin 25(4):534–543. doi:10.1007/s13351-011-0412-1

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Spinoni J, Vogt J, Barbosa P (2015) European degree-day climatologies and trends for the period 1951-2011. Int J Climatol 35(1):25–36. doi:10.1002/joc.3959

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Swan JB, Schneider EC, Moncrief JF, Paulson WH, Peterson AE (1987) Estimating corn growth, yield, and grain moisture from air growing degree days and residue Cover1. Agron J 79(1):53–60. doi:10.2134/agronj1987.00021962007900010012x

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Tao FL, Yokozawa M, Hayashi Y, Lin ED (2003) Changes in agricultural water demands and soil moisture in China over the last half-century and their effects on agricultural production. Agric For Meteorol 118(3):251–261. doi:10.1016/S0168-1923(03)00107-2

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Tao G, Zhang XB, Wulan (2010) A seasonal forecast scheme for spring dust storm predictions in Northern China. Meteorol Appl 17(4):433–441. doi:10.1002/met.175

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Trudgill DL, Honek A, Li D, Straalen NM (2005) Thermal time - concepts and utility. Ann Appl Biol 146(1):1–14. doi:10.1111/j.1744-7348.2005.04088.x

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wang HJ, Ge QS, Rutishauser T, Dai YX, Dai JH (2015) Parameterization of temperature sensitivity of spring phenology and its application in explaining diverse phenological responses to temperature change. Sci Rep-UK 5:8833. doi:10.1038/srep08833

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • White MA, Running SW, Thornton PE (1999) The impact of growing-season length variability on carbon assimilation and evapotranspiration over 88 years in the eastern US deciduous forest. Int J Biometeorol 42(3):139–145. doi:10.1007/s004840050097

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Woodward FI, Williams BG (1987) Climate and plant distribution at global and local scales. Vegetation 69(1–3):189–197. doi:10.1007/BF00038700

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Xu XL, Cao MK, Li KR (2007) Temporal-spatial dynamics of carbon storage of forest vegetation in China. Prog Geogr 26(6):1–10

    CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Yan ZW, Xia JJ, Qian C, Zhou W (2011) Changes in seasonal cycle and extremes in China during the period 1960–2008. Adv Atmos Sci 28(2):269–283. doi:10.1007/s00376-010-0006-3

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Yang XC, Tian Z, Chen BD (2013) Thermal growing season trends in east China, with emphasis on urbanization effects. Int J Climatol 33(10):2402–2412. doi:10.1002/joc.3590

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Yang XG, Chen F, Lin X, Liu Z, Zhang H, Zhao J, Li K, Ye Q, Li Y, Lv S (2015) Potential benefits of climate change for crop productivity in China. Agric For Meteorol 208:76–84. doi:10.1016/j.agrformet.2015.04.024

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Yin YH, Deng HY, Wu SH (2017) A new method for generating the thermal growing degree-days and season in China during the last century. Int J Climatol 37:1131–1140. doi:10.1002/joc.4781

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Yin YH, Wu SH, Chen G, Dai EF (2010) Attribution analyses of potential evapotranspiration changes in China since the 1960s. Theor App Climatol 101(1–2):19–28. doi:10.1007/s00704-009-0197-7

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Young R, Held D. 2011. Using degree-days and plant phenology to predict pest activity. pp 49-59

  • Yu K, Xie SP (2013) Recent global-warming hiatus tied to equatorial Pacific surface cooling. Nature 501(7467):403–407. doi:10.1038/nature12534

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Zhang L, Huo ZG, Wang L, Jiang YY (2012) Effects of climate change on the occurrence of crop insect pests in China. Chinese J Ecol 31(6):1499–1507

    Google Scholar 

  • Zhang Z, Song X, Tao FL, Zhang S, Shi WJ (2016) Climate trends and crop production in China at county scale, 1980 to 2008. Theor App Climatol 123(1):1–12. doi:10.1007/s00704-014-1343-4

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Zhao SQ (1983) A new scheme for comprehensive physical regionalization in China. Acta Geographica Sinica (1): 1–10

  • Zinkernagel J, Schmidt N, Kahlen K (2015) Changing thermal growing season and climatic water balance affect irrigation and cultivation period of vegetables. Procedia Environ Sci 29:51–52. doi:10.1016/j.proenv.2015.07.153

    Article  Google Scholar 

Download references

Acknowledgements

This work was supported by the Key Program of National Natural Science Foundation of China (41530749), the National Natural Science Foundation of China (41571043), and the Strategic Priority Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, Climate Change: Carbon Budget and Relevant Issues (XDA05090304, XDA05090307). We would like to express our thanks to Prof. Z.W. Yan and Dr. Z. Li from Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences who provided the homogenized daily mean temperature dataset for the paper.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, 11A Datun Road, Chaoyang District, Beijing, 100101, China

    Yunhe Yin, Haoyu Deng & Shaohong Wu

  2. College of Resources and Environment, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, 19A Yuquan Road, Shijingshan District, Beijing, 100049, China

    Haoyu Deng & Shaohong Wu

Authors
  1. Yunhe Yin
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. Haoyu Deng
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  3. Shaohong Wu
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Shaohong Wu.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and Permissions

About this article

Check for updates. Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this article

Yin, Y., Deng, H. & Wu, S. Spatial-temporal variations in the thermal growing degree-days and season under climate warming in China during 1960–2011. Int J Biometeorol 63, 649–658 (2019). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00484-017-1417-y

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Revised:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00484-017-1417-y

Keywords

search

Navigation