Skip to main content

Advertisement

SpringerLink
Log in

Effects of diurnal variations in temperature on non-accidental mortality among the elderly population of Montreal, Québec, 1984–2007

  • Original Paper
  • Published:
International Journal of Biometeorology Aims and scope Submit manuscript

An Erratum to this article was published on 13 June 2013

Abstract

The association between ambient temperature and mortality has been studied extensively. Recent data suggest an independent role of diurnal temperature variations in increasing daily mortality. Elderly adults—a growing subgroup of the population in developed countries—may be more susceptible to the effects of temperature variations. The aim of this study was to determine whether variations in diurnal temperature were associated with daily non-accidental mortality among residents of Montreal, Québec, who were 65 years of age and over during the period between 1984 and 2007. We used distributed lag non-linear Poisson models constrained over a 30-day lag period, adjusted for temporal trends, mean daily temperature, and mean daily concentrations of nitrogen dioxide and ozone to estimate changes in daily mortality with diurnal temperature. We found, over the 30 day lag period, a cumulative increase in daily mortality of 5.12 % [95 % confidence interval (CI): 0.02–10.49 %] for a change from 5.9 °C to 11.1 °C (25th to 75th percentiles) in diurnal temperature, and a 11.27 % (95%CI: 2.08–21.29 %) increase in mortality associated with an increase of diurnal temperature from 11.1 to 17.5 °C (75th to 99th percentiles). The results were relatively robust to adjustment for daily mean temperature. We found that, in Montreal, diurnal variations in temperature are associated with a small increase in non-accidental mortality among the elderly population. More studies are needed in different geographical locations to confirm this effect.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Fig. 1
Fig. 2

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  • Armstrong B (2006) Models for the relationship between ambient temperature and daily mortality. Epidemiology 17:624–631

    Google Scholar 

  • Barrow MW, Clark KA (1998) Heat-related illnesses. Am Fam Physician 58:749–756

    Google Scholar 

  • Basu R, Samet JM (2002) Relation between elevated ambient temperature and mortality: a review of the epidemiologic evidence. Epidemiol Rev 24(2):190–202

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Beers MH, Jones TV, Berkwits M, Kaplan JL, Porter R (2004) The Merck manual of health and aging. Merck Research Laboratories, Whitehouse Station

    Google Scholar 

  • Belmin J, Auffray JC, Berbezier C, Boirin P, Mercier S, de Reviers B, Golmard JL (2007) Level of dependency: a simple marker associated with mortality during the 2003 heatwave among French dependent elderly people living in the community or in institutions. Age Ageing 36(3):298–303

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Braga AL, Zanobetti A, Schwartz J (2002) The effect of weather on respiratory and cardiovascular deaths in 12 US cities. Environ Health Perspect 110(9):859–863

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Brook JR, Burnett RT, Dann TF, Cakmak S, Goldberg MS, Fan X, Wheeler AJ (2007) Further interpretation of the acute effect of nitrogen dioxide observed in Canadian time-series studies. J Expo Sci Environ Epidemiol 17:S36–S44. doi: 10.1038/sj.jes.7500626

    Google Scholar 

  • Cao J, Cheng Y, Zhao N, Song W, Jiang C, Chen R, Kan H (2009) Diurnal temperature range is a risk factor for coronary heart disease death. J Epidemiol 19(6):328–332

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Carson C, Hajat S, Armstrong B, Wilkinson P (2001) Declining vulnerability to temperature-related mortality in London over the 20th century. Am J Epidemiol 164(1):77–84

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Conti S, Meli P, Minelli G, Solimini R, Toccaceli V, Vichi M, Beltrano C, Perini L (2005) Epidemiologic study of mortality during the summer 2003 heat wave in Italy. Environ Res 98(3):390–399

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Conti S, Masocco M, Meli P, Minelli G, Palummeri E, Solimini R, Toccaceli V, Vichi M (2007) General and specific mortality among the elderly during the 2003 heat wave in Genoa (Italy). Environ Res 103(2):267–274

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Curriero FC, Heiner KS, Samet JM, Zeger SL, Strug L, Patz JA (2002) Temperature and mortality in 11 cities of the eastern United States. Am J Epidemiol 155(1):80–87

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Davis RE, Knappenberger PC, Michaels PJ, Novicoff WM (2003a) Changing heat-related mortality in the United States. Environ Health Perspect 111(14):1712–1718

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Davis RE, Knappenberger PC, Novicoff WM, Michaels PJ (2003b) Decadal changes in summer mortality in US cities. Int J Biometeorol 47(3):166–175

    Google Scholar 

  • Dessai S (2002) Heat stress and mortality in Lisbon Part I. Model construction and validation. Int J Biometeorol 47(1):6–12

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Donaldson GC, Kovats RS, Keatinge WR, McMichael AJ (2001) Heat- and cold-related mortality and morbidity and climate change. In: Maynard R (ed) Health effects of climate change in the UK. Department of Health, London, pp 70–80

  • Donaldson GC, Keatinge WR, Nayha S (2003) Changes in summer temperature and heat-related mortality since 1971 in North Carolina, South Finland, and Southeast England. Environ Res 91(1):1–7

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Doyon B, Belanger D, Gosselin P (2008) The potential impact of climate change on annual and seasonal mortality for three cities in Quebec, Canada. Int J Health Geogr 7:23. doi: 10.1186/1476-072X-7-23

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Easterling DR, Horton B, Jones PD, Peterson TC, Karl TR, Parker DE, Salinger MJ, Razuvayev V, Plummer N, Jamason P, Folland CK (1997) Maximum and minimum temperature trends for the globe. Science 277(5324):364–367

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Environment Canada—National Climate Data and Information Archive (2010) Climate data online: hourly data. http://www.climate.weatheroffice.ec.gc.ca/Welcome_e.html

  • Garssen J, Harmsen C, de Beer J (2005) The effect of the summer 2003 heat wave on mortality in the Netherlands. Euro Surveill 10(7):165–168

    CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Gasparrini A, Armstrong B, Kenward MG (2010) Distributed lag non-linear models. Statistics in Medicine 29(21):2224–2234

    Google Scholar 

  • Gemmell I, McLoone P, Boddy FA, Dickinson GJ, Watt GC (2000) Seasonal variation in mortality in Scotland. Int J Epidemiol 29(2):274–279

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Goldberg MS (2003) Revised analysis of the Montreal time-series study. In: Health Effects Institute (ed) Revised analyses of time-series studies of air pollution and health. Special report. Health Effects Institute, Boston, pp 113–132

    Google Scholar 

  • Goldberg MS, Burnett RT, Yale JF, Valois MF, Brook JR (2006) Associations between ambient air pollution and daily mortality among persons with diabetes and cardiovascular disease. Environ Res 100:255–267

    Google Scholar 

  • Goldberg MS, Gasparrini A, Armstrong B, Valois MF (2011) The short-term influence of temperature on daily mortality in the temperate climate of Montreal, Canada. Environ Res 111(6):853–860

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Goodwin J (2007) A deadly harvest: the effects of cold on older people in the UK. Br J Commun Nurs 12(1):23–26

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Gosling SN, McGregor GR, Paldy A (2007) Climate change and heat-related mortality in six cities part 1: model construction and validation. Int J Biometeorol 51(6):525–540

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Gosling SN, Lowe JA, McGregor G, Pelling M, Malamud BD (2009) Associations between elevated atmospheric temperature and human mortality: a critical review of the literature. Springer, Dordrecht, pp 299–341

    Google Scholar 

  • Gouveia N, Hajat S, Armstrong B (2003) Socioeconomic differentials in the temperature-mortality relationship in Sao Paulo, Brazil [see comment]. Int J Epidemiol 32(3):390–397

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Guo Y, Barnett AG, Tong S (2013) Spatiotemporal model or time series model for assessing city-wide temperature effects on mortality? Environ Res 120:55–62

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Hajat S, Armstrong BG, Gouveia N, Wilkinson P (2005) Mortality displacement of heat-related deaths: a comparison of Delhi, Sao Paulo, and London. Epidemiology 16(5):613–620

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Havenith G, Kirch W, Menne B, Bertollini R (2005) Temperature regulation, heat balance and climatic stress. In: 4th Ministerial Conference on Environment and Health, Extreme Weather Events and Public Health Responses, Budapest, Hungary, pp 69-80, doi: 10.1007/3-540-28862-7_7

  • Huynen MM, Martens P, Schram D, Weijenberg MP, Kunst AE (2001) The impact of heat waves and cold spells on mortality rates in the Dutch population. Environ Heal Perspect 109(5):463–470

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Kaiser R, Le TA, Schwartz J, Gotway CA, Daley WR, Rubin CH (2007) The effect of the 1995 heat wave in Chicago on all-cause and cause-specific mortality. Am J Public Health 97:S158–162

    Google Scholar 

  • Kan H, London SJ, Chen H, Song G, Chen G, Jiang L, Zhao N, Zhang Y, Chen B (2007) Diurnal temperature range and daily mortality in Shanghai, China. Environ Res 103(3):424–431

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Keatinge WR, Donaldson GC, Cordioli E, Martinelli M, Kunst AE, Mackenbach JP, Nayha S, Vuori I (2000) Heat related mortality in warm and cold regions of Europe: observational study. BMJ 321(7262):670–673

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Kovats S, Patz JA, Dobbins D (1998) Global climate change and environmental health: proceedings of the 1997 annual conference of the society for occupational and environmental health. Int J Occup Environ Health 4(1):41–52

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • LeTertre A, Lefranc A, Eilstein D, Declercq C, Medina S, Blanchard M, Chardon B, Fabre P, Filleul L, Jusot JF, Pascal L, Prouvost H, Cassadou S, Ledrans M (2006) Impact of the 2003 heatwave on all-cause mortality in 9 French cities. Epidemiology 17(1):75–79

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Liang WM, Liu WP, Kuo HW (2009) Diurnal temperature range and emergency room admissions for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease in Taiwan. Int J Biometeorol 53(1):17–23

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Makowski K, Wild M, and Ohmura A (2008) Diurnal temperature range over Europe between 1950 and 2005. Atmos Chem Phys 8:6483–6498

    Google Scholar 

  • Martens WJ (1998) Climate change, thermal stress and mortality changes. Soc Sci Med 46(3):331–344

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • McMichael AJ, Woodruff RE, Hales S (2006) Climate change and human health: present and future risks. Lancet 367(9513):859–869

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Michelozzi P, de’Donato F, Bisanti L, Russo A, Cadum E, Demaria M, D’Ovidio M, Costa G, Perucci CA (2005) The impact of the summer 2003 heat waves on mortality in four Italian cities. Euro Surveill 10(7):161–165

    CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Miller C (2009) Thermoregulation. In: Miller C (ed) Nursing for wellness in older adults. Kluwer/Lippincot Williams&Wilkins, Baltimore, pp  528–540

  • Neuberger M, Rabczenko D, Moshammer H (2007) Extended effects of air pollution on cardiopulmonary mortality in Vienna. Atmos Environ 41:8549–8556

    Google Scholar 

  • NOAA National Weather Service. 2009. Glossary. http://www.nws.noaa.gov/glossary/

  • O’Neill MS, Zanobetti A, Schwartz J (2003) Modifiers of the temperature and mortality association in seven US cities. Am J Epidemiol 157(12):1074–1082

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Páldy A, Bobvos J, Vámos A, Kovats R, Hajat S (2005) The effect of temperature and heat waves on daily mortality in Budapest, Hungary, 1970–2000. Extreme Weather Events Public Health Responses 2005:99–107

  • Pattenden S, Nikiforov B, Armstrong BG (2003) Mortality and temperature in Sofia and London. J Epidemiol Community Health 57(8):628–633

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Quebec Portal. 2012. Quebec Climate. http://www.gouv.qc.ca/portail/quebec/pgs/commun/portrait/geographie/climat/?lang=en

  • Ren C, Tong S (2006) Temperature modifies the health effects of particulate matter in Brisbane, Australia. Int J Biometeorol 51(2):87–96

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ren C, Williams GM, Morawska L, Mengersen K, Tong S (2008) Ozone modifies associations between temperature and cardiovascular mortality: analysis of the NMMAPS data. Occup Environ Med 65(4):255–260

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Roberts S (2004) Interactions between particulate air pollution and temperature in air pollution mortality time series studies. Environ Res 96(3):328–337

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Samet JM, Dominici F, Zeger SL, Schwartz J, Dockery DW (2000) The national morbidity, mortality, and air pollution study. Part I: Methods and methodologic issues. Research Report 94, Health Effects Institute, Cambridge, MA, pp 5–14

  • Sartor F, Snacken R, Demuth C, Walckiers D (1995) Temperature, ambient ozone levels, and mortality during summer 1994, in Belgium. Environ Res 70(2):105–113

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Schar C, Jendritzky G (2004) Climate change: hot news from summer 2003. Nature 432(7017):559–560

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Semenza JC, Rubin CH, Falter KH, Selanikio JD, Flanders WD, Howe HL, Wilhelm JL (1996) Heat-related deaths during the July 1995 heat wave in Chicago. N Engl J Med 335(2):84–90

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Simon F, Lopez-Abente G, Ballester E, Martinez F (2005) Mortality in Spain during the heat waves of summer 2003. Euro Surveill 10(7):156–161

    CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Smargiassi A, Goldberg MS, Plante C, Fournier M, Baudouin Y, Kosatsky T (2009) Variation of daily warm season mortality as a function of micro-urban heat islands. J Epidemiol Community Health 63(8):659–664

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Song G, Chen G, Jiang L, Zhang Y, Zhao N, Chen B, Kan H (2008) Diurnal temperature range as a novel risk factor for COPD death. Respirology 13(7):1066–1069

    Google Scholar 

  • Statistics Canada (2012) 2006 Census data products—age and sex, percentage change (2001 to 2006) for both sexes, for Canada, provinces and territories. https://www12.statcan.gc.ca/census-recensement/2006/rt-td/as-eng.cfm

  • Tam WWS, Wong TW, Chair SY, Wong AHS (2009) Diurnal temperature range and daily cardiovascular mortalities among the elderly in Hong Kong. Arch Environ Occup Health 64(3):202–206

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Vandentorren S, Suzan F, Medina S, Pascal M, Maulpoix A, Cohen JC, Ledrans M (2004) Mortality in 13 French cities during the August 2003 heat wave. Am J Public Health 94(9):1518–1520

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Whitman S, Good G, Donoghue ER, Benbow N, Shou W, Mou S (1997) Mortality in Chicago attributed to the July 1995 heat wave. Am J Public Health 87(9):1515–1518

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Worfolk JB (2000) Heat waves: their impact on the health of elders. Geriatr Nurs 21(2):70–77

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Zanobetti A, Wand MP, Schwartz J, Ryan LM (2000) Generalized additive distributed lag models: quantifying mortality displacement. Biostatistics 1:279–992

    Google Scholar 

Download references

Acknowledgments

We thank the Ministère de la Santé et des Services Sociaux de Québec for providing the health data. We also thank Environment Canada and the Montreal Urban Community for providing the weather and air pollution data.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Division of Gastroenterology, McGill University Health Center, Royal Victoria Hospital, 687 Pine Avenue West, RVH, Pavilion Ross R4.32, Montreal, Québec, H3A 1A1, Canada

    Maria Vutcovici

  2. Department of Medicine, McGill University, Royal Victoria Hospital, Montreal, Canada

    Mark S. Goldberg & Marie-France Valois

  3. Division of Clinical Epidemiology, McGill University Health Center, Montreal, Canada

    Mark S. Goldberg & Marie-France Valois

Authors
  1. Maria Vutcovici
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. Mark S. Goldberg
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  3. Marie-France Valois
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Maria Vutcovici.

Electronic supplementary material

Below is the link to the electronic supplementary material.

ESM 1

(PDF 140 KB)

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Cite this article

Vutcovici, M., Goldberg, M.S. & Valois, MF. Effects of diurnal variations in temperature on non-accidental mortality among the elderly population of Montreal, Québec, 1984–2007. Int J Biometeorol 58, 843–852 (2014). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00484-013-0664-9

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Revised:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00484-013-0664-9

Keywords

Search

Navigation