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Table 3 Fixed effects of a GLMM explaining variation in species-specific uphill change in center-of-gravity in relation to historical range (COG1978 = standardized mean center-of-gravity in 1978–1982), over-wintering developmental stage (adult; egg; adolescent larva; larva in a unspecified developmental stage; fully grown larva or pupa), life cycle (annual; biennial), host type (dwarf shrubs; herbaceous plants; trees and bushes = canopy; mixed diet = woody dwarf shrubs and herbaceous plants; non-vascular plants = mosses or lichens; non-plants = rotten wood, fungi or animal feathers and hairs), and the degree of host specificity (polyphagy; oligophagy; monophagy; unspecified)

From: Climate change-driven elevational changes among boreal nocturnal moths

Source of variationParameterEstimate (posterior mean)95% HPD credibility intervalNeff
Lower limitUpper limit
 (Intercept)10.18− 11.331.81> 20,000
Historical rangeCOG19780.50− 0.021.22> 20,000
(COG1978)2− 0.02− 0.03− 1.65 × 10−4> 20,000
Over-wintering stage (adult)Egg18.08− 3.7039.70> 20,000
Larva (unspecified)19.45− 3.0242.13> 20,000
Larva (adolescent)18.15− 2.9139.12> 20,000
Larva (fully grown)/pupa26.955.4748.04> 20,000
Host type (dwarf shrubs)Herbaceous plants− 28.90− 40.76− 17.32> 20,000
Mixed diet1.14− 14.1312.20> 20,000
Trees or bushes− 14.34− 22.04− 6.51> 20,000
Non-vascular plants− 0.63− 14.5913.52> 20,000
Non-plants− 14.44− 29.921.03> 20,000
Life cycle (annual)Biennial− 12.37− 23.78− 1.1713,732
Host specificity (polyphagy)Monophagy6.73− 0.01513.49> 20,000
Oligophagy− 1.83− 10.156.40> 20,000
Unspecified− 2.95− 15.459.22> 20,000
  1. Random effect variances: superfamily: 3.53 (1.40 × 10−4..0.18.25), family: 5.33 (1.20 × 10−4…28.5), genus: 36.99 (1.04 × 10−4..0.109.80), model residuals: 57.36 (8.05…112.00)
  2. Random effect structure included grouping factors genus, family and superfamily to control for varying evolutionary history of species