A multitude of studies confirm that species have changed their distribution ranges towards higher elevations and towards the poles, as has been predicted by climate change forecasts. However, there is large interspecific variation in the velocity of range shifts. From a conservation perspective, it is important to understand which factors explain variation in the speed and the extent of range shifts, as these might be related to the species’ extinction risk. Here, we study shifts in the mean latitude of occurrence, as weighted by population density, in different groups of landbirds using 40 years of line transect data from Finland. Our results show that the velocity of such density shifts differed among migration strategies and increased with decreasing body size of species, while breeding habitat had no influence. The slower velocity of large species could be related to their longer generation time and lower per capita reproduction that can decrease the dispersal ability compared to smaller species. In contrast to some earlier studies of range margin shifts, resident birds and partial migrants showed faster range shifts, while fully migratory species were moving more slowly. The results suggest that migratory species, especially long-distance migrants, which often show decreasing population trends, might also have problems in adjusting their distribution ranges to keep pace with global warming.
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We are very grateful to the hundreds of birdwatchers who have participated in data collection. The Finnish Ministry of Environment has economically supported line transect censuses. Thanks also to Raimo Virkkala for discussion related to the paper and to the two anonymous reviewers for good feedback. K.V. received funding from the Kone Foundation (Decision No. 46-1097), and A.Le. from the Academy of Finland (Decision No. 275606).
Author contribution statement
A.Le and K.V. had the original idea. K.V. and A.Li analyzed the data. K.V., A.Le and A.Li wrote the manuscript.
Conflict of interest
The authors declare that they have no conflict of interest.
Communicated by Christopher Whelan.
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Välimäki, K., Lindén, A. & Lehikoinen, A. Velocity of density shifts in Finnish landbird species depends on their migration ecology and body mass. Oecologia 181, 313–321 (2016). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00442-015-3525-x
- Range shifts
- Global change
- Climate change
- Ecological traits