Winter rainfall predicts phenology in widely separated populations of a migrant songbird
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Climate change is affecting behaviour and phenology in many animals. In migratory birds, weather patterns both at breeding and at non-breeding sites can influence the timing of spring migration and breeding. However, variation in responses to weather across a species range has rarely been studied, particularly among populations that may winter in different locations. We used prior knowledge of migratory connectivity to test the influence of weather from predicted non-breeding sites on bird phenology in two breeding populations of a long-distance migratory bird species separated by 3,000 km. We found that winter rainfall showed similar associations with arrival and egg-laying dates in separate breeding populations on an east–west axis: greater rainfall in Jamaica and eastern Mexico was generally associated with advanced American redstart (Setophaga ruticilla) phenology in Ontario and Alberta, respectively. In Ontario, these patterns of response could largely be explained by changes in the behaviour of individual birds, i.e., phenotypic plasticity. By explicitly incorporating migratory connectivity into responses to climate, our data suggest that widely separated breeding populations can show independent and geographically specific associations with changing weather conditions. The tendency of individuals to delay migration and breeding following dry winters could result in population declines due to predicted drying trends in tropical areas and the tight linkage between early arrival/breeding and reproductive success in long-distance migrants.
KeywordsAmerican redstart Climate change Migration Migratory connectivity Setophaga ruticilla
We thank all of the field assistants who contributed to this study. C. Eckert helped with data analysis. Funding was provided by Queen’s University, the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada, the Canadian Foundation for Innovation, the National Science Foundation, the Smithsonian Institution, the Ontario Innovation Trust, Sigma Xi, the American Ornithologists’ Union, the Society of Canadian Ornithologists, and the American Museum of Natural History. Procedures were performed in accordance with permits from the Queen’s University Animal Care Committee (Ratcliffe-2010-009) and the Canadian Wildlife Services (banding permit 10771E and collection permit CA0233). All methods used in this study comply with current laws of the country in which they were performed.
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