Skip to main content

Advertisement

SpringerLink
Log in

Projected changes in the characteristics of the East Asian summer monsoonal front and their impacts on the regional precipitation

  • Published:
Climate Dynamics Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

Summer monsoonal rainfall over East Asia is dominated by precipitation associated with the East Asian summer monsoonal front (EASMF). A Community Atmospheric Model (CAM5.1) with a high horizontal resolution of 50 km is employed in this study to investigate the interannual variability as well as projected future trends in the EASMF under the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 scenario. Seasonal march of the EASMF is reproduced reasonably well in the model’s present-day simulation despite a northward shift of the simulated front from its observed position. Based upon a suite of objectively-defined daily indices of the EASMF, we show that the EASMF in the late twenty-first century will be more intense and displaced eastward and southward from its present-day mean location. Moreover, EASMF events will exhibit a wider meridional expansion and a longer duration. Monsoonal precipitation over East Asia is particularly sensitive to the meridional displacements of EASMF. In conjunction with the projected southward shift of EASMF, an enhanced rain band is seen to extend northeastward from southern China to the northwestern Pacific south of Japan. This precipitation feature is associated with strengthened and southward-shifted westerly jet streams at 250 and 700 hPa, which are respectively linked to tropical warming in the upper troposphere and warming over the South China Sea in the lower troposphere during the twenty-first century. Within the latitudinal “gap” south of the upper-level jet and north of the lower-level jet, the local vorticity tendencies are maintained by upper-level divergence and lower-level convergence, thus accompanied by enhanced upward motion and precipitation. The site at which this “jet stream-precipitation” relationship prevails is notably modulated by long-term trends in the temperature and circulation patterns associated with climate change.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Fig. 1
Fig. 2
Fig. 3
Fig. 4
Fig. 5
Fig. 6
Fig. 7
Fig. 8
Fig. 9
Fig. 10

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  • Boos WR, Hurley JV (2013) Thermodynamic bias in the multimodel mean boreal summer monsoon. J Clim 26:2279–2287

    Google Scholar 

  • Chen GTJ (2004) Research on the phenomena of Meiyu during the past quarter century: an overview. In: Chang CP (ed) The East Asian monsoon. World Scientific, Singapore, pp 357–403

    Google Scholar 

  • Chen G, Zhang P, Lu J (2020) Sensitivity of the latitude of the westerly jet stream to climate forcing. Geophys Res Lett 47:e2019GL086563. https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL086563

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Chiang JCH, Fischer J, Kong W, Herman MJ (2019) Intensification of the pre-Meiyu rainband in the late 21st century. Geophys Res Lett 46:7536–7545

    Google Scholar 

  • Dai Y, Lu R (2013) Projected change in the relationship between East Asian summer rainfall and upper-tropospheric westerly jet. Chin Sci Bull 58:1436–1442

    Google Scholar 

  • Dai A, Li H, Sun Y, Hong LC, LinHo CC, Zhou T (2013) The relative roles of upper and lower tropospheric thermal contrasts and tropical influences in driving Asian summer monsoons. J Geophys Res 118:7024–7045

    Google Scholar 

  • Day J, Fung I, Liu W (2018) Changing character of rainfall in eastern China, 1951–2007. PNAS 115(9):2016–2021

    Google Scholar 

  • Dee DP et al (2011) The ERA-Interim reanalysis: configuration and performance of the data assimilation system. Q J R Meteorol Soc 137:553–597

    Google Scholar 

  • Ding Y (2007) The variability of the Asian summer monsoon. J Meteor Soc Jpn 85:858–854

    Google Scholar 

  • Ding Y, Chan JCL (2005) The East Asian summer monsoon: an overview. Meteorol Atmos Phys 89:117–142

    Google Scholar 

  • Ding Y, Wang Z, Sun Y (2008) Inter-decadal variation of the summer precipitation in East China and its association with decreasing Asian summer monsoon. Part I: observed evidence. Int J Climatol 28(9):1139–1161

    Google Scholar 

  • Ding Y, Liang P, Liu Y, Zhang Y (2020) Multiscale variability of Meiyu and its prediction: a new review. J Geophys Res Atmos 125:e2019JD031496. https://doi.org/10.1029/2019JD031496

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Dong L, Xu X, Zhao T, Ren H (2019) Linkage between moisture transport over the Yangtze River Basin and a critical area of the Tibetan Plateau during the Meiyu. Clim Dyn 53(5–6):2643–2662

    Google Scholar 

  • Freychet N, Hsu H, Chou C, Wu C (2015) Asian summer monsoon in CMIP5 projections: a link between the change in extreme precipitation and monsoon dynamics. J Clim 28:1477–1493

    Google Scholar 

  • Fu Q, Manabe S, Johanson MC (2011) On the warming in the tropical upper troposphere: models versus observations. Geophys Res Lett 38:L15704

    Google Scholar 

  • Ha KJ, Kim BH, Chung ES, Chan JCL, Chang CP (2020a) Major factors of global and regional monsoon rainfall changes: natural versus anthropogenic forcing. Environ Res Lett 15(3):034055

    Google Scholar 

  • Ha KJ, Moon S, Timmermann A, Kim D (2020b) Future changes of summer monsoon characteristics and evaporative demand over Asia in CMIP6 simulations. Geophys Res Lett 47(8):e2020GL087492

    Google Scholar 

  • Held IM, Soden BJ (2006) Robust responses of the hydrological cycle to global warming. J Clim 19:5686–5699

    Google Scholar 

  • Hirahara S, Ohno H, Oikawa Y, Maeda S (2012) Strengthening of the southern side of the jet stream and delayed withdrawal of Baiu season in future climate. J Meteorol Soc Jpn 90:663–671

    Google Scholar 

  • Horinouchi T (2014) Influence of upper tropospheric disturbances on the synoptic variability of precipitation and moisture transport over summertime East Asia and the northwestern Pacific. J Meteorol Soc Jpn 92(6):519–541

    Google Scholar 

  • Horinouchi T, Hayashi A (2017) Meandering subtropical jet and precipitation over summertime East Asia and the northwestern Pacific. J Atmos Sci 74:1233–1247

    Google Scholar 

  • Horinouchi T, Matsumura S, Ose T, Takayabu Y (2019) Jet–precipitation relation and future change of the mei-yu–baiu rainband and subtropical jet in CMIP5 coupled GCM simulations. J Clim 32:2247–2259

    Google Scholar 

  • Hoskins BJ, McIntyre ME, Robertson AW (1985) On the use and significance of isentropic potential vorticity maps. Quart J R Meteor Soc 111:877–946

    Google Scholar 

  • Hsu P, Li T, Luo JJ, Murakami H, Kitoh A, Zhao M (2012) Increase of global monsoon area and precipitation under global warming: a robust signal? Geophys Res Lett 39:L06701

    Google Scholar 

  • Kim HJ, Wang B, Ding Q (2008) The global monsoon variability simulated by CMIP3 coupled climate models. J Clim 21:5271–5294

    Google Scholar 

  • Kitoh A, Endo H, Kumar KK, Cavalcanti IF, Goswami P, Zhou T (2013) Monsoons in a changing world: a regional perspective in a global context. J Geophys Res Atmos 118:3053–3065

    Google Scholar 

  • Kong W, Chiang JCH (2019) Interaction of the westerlies with the Tibetan Plateau in determining the mei-yu termination. J Clim 33:339–363

    Google Scholar 

  • Kong W, Chiang JCH (2020) Southward shift of westerlies intensifies the East Asian early summer rainband following El Niño. Geophys Res Lett. https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL088631

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Lau NC (2011) Simulation of synoptic and sub-synoptic scale phenomena associated with the East Asian monsoon using a high-resolution GCM. In: Chang CP, Ding Y, Lau NC et al (eds) The global monsoon system, 2nd edn. World Scientific, Singapore, pp 493–508

    Google Scholar 

  • Lau NC, Ploshay JJ (2009) Simulation of synoptic- and subsynoptic-scale phenomena associated with the East Asian summer monsoon using a high-resolution GCM. Mon Weather Rev 137:137–160

    Google Scholar 

  • Li J, Wu Z, Jiang Z, He J (2010) Can global warming strengthen the East Asian summer monsoon? J Clim 23:6696–6705

    Google Scholar 

  • Li Y, Deng Y, Yang S, Zhang H (2018) Multi-scale temporospatial variability of the East Asian Meiyu–Baiu fronts—characterization with a suite of new objective indices. Clim Dyn 51:1659–1670

    Google Scholar 

  • Li Y, Deng Y, Yang S, Zhang H, Ming Y, Shen Z (2019) Multi-scale temporal-spatial variability of the East Asian summer monsoon frontal system: observation versus its representation in the GFDL HiRAM. Clim Dyn 52:6787–6798

    Google Scholar 

  • Liang P, Ding Y (2012) Climatology of intraseasonal oscillation of East Asia Meiyu. Acta Meteor Sini 3:418–435 (in Chinese)

    Google Scholar 

  • Liu G, Wu R, Zhang Y (2014) Persistence of snow cover anomalies over the Tibetan Plateau and the implications for forecasting summer precipitation over the Meiyu–Baiu region. Atmos Ocean Sci Lett 7(2):115–119

    Google Scholar 

  • Lui YS, Tam C, Lau NC (2018) Future changes in Asian summer monsoon precipitation extremes as inferred from 20-km AGCM simulations. Clim Dyn 52:1443–1459

    Google Scholar 

  • Moore TJ, Vanknowe EG (1992) The effect of jet-streak curvature on kinematic fields. Mon Weather Rev 120(11):2429–2441

    Google Scholar 

  • Ninomiya K (2004) Large- and mesoscale features of Meiyu–Baiu front associated with intense rainfalls. In: Chang CP (ed) The East Asian monsoon. World Scientific, Singapore, pp 404–435

    Google Scholar 

  • Ninomiya K, Shibagaki Y (2007) Multi-scale features of the Meiyu–Baiu front and associated precipitation systems. J Meteor Soc Jpn 58B:103–122

    Google Scholar 

  • Sampe T, Xie SP (2010) Large-scale dynamics of the Meiyu–Baiu rainband: environmental forcing by the westerly jet. J Clim 23:113–134

    Google Scholar 

  • Seidel DJ, Fu Q, Randel WJ, Reichler TJ (2008) Widening of the topical belt in a changing climate. Nat Geosci 1:21–24

    Google Scholar 

  • Sein DV, Danilov S, Biastoch A, Durgadoo VJ, Sidorenko D, Harig S, Wang Q (2016) Designing variable ocean model resolution based on the observed ocean variability. J Adv Model Earth Syst 8:904–916

    Google Scholar 

  • Sein DV, Koldunov NV, Danilov S, Sidorenko D, Wekerle C, Cabos W et al (2018) The relative influence of atmospheric and oceanic model resolution on the circulation of the North Atlantic Ocean in a coupled climate model. J Adv Model Earth Syst 10:2026–2041

    Google Scholar 

  • Si D, Ding Y (2013) Decadal change in the correlation pattern between the Tibetan Plateau winter snow and the East Asian summer precipitation during 1979–2011. J Clim 26(19):7622–7634

    Google Scholar 

  • Sperber KR, Hameed S, Potter GL, Boyle JS (1994) Simulation of the northern summer monsoon in the ECMWF model: sensitivity to horizontal resolution. Mon Weather Rev 122:2461–2481

    Google Scholar 

  • Tao S, Chen L (1987) A review of recent research on the East Asia summer monsoon over China. In: Chang CP, Krishnamurti TN (eds) Monsoon meteorology. Oxford University Press, Oxford, pp 60–92

    Google Scholar 

  • Wang Y (1992) Effects of blocking anticyclones in Eurasia in the rainy season Meiyu/Baiu season. J Meteor Soc Jpn 70:929–950

    Google Scholar 

  • Wu CH, Freychet N, Chen CA, Hsu HH (2017) East Asian pre-summer precipitation in the CMIP5 at high versus low horizontal resolution. Int J Climatol 37:4158–4170

    Google Scholar 

Download references

Acknowledgements

We thank Dr. Takeshi Horinouchi and one anonymous reviewer for providing constructive comments and suggestions. This work is supported by CUHK Direct Grant 4053331. The appointment of Ngar-Cheung Lau at the Chinese University of Hong Kong is partially supported by the AXA Research Fund. Chi-Yung Tam is supported by the Chinese University Direct Grant (no. 4053331). Yi Deng is supported by the National Science Foundation Climate and Large-Scale Dynamics (CLD) program through grants AGS-1354402 and AGS-1445956 and by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration through award NA16NWS4680013. Ho-Nam Cheung is supported by the General Program of the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant no. 41905050), the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities of China (Grant no. 19lgpy36), and Guangdong Province Key Laboratory for Climate Change and Natural Disaster Studies (Grant 2020B1212060025). The CAM5.1 simulations were performed by Ho Nam Cheung when he was a postdoctoral fellow at the University of Bergen under the support of the NordForsk TRACE project (#90077). The boundary conditions of these simulations were provided by Dmitry V Sein from Alfred Wegener Institute, Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research, Germany. Computing resources were provided by UNITETT Sigma AS (NN9390K, NS9064K).

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Institute of Environment, Energy and Sustainability, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China

    Yana Li, Ngar-Cheung Lau & Chi-Yung Tam

  2. Department of Geography and Resource Management, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China

    Ngar-Cheung Lau

  3. Earth System Science Programme, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China

    Chi-Yung Tam

  4. School of Atmospheric Sciences and Guangdong Province Key Laboratory for Climate Change and Natural Disaster Studies, Sun Yat-Sen University, Zhuhai, China

    Ho-Nam Cheung

  5. Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory, Zhuhai, China

    Ho-Nam Cheung

  6. Geophysical Institute, University of Bergen, Bergen, Norway

    Ho-Nam Cheung

  7. School of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA, USA

    Yi Deng & Henian Zhang

Authors
  1. Yana Li
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. Ngar-Cheung Lau
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  3. Chi-Yung Tam
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  4. Ho-Nam Cheung
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  5. Yi Deng
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  6. Henian Zhang
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding authors

Correspondence to Yana Li or Chi-Yung Tam.

Additional information

Publisher's Note

Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Check for updates. Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this article

Li, Y., Lau, NC., Tam, CY. et al. Projected changes in the characteristics of the East Asian summer monsoonal front and their impacts on the regional precipitation. Clim Dyn 56, 4013–4026 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-021-05687-y

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-021-05687-y

Keywords

Search

Navigation