Precipitation variability in the north fringe of East Asian Summer Monsoon during the past millennium and its possible driving factors

Abstract

Summer precipitation in the north fringe of East Asian Summer Monsoon (NFEASM) accounts for the majority of annual regional precipitation and plays an important role in regional climatology and agriculture development. Here we analyze variations in summer precipitation in the NFEASM over the past millennium using several simulations with Earth System Models and compare with two dendroclimatological hydroclimate reconstructions that partly cover the past millennium. Both reconstructed records show good agreement on past hydroclimate variations but do not show overly anomalous hydroclimate periods, except for clear drying trends in the second half of the twentieth century. The reconstructed decadal hydroclimate variations are not correlated with any of the simulations, and the simulations are not correlated among themselves either, which strongly suggests that the decadal variability is not linked to the external climate forcing. In addition, the superposed epoch analysis also does not identify a response of simulated precipitation to volcanic eruptions. Therefore, precipitation variability in this region over the past millennium seems to have been driven by internal climate processes. In the simulations, regional summer precipitation is positively and significantly correlated with sea-level-pressure (SLP) over the North Pacific and is negatively and significantly correlated with SLP in southwestern China at both interannual and decadal time scales. This agrees with the teleconnection patterns identified from meteorological reanalysis datasets, indicating that this dipole correlation pattern is robust. Therefore, the SLP difference between these two areas is used as an index to identify the atmosphere circulation pattern favorable to summer precipitation in the NFEASM. This SLP index shows spatial variable correlations with sea-surface-temperature (SST) in the North Pacific: there is a significant positive correlation in the northern North Pacific, while a significant negative correlation in the southern North Pacific. Although the underlying mechanisms for these correlations likely differ between two subareas, it appears that the atmosphere drives SST anomalies in the both subareas.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in to check access.

Fig. 1
Fig. 2
Fig. 3
Fig. 4
Fig. 5
Fig. 6
Fig. 7
Fig. 8
Fig. 9

References

  1. Anchukaitis KJ, Buckley BM, Cook ER, Cook BI, D’Arrigo RD, Ammann CM (2010) Influence of volcanic eruptions on the climate of the Asian monsoon region. Geophys Res Lett 37:L22703. https://doi.org/10.1029/2010GL044843

    Article  Google Scholar 

  2. Ault TR, Cole JE, George SS (2012) The amplitude of decadal to multidecadal variability in precipitation simulated by state-of-the-art climate models. Geophys Res Lett 39:L21705. https://doi.org/10.1029/2012GL053424

    Article  Google Scholar 

  3. Blake SAP, Lewis SC, LeGrande AN, Miller R (2018) Assessing the impact of large volcanic eruptions of the last millennium (850–1850 CE) on Australian rainfall regimes. Clim Past 14:811–824

    Article  Google Scholar 

  4. Chang C, Zhang Y, Li T (2000a) Interannual and interdecadal variations of the East Asian summer monsoon and tropical Pacific SSTs. Part I: roles of the subtropical ridge. J Clim 13:4310–4325

    Article  Google Scholar 

  5. Chang C-P, Yi L, Chen G, T-J (2000b) A numerical simulation of vortex development during the 1992 East Asian summer monsoon onset using the Navy’s Regional Model. Mon Weather Rev 128:1604–1631

    Article  Google Scholar 

  6. Chen Z, Yang G (2013) Analysis of drought hazards in North China: distribution and interpretation. Nat Hazards 65:279–294

    Article  Google Scholar 

  7. Cheng Q, Zhou T (2014) Multidecadal variability of North China aridity and its relationship to PDO during 1900–2010. J Clim 27:1210–1222

    Article  Google Scholar 

  8. Coats S, Smerdon JE, Seager R, Cook BI, González-Rouco (2013) Megadroughts in southwestern north America in ECHO-G millennium simulations and their comparison to proxy drought reconstructions. J Clim 26:7635–7649

    Article  Google Scholar 

  9. Coats S, Smerdon JE, Cook BI, Seager R (2015) Are simulated megadroughts in the north American southwest forced? J Clim 28:124–141

    Article  Google Scholar 

  10. Coats S, Smerdon JE, Cook BI, Seager R, Anchukaitis KJ (2016) Internal ocean-atmosphere variability drives megadroughts in Western North America. Geophys Res Lett 43(18):9886–9894

    Article  Google Scholar 

  11. Compo GP, Whitaker JS, Sardeshmukh PD, Matsui N, Allan RJ, Yin X, Gleason BE, Vose RS, Rutledge G, Bessemoulin P, Brönnimann S, Brunet M, Crouthamel RI, Grant AN, Groisman PY, Jones PD, Kruk M, Kruger AC, Marshall GJ, Maugeri M, Mok HY, Nordli Ø, Ross TF, Trigo RM, Wang XL, Woodruff SD, Worley SJ (2011) The twentieth century reanalysis project. Q J R Meteorol Soc 137:1–28

    Google Scholar 

  12. Cook ER (2004) Long-term aridity changes in the western United States. Science 306(5698):1015–1018

    Article  Google Scholar 

  13. Cook ER, Anchukaitis KJ, Buckley BM, D’Arrigo RD, Jacoby GC, Wright WE (2010) Asian monsoon failure and megadrought during the last millennium. Science 328:486–489

    Article  Google Scholar 

  14. Crowley TJ, Unterman MB (2012) Technical details concerning development of a 1200-yr proxy index for global volcanism. Earth Syst Sci Data Discus 5:1–28

    Article  Google Scholar 

  15. Dai A (2013) Increasing drought under global warming in observations and models. Nat Clim Change 3:52–58

    Article  Google Scholar 

  16. Deser C, Phillips A, Bourdette V, Teng H (2012) Uncertainty in climate change projections: the role of internal variability. Clim Dyn 38:527–546

    Article  Google Scholar 

  17. Ding Y, Chan JCL (2005) The East Asian summer monsoon: an overview. Meteorol Atmos Phys 89:117–142

    Article  Google Scholar 

  18. Dorigo W, de Jeu R, Chung D, Parinussa R, Liu Y, Wagner W, Fernández-Prieto D (2012) Evaluating global trends (1988–2010) in harmonized multi-satellite surface soil moisture. Geophys Res Lett. https://doi.org/10.1029/2012GL052988

    Article  Google Scholar 

  19. Esper J, Schneider L, Krusic PJ, Luterbacher J, Büntgen U, Timonen M, Sirocko F, Zorita E (2013) European summer temperature response to annually dated volcanic eruptions over the past nine centuries. Bull Volcanol 75(7):736

    Article  Google Scholar 

  20. Fernández-Donado JF, Raible C, Ammann CM, Barriopedro D, Garcia-Bustamante E, Jungclaus JH, Lorenz SJ, Luterbacher J, Phipps SJ, Servonnat J, Swingedouw D, Tett SFB, Wagner S, Yiou P, Zorita E (2013) Large-scale temperature response to external forcing in simulations and reconstructions of the last millennium. Clim Past 9(1):393–421

    Article  Google Scholar 

  21. Gao CC, Gao YJ (2018) Revisited Asian monsoon hydroclimate response to volcanic eruption. J Geophys Res Atmos 123:7883–7896

    Google Scholar 

  22. Gao C, Robock A, Ammann C (2008) Volcanic forcing of climate over the past 1500 years: an improved ice core-based index for climate models. J Geophys Res 113:D23111. https://doi.org/10.1029/2008JD010239

    Article  Google Scholar 

  23. Ge Q, Zheng J, Hao Z, Zhang P, Wang W (2005) Reconstruction of historical climate in China: high-resolution precipitation data from Qing Dynasty archives. Bull Amer Meteorol Soc 86(5):671–679

    Article  Google Scholar 

  24. Gent PR, Danabasoglu G, Donner LJ, Holland MM, Hunke EC, Jayne SR, Lawrence DM, Neale RB, Rasch PJ, Vertenstein M, Worley PH, Yang Z, Zhang M (2011) The community climate system model version 4. J Clim 24(19):4973–4991

    Article  Google Scholar 

  25. Gong D, Yang J, Kim S-J, Gao Y, Guo D, Zhou T, Hu M (2011) Spring Arctic Oscillation-East Asian summer monsoon connection through circulation changes over the western North Pacific. Clim Dyn 37:2199–2216

    Article  Google Scholar 

  26. Guo Q (1992) Teleconnection between the floods/droughts in North China and Indian Summer Monsoon rainfall. J Geogr Sci 47(5):394–402 (in Chinese)

    Google Scholar 

  27. Harris I, Jones PD, Osborn TJ, Lister DH (2014) Updated high-resolution grids of monthly climatic observations—the CRU TS3.10 Dataset. Int J Climatol 34:623–642

    Article  Google Scholar 

  28. He C, Zhou T, Lin A, Wu B, Gu B, Li C, Zheng B (2015) Enhanced or weakened Western North Pacific subtropical high under global warming. Sci Rep. https://doi.org/10.1038/srep16771

    Article  Google Scholar 

  29. Hegerl G, Luterbacher J, González-Rouco F, Tett SFB, Crowley T, Xoplaki E (2011) Influence of human and natural forcing on European seasonal temperature. Nat Geosci 4:99–103

    Article  Google Scholar 

  30. Hua T, Wang X, Zhang C, Lang L (2013) Temporal and spatial variations in the Palmer Drought Severity Index over the past four centuries in arid, semiarid, and semihumid East Asia. Chin Sci Bull 58(33):4143–4152

    Article  Google Scholar 

  31. Jungclaus JH, Fischer N, Haak H, Lohmann K, Marotzke J, Matei D, Mikolajewicz U, Notz D, von Storch JS (2013) Characteristics of the ocean simulations in the Max Planck Institute Ocean Model (MPIOM) the ocean component of the MPI-Earth system model. J Adv Model Earth Syst 5(2):422–446

    Article  Google Scholar 

  32. Kempes CP, Myers OB, Breshears DD, Ebersole JJ (2008) Comparing response of Pinus edulis tree-ring growth to five alternate moisture indices using historic meteorological data. J Arid Environ 72:350–357

    Article  Google Scholar 

  33. Kwon Y-O, Alexander MA, Bond NA, Frankignoul C, Nakamura H, Qiu B, Thompson L (2010) Role of the Gulf stream and Kuroshio-Oyashio system in large-scale atmosphere-ocean interaction: a review. J Clim 23:3249–3281

    Article  Google Scholar 

  34. Landrum L, Otto-Bliesner BL, Conley A, Lawrence PJ, Rosenbloom N, Teng H (2013) Last millennium climate and its variability in CCSM4. J Clim 26:1085–1111

    Article  Google Scholar 

  35. Li H, Dai A, Zhou T, Lu J (2010a) Responses of East Asian summer monsoon to historical SST and atmospheric forcing during 1950–2000. Clim Dyn 34:501–514

    Article  Google Scholar 

  36. Li J, Wu Z, Jiang Z, He J (2010b) Can global warming strengthen the East Asian summer monsoon? J Clim 23:6696–6705

    Article  Google Scholar 

  37. Liang E, Liu X, Yuan Y, Qin N, Fang X, Huang L, Zhu H, Wang L, Shao X (2006) The 1920s droughts recorded by tree rings and historical documents in the semiarid and arid areas of northern China. Clim Change 79:403–432

    Article  Google Scholar 

  38. Linderholm HW, Nicolle M, Francus P, Gajewski K, Helama S, Korhola A, Solomina O, Yu Z, Zhang P, D'Andrea WJ, Debret M, Divine DV, Gunnarson BE, Loader NJ, Massei N, Seftigen K, Thomas EK, Werner J, Andersson S, Berntsson A, Luoto TP, Nevalainen L, Saarni S, Väliranta M (2018) Arctic hydroclimate variability during the last 2000 years: current understanding and research challenges. Clim Past 14(4):473–514

    Article  Google Scholar 

  39. Liu J, Wang B, Cane MA, Yim SY, Lee JY (2013) Divergent global precipitation changes induced by natural versus anthropogenic forcing. Nature 493:656–659

    Article  Google Scholar 

  40. Luo Y, Zhang R, Qian W, Luo Z, Hu X (2011) Intercomparison of deep convection over the Tibetan Plteau-Asian monsoon region and subtropical North America in boreal summer usin CloudSat/CALIPSO data. J Clim 24:2164–2177

    Article  Google Scholar 

  41. Man W, Zhou T (2014) Response to the East Asian summer monsoon to large volcanic eruptions during the last millennium. Chin Sci Bull 59(31):4123–4129

    Article  Google Scholar 

  42. Man W, Zhou T, Jungclause JH (2014) Effects of large volcanic eruptions on global summer climate and East Asian monsoon changes during the last millennium: analysis of MPI-ESM simulations. J Clim 27:7394–7409

    Article  Google Scholar 

  43. Mann M, Fuentes J, Rutherford S (2012) Underestimation of volcanic cooling in tree-ring-based reconstructions of hemispheric temperature. Nat Geosci 5:202–205

    Article  Google Scholar 

  44. Meehl GA, Arblaster JM, Caron JM, Annamalai H, Jochum M, Chakraborty A, Murtugudde AR (2012) Monnson regimes and processes in CCSM4. Part I: the Asian-Australian Monsoon. J Clim 25:2583–2608

    Article  Google Scholar 

  45. Mohtadi M, Prange M, Steinke S (2016) Palaeoclimate insights into forcing and response of monsoon rainfall. Nature 533:191–199

    Article  Google Scholar 

  46. Nonaka M, Nakamura H, Tanimoto Y, Kagimoto T (2008) Interannual-to decadal variability in the Oyashio and its influence on temperature in subarctic frontal zone: an eddy-resolving OGCM simulation. J Clim 21:6283–6303

    Article  Google Scholar 

  47. Otto-Bliesner B, Brady EC, Fasullo J, Jahn A, Landrum L, Stevenson S, Rosenbloom N, Mai A, Strand G (2016) Climate variability and change since 850 CE. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 735–754

  48. PAGES Hydro2k Consortium (2017) Comparing proxy and model estimates of hydroclimate variability and change over the Common Era. Clim Past 13:1851–1900

    Article  Google Scholar 

  49. Panofsky HA, Brier GW (1958) Some applications of statistics to meteorology. Univ. Park, Pennsylvania

    Google Scholar 

  50. Peng Y (2018) Simulated interannual teleconnection between the summer North Atlantic Oscillation and summer precipitation in eastern China during the last millennium. Geophys Res Lett 45:7741–7747

    Article  Google Scholar 

  51. Poli P, Hersbach H, Dee DP (2016) ERA-20C: an atmospheric reanalysis of the twentieth century. J Clim 29:4083–4097

    Article  Google Scholar 

  52. Pongratz J, Reick CH, Raddatz T, Claussen M (2008) A reconstruction of global agricultural areas and land cover for the last millennium. Glob Biogeochem Cy 22:GB3018. https://doi.org/10.1029/2007GB003153

    Article  Google Scholar 

  53. Qian C, Zhou T (2014) Multidecadal variability of North China aridity and its relationship to PDO during 1900–2010. J Clim 27:1210–1222

    Article  Google Scholar 

  54. Qian WH, Shan XL, Chen D, Zhu C, Zhu Y (2012) Droughts near the northern fringe of the East Asian summer monsoon in China during 1470–2003. Clim Change 110:373–383

    Article  Google Scholar 

  55. Schmidt GA, Jungclaus JH, Ammann CM, Bard E, Braconnot P, Crowley TJ, Delaygue G, Joos F, Krivova NA, Muscheler R, Otto-Bliesner BL, Pongratz J, Shindell DT, Solanki SK, Steinhilber F, Vieira LEA (2011) Climate forcing reconstructions for use in PMIP simulations of the last millennium (v.1.0). Geosci Model Dev 4:33–45. https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-4-33-2011

    Article  Google Scholar 

  56. Seager R, Kushnir Y, Naik NH, Cane MA, Miller J (2001) Wind-driven shifts in the latitude of the Kuroshio-Oyashio extension and generation of SST anomalies on decadal timescales. J Clim 14:4249–4265

    Article  Google Scholar 

  57. Shi F, Zhao S, Guo Z, Goosse H, Yin Q (2017) Multi-proxy reconstructions of May–September precipitation field in China over the past 500 years. Clim Past 13(12):1919–1938

    Article  Google Scholar 

  58. Sigl M, Winstrup M, McConnel JR, Welten KC, Plunkett G, Ludlow F, Büntgen U, Caffee M, Chellman N, Dahl-Jensen D, Fischer H, Kipfstuhl S, Kostick C, Maselli OJ, Mekhaldi F, Mulvaney R, Muscheler R, Pasteris DR, Pilcher JR, Salzer M, Schüpch M, Steffensen JP, Vinther BM, Woodruff TE (2015) Timing and climate forcing of volcanic eruptions for the past 2,500 years. Nature. https://doi.org/10.1038/nature14565

    Article  Google Scholar 

  59. Song F, Zhou T, Qian Y (2014) Responses of East Asian summer monsoon to natural and anthropogenic forcings in the 17 latest CMIP5 models. Geophys Res Lett 41:596–603

    Article  Google Scholar 

  60. Stephens GL, L’Ecuyer T, Forbes R, Gettelman A, Golaz J-C, Bodas-Salcedo A, Suzuki K, Gabriel P, Haynes J (2010) Dreary state of precipitation in global models. J Geophys Res Atmos 115:D24211. https://doi.org/10.1029/2010jd014532

    Article  Google Scholar 

  61. Stevens B, Giorgetta M, Esch M, Mauritsen T, Crueger T, Rast S, Salzmann M, Schmidt H, Bader J, Block K, Brokopf R, Fast I, Kinne S, Kornblueh L, Lohmann U, Pincus R, Reichler T, Roeck E (2013) Atmospheric component of the MPI-M Earth system model: ECHAM6. J Adv Model Earth Syst 5(2):146–172

    Article  Google Scholar 

  62. Stevenson S, Otto-Bliesner B, Fasullo J, Brady E (2016) “El Niño like” hydroclimate responses to last millennium volcanic eruptions. J Clim 29:2907–2921

    Article  Google Scholar 

  63. Taylor KE, Stouffer RJ, Meehl GA (2012) An overview of CMIP5 and the experiment design. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 93:485–498

    Article  Google Scholar 

  64. Tian F, Dong B, Robson J, Sutton R (2018) Forced decadal changes in the East Asian summer monsoon: the role of greenhouse gases and anthropogenic aerosols. Clim Dyn. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-018-4105-7

    Article  Google Scholar 

  65. Tierney JE, Smerdon JE, Anchukaitis KJ, Seager R (2013) Multidecadal variability in East African hydroclimate controlled by the Indian Ocean. Nature 493:389–392

    Article  Google Scholar 

  66. Trenberth KE (1984) Some effects of finite sample size and persistence on meteorological statitics. Part II: potential predictability. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 112:2369–2379

    Google Scholar 

  67. Wahl E, Diaz H, Vose R, Gross W (2017) Multicentury evaluation of recovery from strong precipitation deficits in Caliifornia. J Clim 30:6053–6063

    Article  Google Scholar 

  68. Wang A, Lettenmaier DP, Sheffield J (2011) Soil moisture drought in China, 1950–2006. J Clim 24:3257–3271

    Article  Google Scholar 

  69. Wang B, Xiang B, Lee J-Y (2013) Subtropical High predictability establishes a promising way for monsoon and tropical storm predictions. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 110(8):2718–2722

    Article  Google Scholar 

  70. Wang Z, Duan A, Wu G (2014) Time-lagged impact of spring sensible heat over the Tibetan Plateau on the summer rainfall anomaly in East China: case studies using the WRF model. Clim Dyn 42(11):2885–2898

    Article  Google Scholar 

  71. Wang L, Chen W, Huang G, Zeng G (2016) Changes of the transitional climate zone in East Asia: past and future. Clim Dyn. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-016-3400-4

    Article  Google Scholar 

  72. Wang B, LI J, Cane MA, Liu J, Webster PJ, Xiang B, Kim H-M, Cao J, Ha K-J (2018) Toward predicting changes in the land monsoon rainfall a decade in advance. J Clim 31:2699–2714

    Article  Google Scholar 

  73. Wegmann M, Brönnimann S, Bhend J, Franke J, Folin D, Wild M, Luterbacher J (2014) Volcanic influence on European summer precipitation through monsoons: possible cause for ‘Years without summer’. J Clim 27:3683–3691

    Article  Google Scholar 

  74. Wu R, Wang B (2002) A contrast of the East Asian summer monsoon-ENSO relationship between 1962–77 and 1978–93. J Clim 15:3266–3279

    Article  Google Scholar 

  75. Wu B, Zhou T, Li T (2017a) Atmospheric dynamic and thermodynamic processes driving the western North Pacific anomalous anticyclone during El Nino. Part I: maintenance mechanism. J Clim 30:9621–9635

    Article  Google Scholar 

  76. Wu B, Zhou T, Li T (2017b) Atmospheric dynamic and thermodynamic processes driving the western North Pacific anomalous anticyclone during El Nino. Part II: formation processes. J Clim 30:9637–9650

    Article  Google Scholar 

  77. Xiao L, Fang X, Zheng J, Zhao W (2015) Famine, migration and war: comparison of climate change impacts and social responses in North China between the late Ming and late Qing Dynasties. Holocene 25(6):900–910

    Article  Google Scholar 

  78. Xu GC (1997) Climate change in arid and semiarid regions of China. China Meteorological Press, Beijing (in Chinese)

    Google Scholar 

  79. Xu M, Chang C-P, Fu C, Qi Y, Robock A, Robinson D, Zhang H-M (2006) Steady decline of East Asian monsoon winds, 1969–2000: evidence from direct ground measurements of wind speed. J Geophys Res 111:D24111. https://doi.org/10.1029/2006JD007337

    Article  Google Scholar 

  80. Xu K, Yang D, Yang H, Li Z, Qin Y, Shen Y (2014) Spatio-temporal variation of drought in China during 1961–2012: a climatic perspective. J Hydrol 526:253–264

    Article  Google Scholar 

  81. Yang B, Kang S, Ljungqvist FC, He M, Zhao Y, Qin C (2014) Drought variability at the northern fringe of the Asian summer monsoon region over the past millennia. Clim Dyn 43:845–859

    Article  Google Scholar 

  82. Yu R, Wang B, Zhou T (2004) Tropospheric cooling and summer monsoon weakening trend over East Asia. Geophys Res Lett. https://doi.org/10.1029/2004GL021270

    Article  Google Scholar 

  83. Yu L, Furevik T, Otterå OH, Gao Y (2015) Modulation of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation on the summer precipitation over the East China: a comparison of observations to 600-years control run of Bergen Climate Model. Clim Dyn 44(1–2):475–494

    Article  Google Scholar 

  84. Yu E, King MP, Soboloski S, Otterå OH, Gao Y (2018) Asian droughts in the last millennium:a search for robust impacts of Pacific Ocean surface temperature variabilities. Clim Dyn 50(11–12):4671–4689

    Article  Google Scholar 

  85. Zambri B, Robock A (2016) Winter warming and summer monsoon reduction after volcanic eruptions in Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) simulations. Geophys Res Lett 43(20):10920–10928

    Article  Google Scholar 

  86. Zanchettin D, Rubino A, Matei D, Bothe O, Jungclaus JH (2013) Multidecadal-to-centennial SST variability in the MPI-ESM simulation ensemble for the last millennium. Clim Dyn 40:1301–1318

    Article  Google Scholar 

  87. Zhang P, Cheng H, Edwards RL, Chen F, Wang Y, Yang X, Liu J, Tan M, Wang X, Liu J, An C, Dai Z, Zhou J, Zhang D, Jia J, Jin L, Johnson KR (2008) A test of climate, sun, and culture relationships from an 1810-year Chinese cave record. Science 322(5903):940–942

    Article  Google Scholar 

  88. Zhang D, Pei Q, Lee HF, Zhang J, Chang CQ, Li B, Li J, Zhang X (2015) The pulse of imperial China: a quantitative analysis of long-term geopolitical and climatic cycles. Global Ecol Biogeogr 24:87–96

    Article  Google Scholar 

  89. Zhang Y, Wu M, Li D, Liu Y, Li S (2017) Spatiotemporal decompositions of summer drought in china and its teleconnection with global sea surface temperatures during 1901–2012. J Clim 30:6391–6412. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0405

    Article  Google Scholar 

  90. Zheng J, Xiao L, Fang X, Hao Z, Ge Q, Li B (2014) How climate change impacted the collapse of Ming Dynasty. Clim Change 127(2):169–182

    Article  Google Scholar 

  91. Zhou T, Yu R (2005) Atmospheric water vapor transport associated with typical anomalous summer rainfall patterns in China. J Geophys Res Atmos. https://doi.org/10.1029/2004JD005413

    Article  Google Scholar 

  92. Zhou T, Gong D, Li J, Li B (2009) Detecting and understanding the multi-decadal variability of the East Asian Summer Monson—recent progress and state of affairs. Meteorol Z 18(4):455–467

    Article  Google Scholar 

  93. Zhu X, Stan C (2015) Projection of summer precipitation over the southeastern United States in the superparameterized CCSM4. J Clim 28:8052–8066

    Article  Google Scholar 

  94. Zhu Y, Wang H, Zhou W, Ma J (2011) Recent changes in the summer precipitation pattern in East China and the background circulation. Clim Dyn 36(7):1463–1473

    Article  Google Scholar 

  95. Zhuo Z, Gao C, Pan Y (2014) Proxy evidence for China’s monsoon precipitation response to volcanic aerosols over the past seven centuries. J Geophys Res Atmos 119(11):6638–6652

    Article  Google Scholar 

Download references

Acknowledgements

This work was supported by the National Science Foundation of China (no. 41501011 and 41771012), the Key Frontier Program of Chinese Academy of Sciences (no. QYZDJ-SSW-DQC043), and the Hundred-Talent Program of Shaanxi Province. Special thanks are given to the China Scholarship Council (CSC) for its financial support of overseas study.

Author information

Affiliations

Authors

Corresponding authors

Correspondence to Xunming Wang or Ninglian Wang.

Additional information

Publisher’s Note

Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.

Electronic supplementary material

Below is the link to the electronic supplementary material.

Supplementary material 1 (DOCX 5898 KB)

Rights and permissions

Reprints and Permissions

About this article

Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this article

Hua, T., Zorita, E., Wang, X. et al. Precipitation variability in the north fringe of East Asian Summer Monsoon during the past millennium and its possible driving factors. Clim Dyn 53, 2587–2602 (2019). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-019-04643-1

Download citation

Keywords

  • East Asian summer monsoon
  • Summer precipitation variability
  • Atmospheric circulation
  • Driving factors