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Recent intensified impact of December Arctic Oscillation on subsequent January temperature in Eurasia and North Africa

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Abstract

This study reveals an intensified influence of December Arctic Oscillation (AO) on the subsequent January surface air temperature (SAT) over Eurasia and North Africa in recent decades. The connection is statistically insignificant during 1957/58–1979/80 (P1), which becomes statistically significant during 1989/90–2011/12 (P2). The possible causes are further investigated. Associated with positive December AO during P2, significant anomalous anticyclone emerges over the central North Atlantic, which is accompanied with significant westerly and easterly anomalies along 45°−65°N and 20°−40°N, respectively. This favors the significant influence of December AO on the subsequent January SAT and atmospheric circulation over Eurasia and North Africa via triggering the North Atlantic tripole sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly that persists into the subsequent January. By contrast, the December AO-related anomalous anticyclone during P1 is weak and is characterized by two separate centers located in the eastern and western North Atlantic. Correspondingly, the westerly and easterly anomalies over the North Atlantic Ocean are weak and the-related tripole SST anomaly is not well formed, unfavorable for the persistent impact of the December AO into the subsequent January. Further analyses indicate that the different anomalous anticyclone associated with the December AO over the North Atlantic may be induced by the strengthened synoptic-scale eddy feedbacks over the North Atlantic, which may be related to the interdecadal intensification of the storm track activity. Additionally, the planetary stationary wave related to the December AO propagates from surface into upper stratosphere at mid-latitudes during P2, which further propagates downward to the troposphere and causes anomalous atmospheric circulation in the subsequent January.

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Acknowledgements

This research was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grants no. 41505073, 41605059, and 41375083), Research Council of Norway supported project SNOWGLACE (Grant no. 244166/E10), and the Young Talent Support Program of the China Association for Science and Technology (Grant no. 2016QNRC001). The NCEP/NCAR reanalysis datasets can be obtained from ftp://ftp.cdc.noaa.gov/Datasets/ncep.reanalysis.derived/. The HadISLP2r data can be obtained from http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadslp2. CRU_TS_3.21 can be obtained from https://crudata.uea.ac.uk/cru/data/hrg/. JRA-55 reanalysis can be obtained from http://jra.kishou.go.jp/JRA-55/index_en.html. The NOAA SST can be obtained from http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/gridded.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Geophysical Institute, University of Bergen and Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, 5007, Bergen, Norway

    Shengping He

  2. Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters/Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster, Ministry of Education, Nanjing University for Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, 210044, China

    Huijun Wang & Fei Li

  3. Climate Change Research Center, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100029, China

    Huijun Wang

  4. Nansen-Zhu International Research Center, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100029, China

    Huijun Wang & Yongqi Gao

  5. Nansen Environmental and Remote Sensing Center/Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, 5006, Bergen, Norway

    Yongqi Gao

  6. NILU-Norwegian Institute for Air Research, 2007, Kjeller, Norway

    Fei Li

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  1. Shengping He
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Correspondence to Shengping He.

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He, S., Wang, H., Gao, Y. et al. Recent intensified impact of December Arctic Oscillation on subsequent January temperature in Eurasia and North Africa. Clim Dyn 52, 1077–1094 (2019). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-018-4182-7

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