Influence of the North Pacific Victoria mode on western North Pacific tropical cyclone genesis

  • Xiushu Pu
  • Quanliang Chen
  • Quanjia Zhong
  • Ruiqiang Ding
  • Ting Liu


The Victoria mode (VM) is defined as the second empirical orthogonal function mode (EOF2) of sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) in the North Pacific north of 20°N. This study examines the influence of the spring VM on the tropical cyclone (TC) genesis over the western North Pacific (WNP) during summer (May–August) for the period 1960–2016. Our analysis demonstrates that the spring VM exhibits a good relationship with the following summer tropical cyclone frequency (TCF) over the WNP, characterized by positive correlations over the eastern WNP (EWNP) and negative correlations over the western WNP (WWNP). During strongly positive VM cases, the SSTAs in the North Pacific (5°–20°N) associated with the spring VM persist until summer via the wind–evaporation–SST (WES) feedback. The low-level convergence (divergence) caused by the VM-related SSTAs, combined with a strengthened (weakened) WNP monsoon trough as well as a weakened (strengthened) West Pacific Subtropical High (WPSH), result in the enhanced (suppressed) TC genesis over the EWNP (WWNP). It appears that the spring VM may be a useful predictor for the WNP TCs in summer.


Victoria mode Tropical cyclone Western North Pacific 



The authors thank Dr. Fei Zheng for her comments which helped to improve the manuscript. This research was jointly supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China for Excellent Young Scholars (41522502), the National Natural Science Foundation of China (41475037), and the National Programme on Global Change and Air–Sea Interaction (GASI-IPOVAI-06).


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Copyright information

© Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature 2018

Authors and Affiliations

  1. 1.Plateau Atmosphere and Environment Key Laboratory of Sichuan ProvinceChengdu University of Information TechnologyChengduChina
  2. 2.State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics (LASG), Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijingChina
  3. 3.Centre for Communication and OutreachChina Meteorological Administration (CMA)BeijingChina
  4. 4.College of Earth ScienceUniversity of Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijingChina
  5. 5.State Key Laboratory of Satellite Ocean Environment DynamicsSecond Institute of OceanographyHangzhouChina

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