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Table 2 Probability ratios (p\(_{1}\)/p\(_{0}\)) for summer 2012 from different approaches

From: Multiple perspectives on the attribution of the extreme European summer of 2012 to climate change

Method Type North, precipitation South, precipitation South, temperature
Return time (2012 vs. 1960) Observational 1.21 [0.41:2.90] 0.98 [0.61:1.61] 28.45 [3.09:1688]
Return time (2012 vs. 1901) Observational 1.29 [0.32:4.38] 0.97 [0.52:1.88] 90.06 [4.43:\(5.6\times 10^{6}\)]
Analogue Observational 0.88 [0:2.88]* N/A N/A
HadGEM3-A (ALL vs. NAT) Conditional 0.95 [0.57:1.97] 1.77 [0.61:7.63] 2.99 [1.35:9.67]
CMIP5 (PRES2 vs. NAT) Unconditional 0.69 [0.47:1.15] 8.33 [2.91:37.73] 7.93 [2.60:47.81]
CMIP5 (PRES2 vs. PI) Unconditional 1.05 [0.70:1.98] 1.90 [0.81:8.48] 2.79 [1.02:14.61]
CMIP5 (PRES1 vs. PI) Unconditional 1.78 [1.28:3.07] 2.29 [1.01:7.49] 20.49 [9.35:77.12]
  1. Numbers in square brackets are the 95% confidence interval
  2. *Note that the analogue analysis was performed for 9 UK regions. The values shown here should only be used for an approximate comparison: they are the average of the best estimate across the 9 regions, and the range spanned by the 9 individual 95% confidence intervals