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Simulating seasonal tropical cyclone intensities at landfall along the South China coast

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Abstract

A numerical method is developed using a regional climate model (RegCM3) and the Weather Forecast and Research (WRF) model to predict seasonal tropical cyclone (TC) intensities at landfall for the South China region. In designing the model system, three sensitivity tests have been performed to identify the optimal choice of the RegCM3 model domain, WRF horizontal resolution and WRF physics packages. Driven from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction Climate Forecast System Reanalysis dataset, the model system can produce a reasonable distribution of TC intensities at landfall on a seasonal scale. Analyses of the model output suggest that the strength and extent of the subtropical ridge in the East China Sea are crucial to simulating TC landfalls in the Guangdong and Hainan provinces. This study demonstrates the potential for predicting TC intensities at landfall on a seasonal basis as well as projecting future climate changes using numerical models.

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Acknowledgements

We would like to thank Dr. Phil Klotzbach and another anonymous reviewer for their thoughtful comments on this manuscript. This paper is part of the PhD project of the first author. It is supported by a Research Studentship from the City University of Hong Kong and Research Grants Council General Research Fund CityU 100113.

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  1. School of Energy and Environment, City University of Hong Kong, 83 Tat Chee Avenue, Kowloon Tong, Hong Kong

    Charlie C. F. Lok & Johnny C. L. Chan

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  1. Charlie C. F. Lok
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Correspondence to Charlie C. F. Lok.

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Lok, C.C.F., Chan, J.C.L. Simulating seasonal tropical cyclone intensities at landfall along the South China coast. Clim Dyn 50, 2661–2672 (2018). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-017-3762-2

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