Climate Dynamics

, Volume 42, Issue 9–10, pp 2783–2799 | Cite as

Climate mean, variability and dominant patterns of the Northern Hemisphere wintertime mean atmospheric circulation in the NCEP CFSv2

  • Peitao PengEmail author
  • Arun Kumar
  • Bhaskar Jha
Part of the following topical collections:
  1. Topical Collection on Climate Forecast System Version 2 (CFSv2)


In this study, the climate mean, variability, and dominant patterns of the Northern Hemisphere wintertime mean 200 hPa geopotential height (Z200) in a CMIP and a set of AMIP simulations from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Climate Forecast System Version 2 (CFSv2) are analyzed and compared with the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis. For the climate mean, it is found that a component of the bias in stationary waves characterized with wave trains emanating from the tropics into both the hemispheres can be attributed to the precipitation deficit over the Maritime continent. The lack of latent heating associated with the precipitation deficit may have served as the forcing of the wave trains. For the variability of the seasonal mean, both the CMIP and AMIP successfully simulated the geographical locations of the major centers of action, but the simulated intensity was generally weaker than that in the reanalysis, particularly for the center over the Davis Strait-southern Greenland area. It is also noted that the simulated action center over Aleutian Islands was southeastward shifted to some extent. The shift was likely caused by the eastward extension of the Pacific jet. Differences also existed between the CMIP and the AMIP simulations, with the center of actions over the Aleutian Islands stronger in the AMIP and the center over the Davis Strait-southern Greenland area stronger in the CMIP simulation. In the mode analysis, the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) teleconnection pattern in each dataset was first removed from the data, and a rotated empirical orthogonal function (REOF) analysis was then applied to the residual. The purpose of this separation was to avoid possible mixing between the ENSO mode and those generated by the atmospheric internal dynamics. It was found that the simulated ENSO teleconnection patterns from both model runs well resembled that from the reanalysis, except for a small eastward shift. Based on the REOF modes of the residual data, six dominant modes of the reanalysis data had counterparts in each model simulation, though with different rankings in explained variance and some distortions in spatial structure. By evaluating the temporal coherency of the REOF modes between the reanalysis and the AMIP, it was found that the time series associated with the equatorially displaced North Atlantic Oscillation in the two datasets were significantly correlated, suggesting a potential predictability for this mode.


Model bias Climate variability Dominant modes of circulation Predictability 



We would like to thank Drs. Mingyue Chen, Hui Wang for CPC internal reviewing and Z.-Z. Hu and Wanqiu Wang for helpful discussions. We would very appreciate the comments and suggestions from Prof. Edwin Schneider and two anonymous reviewers.


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Copyright information

© Springer-Verlag (outside the USA) 2014

Authors and Affiliations

  1. 1.Climate Prediction Center, NCWCPNECP/NOAACollege ParkUSA
  2. 2.INNOVIM, LLCGreenbeltUSA

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