Advertisement

Climate Dynamics

, Volume 41, Issue 7–8, pp 2199–2212 | Cite as

Variability of the Indian Ocean SST and its possible impact on summer western North Pacific anticyclone in the NCEP Climate Forecast System

  • Xingwen Jiang
  • Song YangEmail author
  • Jianping Li
  • Yueqing Li
  • Haoran Hu
  • Yi Lian
Article
Part of the following topical collections:
  1. Topical Collection on Climate Forecast System Version 2 (CFSv2)

Abstract

The NCEP Climate Forecast System version 2 (CFSv2) provides important source of information about the seasonal prediction of climate over the Indo-Pacific oceans. In this study, the authors provide a comprehensive assessment of the prediction of sea surface temperature (SST) in the tropical Indian Ocean (IO). They also investigate the impact of tropical IO SST on the summer anomalous anticyclonic circulation over the western North Pacific (WNPAC), focusing on the relative contributions of local SST and remote forcing of tropical IO SST to WNPAC variations. The CFSv2 captures the two most dominant modes of summer tropical IO SST: the IO basin warming (IOBW) mode and the IO dipole (IOD) mode, as well as their relationship with El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). However, it produces a cold SST bias in IO, which may be attributed to deeper-than-observed mixed layer and smaller-than-observed total downward heat flux in the tropical IO. It also overestimates the correlations of ENSO with IOBW and IOD, but underestimates the magnitude of IOD and summer IOBW. The CFSv2 captures the climate anomalies related to IOBW but not those related to IOD. It depicts the impact of summer IOBW on WNPAC via the equatorial Kelvin wave, which contributes to the maintenance of WNPAC in July and August. The WNPAC in June is mostly forced by local cold SST, which is better predicted by the CFSv2 compared to July and August. The mechanism for WNPAC maintenance may vary with lead time in the CFSv2.

Keywords

Indian Ocean Anticyclonic circulation over the western North Pacific NCEP Climate Forecast System 

Notes

Acknowledgments

The authors thank the two anonymous reviewers for their constructive comments, which improve the overall quality of the paper. This study was jointly supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant 41105061), the National Basic Research Program of China (Grant 2012CB417202), and the Basic Research and Operation Program of the Institute of Plateau Meteorology, CMA (Grant BROP201215, BROP201318), and the Sun Yat-sen University “985 Project” Phase 3. Xingwen Jiang, who was partially supported by US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and China Meteorological Administration Bilateral Program, thanks NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center for hosting his visit while this study was conducted.

References

  1. Ashok K, Guan Z, Yamagata T (2001) Impact of the Indian Ocean dipole on the relationship between the Indian monsoon rainfall and ENSO. Geophys Res Lett 28:4499–4502. doi: 10.1029/2001GL013294 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  2. Behera SK, Luo JJ, Masson S et al (2005) Paramount Impact of the Indian Ocean Dipole on the East African short rains: a CGCM study. J Clim 18:4514–4530CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  3. Chang CP, Zhang YS, Li T (2000) Interannual and interdecadal variations of the East Asian summer monsoon and tropical Pacific SSTs. Part I: roles of the subtropical ridge. J Clim 13:4310–4325CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  4. Chowdary JS, Xie SP, Lee JY, Kosaka Y, Wang B (2010) Predictability of summer northwest Pacific climate in 11 coupled model hindcasts: local and remote forcing. J Geophys Res 115:D22121. doi: 10.1029/2010JD014595 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  5. Chowdary JS, Xie SP, Luo JJ et al (2011) Predictability of Northwest Pacific climate during summer and the role of the tropical Indian Ocean. Clim Dyn 36:607–621. doi: 10.1007/s00382-009-0686-5 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  6. Chowdary JS, Chaudhari HS, Gnanaseelan C, Parekh A, Suryachandra Rao A, Sreenivas P, Pokharel S, Singh P (2013) Summer monsoon circulation and precipitation over the tropical Indian Ocean during ENSO in the NCEP climate forecast system. Clim Dyn. doi: 10.1007/s00382-013-1826-5
  7. Ding RQ, Ha K-J, Li JP (2010) Interdecadal shift in the relationship between the East Asian summer monsoon and the tropical Indian Ocean. Clim Dyn 34:1059–1071CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  8. Fasullo J, Webster PJ (2002) Hydrological signatures relating the Asian summer monsoon and ENSO. J Clim 15:3082–3095CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  9. Fischer AS, Terray P, Guilyardi E, Gualdi S, Delecluse P (2005) Two independent triggers for the Indian Ocean dipole/zonal mode in a coupled GCM. J Clim 18:3428–3449CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  10. Gill AE (1980) Some simple solutions for heat-induced tropical circulation. Q J R Meteorol Soc 106:447–462. doi: 10.1002/qj.49710644905 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  11. Huang G, Hu K, Xie SP (2010) Strengthening of tropical Indian Ocean teleconnection to the Northwest Pacific since the mid-1970s: an atmospheric GCM study. J Clim 23:5294–5304CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  12. Jiang XW, Li JP (2011) Influence of the annual cycle of sea surface temperature on the monsoon onset. J Geophys Res 116:D10105. doi: 10.1029/2010JD015236 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  13. Jiang XW, Yang S, Li Y, Kumar A, Liu X, Zuo Z, Jha B (2013a) Seasonal-to-interannual prediction of the Asian summer monsoon in the NCEP Climate Forecast System Version 2. J Clim 26:3708–3727CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  14. Jiang XW, Yang S, Li Y, Kumar A, Wang W, Gao Z (2013b) Dynamical prediction of the East Asian winter monsoon by the NCEP climate forecast system. J Geophys Res 118:1312–1328. doi: 10.1002/jgrd.50193 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  15. Kosaka K, Xie SP, Lau NC, Vecchi GA (2013) Origin of seasonal predictability for summer climate over the Northwestern Pacific. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 110:7574–7579CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  16. Kripalani RH, Oh JH, Chaudhari HS (2010) Delayed influence of the Indian Ocean Dipole mode on the East Asia–West Pacific monsoon: possible mechanism. Int J Climatol 30:197–209. doi: 10.1002/joc.1890 Google Scholar
  17. Kug J-S, Kang I-S (2006) Interactive feedback between ENSO and the Indian Ocean. J Clim 19:1784–1801CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  18. Lau NG, Wang B (2006) Interaction between the Asian Monsoon and El Nino/Southern Oscillation. The Asian Monsoon, Wang B (ed), Praxis, pp 479–512Google Scholar
  19. Li JP, Ding RQ (2012) Temporal–spatial distribution of the predictability limit of monthly sea surface temperature in the global oceans. Int J Climatol. doi: 10.1002/joc.3562 Google Scholar
  20. Li T, Wang B (2005) A review on the western North Pacific monsoon: synoptic-to-interannual variabilities. Terr Atmos Ocean Sci 16:285–314Google Scholar
  21. Li T, Wang B, Chang CP, Zhang Y (2003) A theory for the Indian Ocean dipole-zonal mode. J Atmos Sci 60:2119–2135CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  22. Li JP, Wu ZW, Jiang ZH, He JH (2010) Can global warming strengthen the East Asian summer monsoon? J Clim 23:6696–6705CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  23. Matsuno T (1966) Quasi-geostrophic motions in the equatorial area. J Meteorol Soc Jpn 44:25–43Google Scholar
  24. Nitta T (1987) Convective activities in the tropical western Pacific and their impact on the Northern Hemisphere summer circulation. J Meteorol Soc Jpn 65:373–390Google Scholar
  25. Pokhrel S, Chaudhari H, Saha S et al (2012) ENSO, IOD and Indian summer monsoon in NCEP climate forecast system. Clim Dyn 39:2143–2165CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  26. Qu X, Huang G (2012) Impacts of tropical Indian Ocean SST on the meridional displacement of East Asian jet in boreal summer. Int J Climatol 32(13):2073–2080CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  27. Reynolds RW, Smith TM, Liu C et al (2007) Daily high-resolution blended analyses for sea surface temperature. J Clim 20:5473–5496CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  28. Saha S et al (2006) The NCEP climate forecast system. J Clim 19:3483–3517CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  29. Saha S et al (2010) The NCEP climate forecast system reanalysis. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 91:1015–1057CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  30. Saji NH, Yamagata T (2003) Possible impacts of Indian Ocean dipole mode events on global climate. Clim Res 25(2):151–169CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  31. Saji NH, Goswami BN, Vinayachandran PN, Yamagata T (1999) A dipole mode in the tropical Indian Ocean. Nature 401:360–363Google Scholar
  32. Sampe T, Xie SP (2010) Large-scale dynamics of the Meiyu-Baiu rainband: environmental forcing by the westerly jet. J Clim 23:113–134CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  33. Shi L, Hendon H, Alves O et al (2012) How predictable is the Indian Ocean dipole? Mon Weather Rev 140:3867–3884CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  34. Shukla J, Paolina DA (1983) The southern oscillation and long range forecasting of the summer monsoon rainfall over India. Mon Weather Rev 111:1830–1837CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  35. Wang B, Wu R, Fu X (2000) Pacific-East Asia teleconnection: how does ENSO affect East Asian climate? J Clim 13:1517–1536CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  36. Wang B, Wu R, Li T (2003) Atmosphere-Warm Ocean interaction and its impact on Asian-Australian Monsoon variation. J Clim 16:1195–1211CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  37. Wang B, Ding QH, Fu XH, Kang IS, Jin K, Shukla J, Doblas-Reyes F (2005) Fundamental challenge in simulation and prediction of summer monsoon rainfall. Geophys Res Lett 32:L15711CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  38. Wang W, Xie P, Yoo SH, Xue Y, Kumar A, Wu X (2010) An assessment of the surface climate in the NCEP climate forecast system reanalysis. Clim Dyn 37:1601–1620CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  39. Wang B, Xiang B, Lee JY (2013) Subtropical High predictability establishes a promising way for monsoon and tropical storm predictions. Proc Natl Acad Sci 110:2718–2722CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  40. Webster PJ, Magana VO, Palmer TN, Shukla J, Tomas RA, Yanai M, Yasunari T (1998) Monsoons: processes, predictability, and the prospects for prediction. J Geophys Res 103:14451–14510CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  41. Webster PJ, Moore A, Loschnigg J, Leban M (1999) Coupled ocean–atmosphere dynamics in the Indian Ocean during 1997–98. Nature 40:356–360CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  42. Wu R, Kirtman BP (2004a) Impacts of Indian Ocean on the Indian monsoon-ENSO relationship. J Clim 17:3037–3054CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  43. Wu R, Kirtman BP (2004b) Understanding the impacts of the Indian Ocean on ENSO variability in a coupled GCM. J Clim 17:4019–4031CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  44. Wu Z, Wang B, Li J, Jin F (2009) An empirical seasonal prediction model of the East Asian summer monsoon using ENSO and NAO. J Geophys Res 114:D18120. doi: 10.1029/2009JD011733 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  45. Wu B, Li T, Zhou T (2010) Relative contributions of the Indian Ocean and local SST anomalies to the maintenance of the western North Pacific anomalous anticyclone during El Nino decaying summer. J Clim 23:2974–2986CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  46. Wu Z, Li J, Jiang Z, Ma T (2012a) Modulation of the Tibetan Plateau snow cover on the ENSO teleconnections: from the East Asian summer monsoon perspective. J Clim 25:2481–2489CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  47. Wu Z, Jiang Z, Li J, Zhong S, Wang L (2012b) Possible association of the western Tibetan Plateau snow cover with the decadal to interdecadal variations of northern China heatwave frequency. Clim Dyn 39:2393–2402. doi: 10.1007/s00382-012-1439-4 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  48. Xie P, Arkin PA (1997) Global precipitation: a 17-year monthly analysis based on gauge observations, satellite estimates, and numerical model outputs. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 78:2539–2558CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  49. Xie SP, Hu K, Hafner J, Tokinaga H, Du Y, Huang G, Sampe T (2009) Indian Ocean capacitor effect on Indo-western Pacific climate during the summer following El Niño. J Clim 22:730–747CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  50. Xie SP, Du Y, Huang G et al (2010) Decadal shift in El Nino influences on Indo-western Pacific and East Asian climate in the 1970s. J Clim 23:3352–3368CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  51. Yang S, Zhang Z, Kousky VE, Higgins RW, Yoo SH, Liang J, Fan Y (2008) Simulations and seasonal prediction of the Asian summer monsoon in the NCEP Climate Forecast System. J Clim 21:3755–3775CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  52. Yoo SH, Yang S, Ho CH (2006) Variability of the Indian Ocean sea surface temperature and its impacts on Asian-Australian monsoon climate. J Geophys Res 111:D03108CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  53. Yoo SH, Fasullo J, Yang S, Ho CH (2010) On the relationship between Indian Ocean sea surface temperature and the transition from El Nino to La Nina. J Geophys Res 115:D15114. doi: 10.1029/2009JD012978 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  54. Yu J-Y, Lau KM (2004) Contrasting Indian Ocean SST variability with and without ENSO influence: a coupled atmosphere-ocean GCM study. Meteorol Atmos Phys. doi: 10.1007/s00703-004-0094-7 Google Scholar
  55. Yu J-Y, Mechoso CR, McWilliams JC, Arakawa A (2002) Impacts of the Indian Ocean on the ENSO cycle. Geophys Res Lett 29:1204. doi: 10.1029/2001GL014098 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  56. Yuan X, Wood EF, Luo L, Pan M (2011) A first look at Climate Forecast System version 2 (CFSv2) for hydrological seasonal prediction. Geophys Res Lett 38:L13402Google Scholar
  57. Yuan Y, Yang S, Zhang Z (2012) Different evolutions of the Philippine Sea anticyclone between eastern and central Pacific El Niño: possible effect of Indian Ocean SST. J Clim 25:7867–7883CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  58. Zheng XT, Xie SP, Liu Q (2011) Response of the Indian Ocean basin mode and its capacitor effect to global warming. J Clim 24:6146–6164CrossRefGoogle Scholar

Copyright information

© Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2013

Authors and Affiliations

  • Xingwen Jiang
    • 1
  • Song Yang
    • 2
    Email author
  • Jianping Li
    • 3
  • Yueqing Li
    • 1
  • Haoran Hu
    • 1
  • Yi Lian
    • 4
  1. 1.Institute of Plateau MeteorologyChina Meteorological AdministrationChengduChina
  2. 2.Department of Atmospheric SciencesSun Yat-sen UniversityGuangzhouChina
  3. 3.National Key Laboratory of Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics, Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijingChina
  4. 4.Institute of Meteorological Sciences of Jilin ProvinceChangchunChina

Personalised recommendations