Advertisement

Climate Dynamics

, Volume 42, Issue 9–10, pp 2585–2601 | Cite as

Interdecadal changes in interannual variability of the global monsoon precipitation and interrelationships among its subcomponents

  • Eun-Jeong Lee
  • Kyung-Ja HaEmail author
  • Jong-Ghap Jhun
Article

Abstract

The interdecadal and the interannual variability of the global monsoon (GM) precipitation over the area which is chosen by the definition of Wang and Ding (Geophys Res Lett 33: L06711, 2006) are investigated. The recent increase of the GM precipitation shown in previous studies is in fact dominant during local summer. It is evident that the GM monsoon precipitation has been increasing associated with the positive phase of the interdecadal Pacific oscillation in recent decades. Against the increasing trend of the GM summer precipitation in the Northern Hemisphere, its interannual variability has been weakened. The significant change-point for the weakening is detected around 1993. The recent weakening of the interannual variability is related to the interdecadal changes in interrelationship among the GM subcomponents around 1993. During P1 (1979–1993) there is no significant interrelationship among GM subcomponents. On the other hand, there are significant interrelationships among the Asian, North American, and North African summer monsoon precipitations during P2 (1994–2009). It is noted that the action center of the interdecadal changes is the Asian summer (AS) monsoon system. It is found that during P2 the Western North Pacific summer monsoon (WNPSM)-related variability is dominant but during P1 the ENSO-related variability is dominant over the AS monsoon region. The WNPSM-related variability is rather related to central-Pacific (CP) type ENSO rather than the eastern-Pacific (EP) type ENSO. Model experiments confirm that the CP type ENSO forcing is related to the dominant WNPSM-related variability and can be responsible for the significant interrelationship among GM subcomponents.

Keywords

Global monsoon Western North Pacific summer monsoon Interdecadal change Precipitation Interdecadal Pacific oscillation CP warming 

Notes

Acknowledgments

This GRL work was supported by the National Research Foundation of Korea (NRF) grant funded by the Korea government (MEST) (No. 2011-0021927) in Korea.

References

  1. Adams DK, Comrie AC (1997) The North American monsoon. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 78:2197–2213CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  2. Adler RF, Huffman GJ, Chang A et al (2003) The version 2 Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) monthly precipitation analysis (1979–present). J Hydrometeorl 4:1147–1167CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  3. Ashock K, Behera SK, Rao SA, Weng H, Yamagata T (2007) El Niño Modoki and its possible teleconnection. J Geophys Res 112:C11007CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  4. Chen J, Gupta AK (2000) Parametric statistical change point analysis. Birkhauser, BaselCrossRefGoogle Scholar
  5. Ha KJ, Ha E (2006) Climatic change and interannual fluctuations in the long-term record of monthly precipitation for Seoul. Int J Climatol 26(5):607–618CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  6. Hsu P, Li T, Wang B (2011) Trends in global monsoon area and precipitation over the past 30 years. Geophys Res Lett 38:L8701Google Scholar
  7. Kalnay E, Kanamitsu M, Kistler R et al (1996) The NCEP/NCAR 40-year reanalysis project. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 77:437–471CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  8. Kao HY, Yu JY (2009) Contrasting eastern-Pacific and central-Pacific types of ENSO. J Clim 22:615–632CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  9. Kitoh A, H Endo, KK Kumar, IFA Cavalcanti, P Goswami, T Zhou (2013) Monsoons in a changing world: a regional perspective in a global context. JGR. doi: 10.1002/jgrd.50258
  10. Kug JS, Jin FF, An SI (2009) Two types of El Niño events: cold tongue El Niño and warm pool El Niño. J Clim 22:1499–1515CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  11. Kwon MH, Jhun JG, Wang B, An SI, Kug JS (2005) Decadal change in relationship between east Asian and WNP summer monsoons. Geophys Res Lett 32:L16709CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  12. Lee JY, B Wang (2012) Future change of global monsoon in the CMIP5. Clim Dyn. doi: 10.1007/s00382-012-1564-0
  13. Lepage Y (1971) A combination of Wilcoxson’s and Ansari-Bradley’s statistics. Biometrika 58:213–217CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  14. Li H, Zhou T, Li C (2010) Decreasing trend in global land monsoon precipitation over the past 50 years simulated by a coupled climate model. Adv Atmos Sci 27(2):285–292. doi: 10.1007/s00376-009-8173-9
  15. Liu J, Wang B, Ding Q, Kuang X, Soon W, Zorita E (2009) Centennial variations of the global monsoon precipitation in the last millennium: results from ECHO-G model. J Clim 22:2356–2371CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  16. Pettitt A (1979) A non-parametric approach to the change-point problem. Appl Stat 28(2):126–135CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  17. Pettitt A (1980a) A simple cumulative sum type statistic for the change-point problem with zero-one observations. Biometrika 67:79–84CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  18. Pettitt A (1980b) Some results on estimating a change-point using nonparametric type statistics. J Stat Comput Simul 11:261–272CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  19. Rayner NA, Parker DE, Horton EB, Folland CK, Alexander LV, Rowell DP, Kent EC, Kaplan A (2003) Global analyses of sea surface temperature, sea ice, and night marine air temperature since the late nineteenth century. J Geophys Res 108:4407. doi: 10.1029/2002JD002670 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  20. Roeckner E et al (2003) The atmospheric general circulation model ECHAM5, part I: model description. Max-Planck-Inst für Meteorol Rep 349:127Google Scholar
  21. Trenberth K, Stepaniak D, Caron J (2000) The global monsoon as seen through the divergent atmospheric circulation. J Clim 13:3969–3993CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  22. Wang B, Ding Q (2006) Changes in global monsoon precipitation over the past 56 years. Geophys Res Lett 33:L06711Google Scholar
  23. Wang B, Ding Q (2008) Global monsoon: dominant mode of annual variation in the tropics. Dyn Atmos Ocean 44:165–183CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  24. Wang B, Wu R, Fu X (2000) Pacific-east Asian teleconnection: how does ENSO affect east Asian climate? J Clim 13:1517–1536CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  25. Wang B, Wu R, Lau KM (2001) Interannual variability of the Asian summer monsoon: contrasts between the Indian and the western north Pacific-east Asian monsoons. J Clim 14:4073–4090CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  26. Wang B, Wu R, Li T (2003) Atmosphere-Warm ocean interaction and its impact on Asian-Australian monsoon variation. J Clim 16:1195–1211CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  27. Wang B, Yang J, Zhou T, Wang B (2008) Interdecadal changes in the major modes of Asian–Australian monsoon variability: strengthening relationship with ENSO since the late 1970s. J Clim 21:1771–1789CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  28. Wang B, Liu J et al (2012) Recent change of the global monsoon precipitation (1979–2008). Clim Dyn 39:1123–1135CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  29. Wang B, Xiang B, Lee JY (2013) Subtropical high predictability establishes a promising way for monsoon and tropical storm predictions. PNAS 110:2718–2722CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  30. Wu B, Zhou T, Li T (2009) Seasonally evolving dominant interannual variability modes of East Asian climate. J Clim 22:2992–3005Google Scholar
  31. Wu B, Li T, Zhou T (2010) Relative contributions of the Indian Ocean and local SST anomalies to the maintenance of the western North Pacific anomalous anticyclone during El Niño decaying summer. J Clim 23:2974–2986Google Scholar
  32. Yonetani T, Gregory JMC (1994) Abrupt changes in regional temperature in the conterminous United States, 1895–1989. Clim Res 4:13–23CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  33. Yu JY, Kao HY (2007) Decadal changes of ENSO persistence barrier in SST and ocean heat content indices: 1958–2001. J Geophys Res 112:13106CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  34. Yu JY, Kao HY, Lee T (2011) Subtropics-related interannual sea surface temperature variability in the equatorial central Pacific. J Clim 23:2869–2884CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  35. Yun KS, Seo KH, Ha KJ (2008) Relationship between ENSO and northward propagating intraseasonal oscillation in the east Asian summer monsoon system. J Geophys Res 113:D14120. doi: 10.1029/2008JD009901 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  36. Yun KS, Seo KH, Ha KJ (2010) Interdecadal change in the relationship between ENSO and the intraseasonal oscillation in East Asia. J Clim 23:3599–3612. doi: 10.1175/2010JCLI3431.1 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  37. Zhang L, Zhou T (2011) An assessment of monsoon precipitation changes during 1901–2001. Clim Dyn 37:279–296. doi: 10.1007/s00382-011-0993-5 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  38. Zhang L, Zhou T, Wu B, Bao Q (2010) The annual modes of tropical precipitation simulated by the LASG/IAP coupled ocean-atmosphere model FGOALS_s1.1. Acta Meteorol Sinica 24(2):189–202CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  39. Zhou T, Zhang L, Li H (2008a) Changes in global land monsoon area and total rainfall accumulation over the last half century. Geophys Res Lett 35:L16707. doi: 10.1029/2008GL034881 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  40. Zhou T, Yu R, Li H, Wang B (2008b) Ocean forcing to changes in global monsoon precipitation over the recent half-century. J Clim 21:3832–3852Google Scholar
  41. Zhou T, Wu B, Scaife AA, Bronnimann S et al (2009) The CLIVAR C20C project: which components of the Asian-Australian monsoon circulation variations are forced and reproducible? Clim Dyn 33:1051–1068. doi: 10.1007/s00382-008-0501-8 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  42. Zhou T, Hsu HH, Matsuno J (2011) Summer monsoons in East Asia, Indochina, and the western North Pacific. The global monsoon system: research and forecast, 2nd edn. World Scientific Publishing Co, Singapore, pp 43–72CrossRefGoogle Scholar

Copyright information

© Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2013

Authors and Affiliations

  1. 1.Division of Earth Environmental SystemPusan National UniversityPusanKorea
  2. 2.School of Earth and Environmental Sciences/Research Institute of OceanographySeoul National UniversitySeoulKorea

Personalised recommendations