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Climate Dynamics

, Volume 39, Issue 9–10, pp 2585–2608 | Cite as

Evaporation-precipitation variability over Indian Ocean and its assessment in NCEP Climate Forecast System (CFSv2)

  • Samir PokhrelEmail author
  • Hasibur Rahaman
  • Anant Parekh
  • Subodh Kumar Saha
  • Ashish Dhakate
  • Hemantkumar S. Chaudhari
  • Rakesh Mohan Gairola
Article
Part of the following topical collections:
  1. Topical Collection on Climate Forecast System Version 2 (CFSv2)

Abstract

An attempt has been made to explore all the facets of Evaporation-Precipitation (E-P) distribution and variability over the Indian Ocean (IO) basin using Objectively Analyzed air-sea Fluxes (OAFlux) data and subsequently a thorough assessment of the latest version of National Centers for Environment Prediction (NCEP) Climate Forecast System (CFS) version-2 is done. This study primarily focuses on two fundamental issues, first, the core issue of pervasive cold SST bias in the CFS simulation in the context of moisture flux exchange between the atmosphere and the ocean and second, the fidelity of the model in simulating mean and variability of E-P and its elemental components associated with the climatic anomalies occurring over the Indian and the Pacific ocean basin. Valuation of evaporation and precipitation, the two integral component of E-P, along with the similar details of wind speed, air-sea humidity difference (\(\Updelta Q\)) and Sea Surface Temperature (SST) are performed. CFS simulation is vitiated by the presence of basin wide systematic positive bias in evaporation, \(\Updelta Q\) and similar negative bias in wind speed and SST. Bifurcation of the evaporation bias into its components reveals that bias in air humidity (\(\hbox{Q}_{a}\)) is basically responsible for the presence of pervasive positive evaporation bias. The regions where CFS does not adhere to the observed wind-evaporation and \(\hbox{Q}_{a}\)-evaporation relation was found to lie over the northern Arabian Sea (AS), the western Bay of Bengal (BoB) and the western Equatorial IO. Evaporation bias is found to control a significant quantum of cold SST bias over most of the basin owing to its intimate association with SST in a coupled feedback system. This area is stretched over the almost entire north IO, north of \(15^{\circ}\hbox{S}\) excluding a small equatorial strip, where the evaporation bias may essentially explain 20–100 % of cold SST bias. This percentage is maximum over the western IO, central AS and BoB. The CFS simulation comply the distinct feature of the observed mean annual cycle of evaporation and precipitation, but with the additive systematic bias over most of the region. El Niño and negative Indian Ocean Dipole (NIOD) seems to have much better control over the interannual variability of evaporation in the CFS simulation, contrary to the observation where El Niño and positive Indian Ocean Dipole (PIOD) has the larger say. Both El Niño and PIOD (La Niña and NIOD) have the negative (positive) influence on the basin wide evaporation with the exception over a limited region and this relation holds for the twain. The seasonal (JJA and SON) locking of El Niño and PIOD to evaporation and precipitation is displayed by the north-south and east-west asymmetric correlation pattern respectively and this is much perspicuous in the observation as compared to the CFS. The conjoined influence of El Niño and PIOD on evaporation (precipitation) reveals the dominance of PIOD (PIOD + El Niño) response in case of both the observation as well as the CFS. This study will lead a way forward to rectify the ubiquitous cold SST bias in the CFS simulation and help in establishing the credibility of the CFS in terms of seasonal predictability.

Keywords

Indian Ocean Dipole Equatorial Indian Ocean Climate Forecast System Indian Ocean Dipole Event Positive Indian Ocean Dipole 
These keywords were added by machine and not by the authors. This process is experimental and the keywords may be updated as the learning algorithm improves.

Notes

Acknowledgments

This work is supported by the project “Estimation and Validation of Fresh Water Flux from Satellites and the Role of Derived Flux on Simulation of Ocean Hydrography and Circulation" under MOP-II of Space Applications Center, ISRO, Ahmedabad. All the data sources (OAFlux and GPCP) and Ferret freeware are duly acknowledged. Authors acknowledge the encouragement from Prof. B. N.Goswami and Dr. Surya Chandra Rao for pursuing this research. Authors also thanks two anonymous reviewers for their constructive comments.

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Copyright information

© Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2012

Authors and Affiliations

  • Samir Pokhrel
    • 1
    Email author
  • Hasibur Rahaman
    • 2
  • Anant Parekh
    • 1
  • Subodh Kumar Saha
    • 1
  • Ashish Dhakate
    • 1
  • Hemantkumar S. Chaudhari
    • 1
  • Rakesh Mohan Gairola
    • 3
  1. 1.Indian Institute of Tropical MeteorologyPuneIndia
  2. 2.Indian National Centre for Ocean Information ServicesHyderabadIndia
  3. 3.Space Applications Centre, ISROAhmedabadIndia

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