Abstract
Since the 1990s, the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau (QTP) has experienced a strikingly warming and wetter climate that alters the thermal and hydrological properties of frozen ground. A positive correlation between the warming and thermal degradation in permafrost or seasonally frozen ground (SFG) has long been recognized. Still, a predictive relationship between historical wetting under warming climate conditions and frozen ground has not yet been well demonstrated, despite the expectation that it will become even more important because precipitation over the QTP has been projected to increase continuously in the near future. This study investigates the response of the thermal regime to historical wetting in both permafrost and SFG areas and examines their relationships separately using the Community Land Surface Model version 4.5. Results show that wetting before the 1990s across the QTP mainly cooled the permafrost body in the arid and semiarid zones, with significant correlation coefficients of 0.60 and 0.48, respectively. Precipitation increased continually at the rate of 6.16 mm decade−1 in the arid zone after the 1990s but had a contrasting warming effect on permafrost through a significant shortening of the thawing duration within the active layer. However, diminished rainfall in the humid zone after the 1990s also significantly extended the thawing duration of SFG. The relationship between the ground thawing index and precipitation was significantly negatively correlated (−0.75). The dual effects of wetting on the thermal dynamics of the QTP are becoming critical because of the projected increases in future precipitation.
摘要
自20世纪90年代以来,青藏高原经历了明显的增温变湿过程,这显著地改变了冻土的水热属性。气候增温与高原冻土热退化间的正相关关系目前已经被广泛认知,然而,历史时期高原变湿事实与冻土热状况变化之间的预测关系尚未建立。随着未来高原湿化过程的持续,气候变暖背景下高原降水量的增加对冻土热动力的影响将日益增强。本文使用陆面过程模式CLM4.5,模拟了高原增暖变湿过程中各气候区域土壤冻融指数的变化,计算了多年冻土和季节性冻土区冻融指数与降水量的相关系数, 探讨了不同冻土类型对降水量异常的热响应差异。结果表明,20世纪90年代之前,高原降水量的增加主要对多年冻土产生冷却效应:干旱区和半干旱区的变湿过程分别显著延长了活动层内的冻结时长及消融时长,相关系数分别为0.60和0.48;20世纪90年代后,高原降水量增加的空间差异性逐渐增强。干旱区的降水量持续增加(6.16 毫米/10年),充足的降水对多年冻土起到了相反的暖化作用,具体表现为活动层内消融指数的显著减小,冻土消融期缩短;而湿润区的降水量呈下降趋势(20.10 毫米/10年),这对季节性冻土的消融期的延长产生了显著地影响,相关系数为0.75。随着未来青藏高原湿化过程的加剧,降水量的增加对冻土热动态的双重影响将会变得至关重要。
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Acknowledgements
We gratefully acknowledge in situ data support from the Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research, Chinese Academy of Science (https://doi.org/10.1922/sciencedb.00103), and the National Tibetan Plateau Data Center (http://data.tpdc.ac.cn/zh-hans/data/789e838e-16ac-4539-bb7e-906217305a1d/?q=2002-2018). This work was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 41905008, 41975007, and 42075081) and the Innovation and Entrepreneurship Training Program for College Students of Chengdu University of Information Technology (CUIT) (202210621003, 202210621039, 202110621015). Additional support was provided by the Scientific Research Foundation of CUIT (KYTZ202126). We thank the Max Planck Institute of Meteorology (Atmosphere in the Earth System) for providing hospitality and support.
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Article Highlights
• Before the 1990s, wetting mainly imposed a cooling effect on permafrost areas.
• The continuous increase in rainfall since the 1990s has exerted a strong warming influence on permafrost, especially in arid zones.
• After the 1990s, wetting began to trigger a warming influence on the thermal regime of seasonally frozen ground.
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Fang, X., Li, Z., Cheng, C. et al. Response of Freezing/Thawing Indexes to the Wetting Trend under Warming Climate Conditions over the Qinghai -Tibetan Plateau during 1961–2010: A Numerical Simulation. Adv. Atmos. Sci. 40, 211–222 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-022-2109-z
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-022-2109-z