Abstract
Precipitation detection is an essential step in radiance assimilation because the uncertainties in precipitation would affect the radiative transfer calculation and observation errors. The traditional precipitation detection method for microwave only detects clouds and precipitation horizontally, without considering the three-dimensional distribution of clouds. Extending precipitation detection from 2D to 3D is expected to bring more useful information to the data assimilation without using the all-sky approach. In this study, the 3D precipitation detection method is adopted to assimilate Microwave Temperature Sounder-2 (MWTS-II) onboard the Fengyun-3D, which can dynamically detect the channels above precipitating clouds by considering the near-real-time cloud parameters. Cycling data assimilation and forecasting experiments for Typhoons Lekima (2019) and Mitag (2019) are carried out. Compared with the control experiment, the quantity of assimilated data with the 3D precipitation detection increases by approximately 23%. The quality of the additional MWTS-II radiance data is close to the clear-sky data. The case studies show that the average root-mean-square errors (RMSE) of prognostic variables are reduced by 1.7% in the upper troposphere, leading to an average reduction of 4.53% in typhoon track forecasts. The detailed diagnoses of Typhoon Lekima (2019) further show that the additional MWTS-II radiances brought by the 3D precipitation detection facilitate portraying a more reasonable circulation situation, thus providing more precise structures. This paper preliminarily proves that 3D precipitation detection has potential added value for increasing satellite data utilization and improving typhoon forecasts.
摘 要
在卫星辐射率资料同化中, 云和降水的不确定性会影响辐射传输计算和观测误差确定, 因此合理的降水检测对卫星资料同化非常重要. 在传统卫星微波辐射率资料降水检测方法中, 仅从水平方向进行检测, 未考虑云的三维分布特征. 因此, 如果将降水检测从二维扩展至三维, 有望为微波辐射率资料同化带来更多有用的观测信息. 本文通过考虑近实时云参数特征, 对云顶之上晴空通道进行动态选择, 实现了风云三号 D 星微波温度计资料的三维降水检测, 并以 2019 年的台风“利奇马”和“米娜”为例, 开展了循环同化及预报试验. 试验结果表明: 采用三维降水检测方法相较采用传统方法, 参与同化的数据量增加了约 23%, 且新增辐射率资料与晴空资料的质量相当; 多时次不同预报时效结果显示, 对流层高层的平均预报均方根误差减少 1.7%, 台风路径平均预报误差减少 4.5%; 对台风“利奇马”的详细诊断进一步表明, 三维降水检测带来的新增辐射率资料有利于模拟出更合理的大气环流形势, 从而得到更精确的台风结构.
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Data statement. The Level-1c (L1c) datasets of the FY-3D MWTS-II and the BT of MERSI-2 were provided by the NSMC (http://data.nsmc.org.cn). The best tracks of JTWC were from International Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardship (https://www.ncei.noaa.gov). The NCEP/GFS analysis was obtained from NOAA (https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov). The NCEP FNL was obtained from NCAR (https://rda.ucar.edu/datasets/ds083.2). The ERA5 was obtained fron ECMWF https://cds.climate.copernicus.eu/#!/home).
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Acknowledgements
This work is jointly sponsored by the National Key Research and Development Program of China (Grant Nos. 2018YFC1506701 and 2017YFC1502102) and the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 41675102). The authors would also like to thank three reviewers for their many valuable comments to help us improve the quality of this paper.
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Article Highlights
• The precipitation detection for satellite radiances is extended from 2D to 3D space with a dynamic channel selection method.
• With the 3D precipitation detection, the amount of assimilated FY-3D MWTS-II data is greatly increased without increasing observation error.
• The 3D precipitation detection shows the potential value added for typhoon track and intensity analysis and forecasts.
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Qin, L., Chen, Y., Ma, G. et al. Assimilation of FY-3D MWTS-II Radiance with 3D Precipitation Detection and the Impacts on Typhoon Forecasts. Adv. Atmos. Sci. 40, 900–919 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-022-1252-x
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-022-1252-x
Key words
- numerical weather prediction
- radiance assimilation
- microwave temperature sounding
- FY-3D MWTS-II
- precipitation detection