The variation of the vegetation growing season in the Three-Rivers Headwater Region of the Tibetan Plateau has recently become a controversial topic. One issue is that the estimated local trend in the start of the vegetation growing season (SOS) based on remote sensing data is easily affected by outliers because this data series is short. In this study, we determine that the spring minimum temperature is the most influential factor for SOS. The significant negative linear relationship between the two variables in the region is evaluated using Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer–Normalized Difference Vegetation Index data for 2000–13. We then reconstruct the SOS time series based on the temperature data for 1960–2013. The regional mean SOS shows an advancing trend of 1.42 d (10 yr)−1 during 1960–2013, with the SOS occurring on the 160th and 151st days in 1960 and 2013, respectively. The advancing trend enhances to 6.04 d (10 yr)−1 during the past 14 years. The spatiotemporal variations of the reconstructed SOS data are similar to those deduced from remote sensing data during the past 14 years. The latter exhibit an even larger regional mean trend of SOS [7.98 d (10 yr−1)] during 2000–13. The Arctic Oscillation is found to have significantly influenced the changing SOS, especially for the eastern part of the region, during 2000–13.
近年来, 三江源植被春季物候期变化趋势的研究存在争议. 遥感数据的长度过短, 在反演植被生长季开始日(SOS)变化趋势时, 研究结果容易受到个别年份极端值的影响. 本文采用2000-2013年的MODIS-NDVI时序数列提取生长季开始日(SOS), 并建立SOS与春季温度间的相关关系;再利用1960-2013年春季温度数据重建过去近五十年SOS的时间序列. 在五十年大背景下讨论SOS 近十年的变化, 结果表明:(1)春季最低温度是与三江源SOS相关性最高的气象因子. 1960-2013年间, 研究地区的SOS呈现显著提前趋势, 从1960年的160日提前到2013年的151日, 增长速率为1.42d/10a;(2)2000-2013年间, SOS提前速率加快, 增长至6.04 d/10a. 遥感反演结果与温度重建结果基本一致, 提前速率为7.98d/10a;(3)北极涛动对三江源地区的SOS有显著影响, 尤其是在研究地区的东部.
This is a preview of subscription content, log in to check access.
Buy single article
Instant access to the full article PDF.
Price includes VAT for USA
Barnett, T. P., J. C. Adam, and D. P. Lettenmaier, 2005: Potential impacts of a warming climate on water availability in snow-dominated regions. Nature, 438(7066), 303–309, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature04141.
Chen, H., Q. A. Zhu, N. Wu, Y. F. Wang, and C.-H. Peng, 2011a: Delayed spring phenology on the Tibetan plateau may also be attributable to other factors than winter and spring warming. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 108(19), E93, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1100091108.
Chen, H. L., Y. J. Liu, Z. X. Du, Z. Y. Liu, and C. H. Zou, 2011b: The change of growing season of the vegetation in Huanghe-Huaihe-Haihe region and its responses to climate changes. Journal of Applied Meteorological Science, 22(4), 437–444, https://doi.org/10.3969/j.issn.1001-7313.2011.04.006. (in Chinese with English abstract)
Chmielewski, F.-M., A. Müller, and E. Bruns, 2004: Climate changes and trends in phenology of fruit trees and field crops in Germany, 1961-2000. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 121(1–2), 69–78, https://doi.org/10.1016/S0168-1923(03)00161-8.
Cong, N., T. Wang, H. J. Nan, Y. C. Ma, X. H. Wang, and R. B. Myneni, 2013: Changes in satellite-derived spring vegetation green-up date and its linkage to climate in China from 1982 to 2010: A multimethod analysis. Global Change Biology, 19(3), 881–891, https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.12077.
de Beurs, K. M., and G. M. Henebry, 2008: Northern annular mode effects on the land surface phenologies of northern Eurasia. J. Climate, 21(17), 4257–4279, https://doi.org/10.1175/2008JCLI2074.1.
Ding, M. J., Y. L. Zhang, X. M. Sun, L. S. Liu, Z. F. Wang, and W. Q. Bai, 2013: Spatiotemporal variation in alpine grassland phenology in the Qinghai-Tibetan plateau from 1999 to 2009. Chinese Science Bulletin, 58(3), 396–405, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11434-012-5407-5.
Hu, M. Q., F. Mao, H. Sun, and Y. Y. Hou, 2011: Study of normalized difference vegetation index variation and its correlation with climate factors in the three-river-source region. International Journal of Applied Earth Observation and Geoinformation, 13(1), 24–33, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jag.2010.06.003.
Huang, N. E., and Z. H. Wu, 2008: A review on Hilbert-Huang transform: Method and its applications to geophysical studies. Rev. Geophys., 46(2), RG2006, https://doi.org/10.1029/2007RG000228.
Huang, N. E., and Coauthors, 1998: The empirical mode decomposition and the Hilbert spectrum for nonlinear and nonstationary time series analysis. Proc. Roy. Soc. A, 454(1971), 903–995, https://doi.org/10.1098/rspa.1998.0193.
Jeong, S.-J., C.-H. Ho, H.-J. Gim, and M. E. Brown, 2011: Phenology shifts at start vs. end of growing season in temperate vegetation over the northern hemisphere for the period 1982-2008. Global Change Biology, 17(7), 2385–2399, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2486.2011.02397.x.
Kong, D. D., Q. Zhang, W. L. Huang, and X. H. Gu, 2017: Vegetation phenology change in Tibetan Plateau from 1982 to 2013 and its related meteorological factors. Acta Geographica Sinica, 72(1), 39–52, https://doi.org/10.11821/dlxb201701004. (in Chinese with English abstract)
Li, Z., and Z.-W. Yan, 2009: Homogenized daily mean/maximum/minimum temperature series for China from 1960-2008. Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters, 2(4), 237–243, https://doi.org/10.1080/16742834.2009.11446802.
Li, Z., and Z. W. Yan, 2010: Application of multiple analysis of series for homogenization to Beijing daily temperature series (1960-2006). Adv. Atmos. Sci., 27(4), 777–787, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376–00909052-0.
Linderholm, H.W., 2006: Growing season changes in the last century. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 137(1–2), 1–14, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2006.03.006.
Liu, G. H., Q. H. Tang, X. C. Liu, J. H. Dai, X. Z. Zhang, Q. S. Ge, and Y. Tang, 2014b: Spatiotemporal analysis of ground-based woody plant leafing in response to temperature in temperate eastern China. International Journal of Biometeorology, 58(7), 1583–1592, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00484-013-0762-8.
Liu, L. M., Y. T. Liang, H. Y. Ma, and J. Huang, 2004: Relationship research between MODIS-NDVI and AVHRR-NDVI. Geomatics and Information Science of Wuhan University, 29, 307–310, https://doi.org/10.3321/j.issn:1671-8860.2004.04.006. (in Chinese with English abstract)
Liu, X. F., X. F. Zhu, W. Q. Zhu, Y. Z. Pan, C. Zhang, and D. H. Zhang, 2014a: Changes in spring phenology in the threerivers headwater region from 1999 to 2013. Remote Sensing, 6(9), 9130–9144, https://doi.org/10.3390/rs6099130.
Lloyd, D., 1990: A phenological classification of terrestrial vegetation cover using shortwave vegetation index imagery. Int. J. Remote Sens., 11(12), 2269–2279, https://doi.org/10.1080/01431169008955174.
Luo, C. F., J. Wang, M. L. Liu, and Z. J. Liu, 2014: Analysis on the change of grassland coverage in the source region of three rivers during 2000-2012. IOP Conference Series: Earth and Environmental Science, Vol. 17, No. 1, p. 012062., IOP Publishing.
Peng, S. B., and Coauthors, 2004: Rice yields decline with higher night temperature from global warming. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 101(27), 9971–9975, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0403720101.
Peterson, B. J., R. M. Holmes, J. W. McClelland, C. J. Vörösmarty, R. B. Lammers, A. I. Shiklomanov, I. A. Shiklomanov, and S. Rahmstorf, 2002: Increasing river discharge to the arctic ocean. Science, 298(5601), 2171–2173, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1077445.
Piao, S. L., J. Y. Fang, L. M. Zhou, P. Ciais, and B. Zhu, 2006: Variations in satellite-derived phenology in China’s temperate vegetation. Global Change Biology, 12(4), 672–685, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2486.2006.01123.x.
Piao, S. L., P. Friedlingstein, P. Ciais, N. Viovy, and J. Demarty, 2007: Growing season extension and its impact on terrestrial carbon cycle in the Northern Hemisphere over the past 2 decades. Global Biogeochemical Cycles, 21(3), https://doi.org/10.1029/2006GB002888.
Piao, S. L., M. D. Cui, A. P. Chen, X. H. Wang, P. Ciais, J. Liu, and Y. H. Tang, 2011a: Altitude and temperature dependence of change in the spring vegetation green-up date from 1982 to 2006 in the Qinghai-Xizang plateau. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 151(12), 1599–1608, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2011.06.016.
Piao, S. L., X. H. Wang, P. Ciais, B. Zhu, T. Wang, and J. Liu, 2011b: Changes in satellite-derived vegetation growth trend in temperate and boreal Eurasia from 1982 to 2006. Global Change Biology, 17(10), 3228–3239, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2486.2011.02419.x.
Qian, C., Z. H. Wu, X. B. Fu, and T. J. Zhou, 2010: On multitimescale variability of temperature in China in modulated annual cycle reference frame. Adv. Atmos. Sci., 27, 1169–1182, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376–009-9121–4.
Reed, B. C., J. F. Brown, D. VanderZee, T. R. Loveland, J. W. Merchant, and D. O. Ohlen, 1994: Measuring phenological variability from satellite imagery. Journal of Vegetation Science, 5(5), 703–714, https://doi.org/10.2307/3235884.
Root, T. L., J. T. Price, K. R. Hall, S. H. Schneider, C. Rosenzweig, and J. A. Pounds, 2003: Fingerprints of global warming on wild animals and plants. Nature, 421(6918), 57–60, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature01333.
Shen, M. G., 2011: Spring phenology was not consistently related to winter warming on the Tibetan Plateau. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 108(19), E91–E92, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1018390108.
Shen, M. G., Z. Z. Sun, S. P. Wang, G. X. Zhang, W. D. Kong, A. P. Chen, and S. L. Piao, 2013: No evidence of continuously advanced green-up dates in the Tibetan Plateau over the last decade. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 110(26), E2329, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1304625110.
Shen, M. G., G. X. Zhang, N. Cong, S. P. Wang, W. D. Kong, and S. L. Piao, 2014: Increasing altitudinal gradient of spring vegetation phenology during the last decade on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 189-190, 71–80, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2014.01.003.
Shen, M. G., and Coauthors, 2015: Evaporative cooling over the Tibetan Plateau induced by vegetation growth. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 112(30), 9299–9304, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1504418112.
Song, C.-Q., S.-C. You, L.-H. Ke, G.-H. Liu, and X.-K. Zhong, 2011: Spatio-temporal variation of vegetation phenology in the Northern Tibetan Plateau as detected by MODIS remote sensing. Chinese Journal of Plant Ecology, 35(8), 853–863, https://doi.org/10.3724/SP.J.1258.2011.00853. (in Chinese with English abstract)
Thompson, D. W. J., and J. M. Wallace, 1998: The arctic oscillation signature in the wintertime geopotential height and temperature fields. Geophys. Res. Lett., 25(9), 1297–1300, https://doi.org/10.1029/98GL00950.
Tian, L. Q., 2015: The research of green-up date in the Qinghai-Tibetan plateau based on remote sensing technology. M.S. thesis, Northwest A&F University. (in Chinese)
Wang, L. X., H. L. Chen, Q. Li, and Y. D. Wu, 2010: Research advances in plant phenology and climate. Acta Ecologica Sinica, 30(2), 447–454. (in Chinese with English abstract)
Wang, T., S. S. Peng, X. Lin, and J. F. Chang, 2013a: Declining snow cover may affect spring phenological trend on the Tibetan Plateau. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 110, E2854–E2855, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1306157110.
Wang, Y. T., L. Q. Yu, F. G. Wang, N. Wang, and J. Liu, 2013b: Effects of low-temperature stress on chlorophyll fluorescence parameters of alfalfa in returning green period. Chinese Journal of Grassland, 35(1), 29–34, https://doi.org/10.3969/j.issn.1673-5021.2013.01.005. (in Chinese with English abstract)
White, M. A., P. F. Thornton, and S. W. Running, 1997: A continental phenology model for monitoring vegetation responses to interannual climatic variability. Global Biogeochemical Cycles, 11(2), 217–234, https://doi.org/10.1029/97GB00330.
Wu, Z. H., and N. E. Huang, 2011: Ensemble empirical mode decomposition: a noise-assisted data analysis method. Advances in Adaptive Data Analysis, 1(1), https://doi.org/10.1142/S1793536909000047.
Xia, J. J., and Z. W. Yan, 2014: Changes in the local growing season in eastern China during 1909-2012. SOLA, 10(1), 163–166, https://doi.org/10.2151/sola.2014-034.
Xia, J. J., Z. W. Yan, and P. L. Wu, 2013: Multidecadal variability in local growing season during 1901-2009. Climate Dyn., 41(2), 295–305, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-012-1438-5.
Xia, J. J., Z. W. Yan, G. S. Jia, H. Q. Zeng, P. D. Jones, and W. Z. Zhou, 2015: Projections of the advance in the start of the growing season during the 21st century based on CMIP5 simulations. Adv. Atmos. Sci., 32(6), 831–838, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-014-4125-0.
Yan, Z. W., J. J. Xia, C. Qian, and W. Zhou, 2011: Changes in seasonal cycle and extremes in China during the period 1960-2008. Adv. Atmos. Sci., 28, 269–283, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-010-0006-3.
Yu, F. F., K. P. Price, J. Ellis, and P. J. Shi, 2003: Response of seasonal vegetation development to climatic variations in eastern central Asia. Remote Sensing of Environment, 87(1), 42–54, https://doi.org/10.1016/S0034-4257(03)00144-5.
Yu, H. Y., E. Luedeling, and J. C. Xu, 2010: Winter and spring warming result in delayed spring phenology on the Tibetan Plateau. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 107(51), 22 151–22 156, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1012490107.
Zeng, H. Q., G. S. Jia, and H. Epstein, 2011: Recent changes in phenology over the northern high latitudes detected from multi-satellite data. Environmental Research Letters, 6, 045508, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748–9326/6/4/045508.
Zhang, G. L., Y. J. Zhang, J. W. Dong, and X. M. Xiao, 2013a: Green-up dates in the Tibetan Plateau have continuously advanced from 1982 to 2011. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 110(11), 4309–4314, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1210423110.
Zhang, G. L., J.W. Dong, Y. J. Zhang, and X. M. Xiao, 2013b: Reply to Shen et al.: No evidence to show nongrowing season NDVI affects spring phenology trend in the Tibetan Plateau over the last decade. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 110(26), E2330–E2331, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1305593110.
Zhang, X. Y., M. A. Friedl, C. B. Schaaf, A. H. Strahler, J. C. F. Hodges, F. Gao, B. C. Reed, and A. Huete, 2003: Monitoring vegetation phenology using MODIS. Remote Sensing of Environment, 84(3), 471–475, https://doi.org/10.1016/S0034-4257(02)00135-9.
This work was supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China (Grant Nos. 2016YFA0600400 and 2016YFA0602500). This work was also supported by the Open Research Fund of the Key Laboratory of Tibetan Environmental Changes and Land Surface Processes, Chinese Academy of Sciences, and the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 41405082).
About this article
Cite this article
Yu, S., Xia, J., Yan, Z. et al. Changing spring phenology dates in the Three-Rivers Headwater Region of the Tibetan Plateau during 1960–2013. Adv. Atmos. Sci. 35, 116–126 (2018). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-017-6296-y
- start of growing season
- normalized difference vegetation index
- spring minimum temperature
- Three-Rivers Headwater Region
- Arctic Oscillation