Fig. 4 | Journal of Nonlinear Science

Fig. 4

From: Memory-Based Reduced Modelling and Data-Based Estimation of Opinion Spreading

Fig. 4

Results for the two-cluster network. Top left: One realization of the microdynamics. Colours represent opinions as in Fig. 3. Top right: Corresponding realization of the macrodynamics \(\xi (X)\). Again there is oscillatory behaviour but also plateaus and short dips as in the red and green graphs at time 25 - 150. This is because at these times one opinion is dominant in one cluster, but not present in the other. Through the links between the clusters, an opinion, that is not present in a cluster but dominant in the other one can be revived, e.g., the blue opinion in the upper cluster. Bottom: 20-step and one-step relative prediction errors of the NAR models determined by SINAR for different memory depths p with \(\lambda = 0\) and \(\lambda = 0.05\). Memory terms yield a significant decrease in the prediction errors compared to Markovian predictions

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