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Risk Prediction of New Adjacent Vertebral Fractures After PVP for Patients with Vertebral Compression Fractures: Development of a Prediction Model

  • Clinical Investigation
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CardioVascular and Interventional Radiology Aims and scope Submit manuscript

A Correction to this article was published on 16 May 2018

This article has been updated

Abstract

Purpose

We aim to determine the predictors of new adjacent vertebral fractures (AVCFs) after percutaneous vertebroplasty (PVP) in patients with osteoporotic vertebral compression fractures (OVCFs) and to construct a risk prediction score to estimate a 2-year new AVCF risk-by-risk factor condition.

Materials and Methods

Patients with OVCFs who underwent their first PVP between December 2006 and December 2013 at Hospital A (training cohort) and Hospital B (validation cohort) were included in this study. In training cohort, we assessed the independent risk predictors and developed the probability of new adjacent OVCFs (PNAV) score system using the Cox proportional hazard regression analysis. The accuracy of this system was then validated in both training and validation cohorts by concordance (c) statistic.

Results

421 patients (training cohort: n = 256; validation cohort: n = 165) were included in this study. In training cohort, new AVCFs after the first PVP treatment occurred in 33 (12.9%) patients. The independent risk factors were intradiscal cement leakage and preexisting old vertebral compression fracture(s). The estimated 2-year absolute risk of new AVCFs ranged from less than 4% in patients with neither independent risk factors to more than 45% in individuals with both factors.

Conclusions

The PNAV score is an objective and easy approach to predict the risk of new AVCFs.

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Change history

  • 16 May 2018

    The following information in bold type should be added to the Acknowledgements section.

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Acknowledgements

This study was funded by the National Basic Research Program of China (973 Program # 2013CB733800, 2013733803), the National High-tech Research Foundation of China (863 project #2012AA022701), the National Scientific and Technical Achievement Translation Foundation ([2012]258), the Jiangsu Provincial Special Program of Medical Science (BL2013029), and the National Natural Science Foundation of China (81230034, 81171434). Funding sources had no involvement in the financial support for the conduct of the research and preparation of the article.

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    Authors and Affiliations

    1. Department of Radiology, Medical School, Zhongda Hospital, Southeast University, 87 DingjiaqiaoRoad, Nanjing, 210009, China

      Bin-Yan Zhong, Shi-Cheng He, Hai-Dong Zhu, Wen Fang, Li Chen, Jin-He Guo, Gang Deng, Guang-Yu Zhu & Gao-Jun Teng

    2. Department of Diagnostic and Interventional Radiology, Shanghai Jiao Tong University Affiliated Sixth People’s Hospital, No. 600 Yi Shan Road, Shanghai, 200233, China

      Chun-Gen Wu

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    Bin-Yan Zhong, Shi-Cheng He, and Hai-Dong Zhu have contributed equally to the project.

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    Zhong, BY., He, SC., Zhu, HD. et al. Risk Prediction of New Adjacent Vertebral Fractures After PVP for Patients with Vertebral Compression Fractures: Development of a Prediction Model. Cardiovasc Intervent Radiol 40, 277–284 (2017). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00270-016-1492-1

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