Validation of the Surgical Outcome Risk Tool (SORT) for Predicting Postoperative Mortality in Colorectal Cancer Patients Undergoing Surgery and Subgroup Analysis

Abstract

Background

The accurate evaluation of perioperative risk is crucial to facilitate the shared decision-making process. Surgical outcome risk tool (SORT) has been developed to provide enhanced and more feasible identification of high-risk surgical patients. Nonetheless, SORT has not been validated for patients with colorectal cancer undergoing surgery. Our aim was to determine whether SORT can accurately predict mortality after surgery for colorectal cancer and to compare it with traditional risk models.

Method

526 patients undergoing surgery performed by a colorectal surgical team in a single Greek tertiary hospital (2011–2019) were included. Five risk models were evaluated: (1) SORT, (2) Physiology and Operative Severity Score for the enumeration of Mortality and Morbidity (POSSUM), (3) Portsmouth POSSUM (P-POSSUM), (4) Colorectal POSSUM (CR-POSSUM), and (5) the Association of Great Britain and Ireland (ACPGBI) score. Model accuracy was assessed by observed to expected (O:E) ratios, and area under Receiver Operating Characteristic curve (AUC).

Results

Ten patients (1.9%) died within 30 days of surgery. SORT was associated with an excellent level of discrimination [AUC:0.81 (95% CI:0.68–0.94); p = 0.001] and provided the best performing calibration of all models in the entire dataset analysis (H–L:2.82; p = 0.83). Nonetheless, SORT underestimated mortality. SORT model demonstrated excellent discrimination and calibration predicting perioperative mortality in patients undergoing (1) open surgery, (2) emergency/acute surgery, and (3) in cases with colon-located cancer.

Conclusion

SORT is an easily adopted risk-assessment tool, associated with enhanced accuracy, that could be implemented in the perioperative pathway of patients undergoing surgery for colorectal cancer.

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Acknowledgements

The present study was originally written as part of a UCL Master's degree within the UCL Centre for Perioperative Medicine.

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DEM contributed to protocol development, acquisition of data, analysis and interpretation of data, drafting the article or revising it critically for important intellectual content, and final approval of the version to be published. DW contributed to protocol development, acquisition of data, interpretation of data, revising the article critically for important intellectual content, and final approval of the version to be published. IB contributed to conception and design, acquisition of data, interpretation of data, revising the article critically for important intellectual content, and final approval of the version to be published. MF contributed to acquisition of data, interpretation of data, revising the article critically for important intellectual content, and final approval of the version to be published. IM contributed to acquisition of data, interpretation of data, revising the article critically for important intellectual content, and final approval of the version to be published. GC contributed to acquisition of data, drafting the article, and final approval of the version to be published. GT contributed to protocol development, acquisition of data, analysis and interpretation of data, drafting the article or revising it critically for important intellectual content, and final approval of the version to be published.

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Correspondence to George A. Tzovaras.

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All authors declare no conflicts of interest regarding the present study. This research did not receive grants from any funding agency in the public, commercial or not-for-profit sectors.

Ethical approval

Ethical approval was obtained by the Scientific Committee of the University Hospital of Larissa (Protocol number: 33606/16–07-19).

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Magouliotis, D.E., Walker, D., Baloyiannis, I. et al. Validation of the Surgical Outcome Risk Tool (SORT) for Predicting Postoperative Mortality in Colorectal Cancer Patients Undergoing Surgery and Subgroup Analysis. World J Surg (2021). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00268-021-06006-6

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