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Mechanistic origins of variability in phytoplankton dynamics. Part II: analysis of mesocosm blooms under climate change scenarios

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Abstract

Driving factors of phytoplankton spring blooms have been discussed since long, but rarely analyzed quantitatively. Here, we use a mechanistic size-based ecosystem model to reconstruct observations made during the Kiel mesocosm experiments (2005–2006). The model accurately hindcasts highly variable bloom developments including community shifts in cell size. Under low light, phytoplankton dynamics was mostly controlled by selective mesozooplankton grazing. Selective grazing also explains initial dominance of large diatoms under high light conditions. All blooms were mainly terminated by aggregation and sedimentation. Allometries in nutrient uptake capabilities led to a delayed, post-bloom dominance of small species. In general, biomass and trait dynamics revealed many mutual dependencies, while growth factors decoupled from the respective selective forces. A size shift induced by one factor often changed the growth dependency on other factors. Within climate change scenarios, these indirect effects produced large sensitivities of ecosystem fluxes to the size distribution of winter phytoplankton. These sensitivities exceeded those found for changes in vertical mixing, whereas temperature changes only had minimal impacts.

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Acknowledgements

We wish to thank Katrin Tirok for helping with the data integration, and Kathrin Lengfellner, Nicole Aberle-Mahlzahn, and Thomas Hansen for their support in conducting the mesocosm experiments and for their data contribution. Two anonymous reviewers provided helpful comments on the manuscript. This work was supported by the Helmholtz Society via the program PACES and by the German Research Foundation (DFG) within the Priority Program 1162 The impact of climate variability on aquatic ecosystems (AQUASHIFT) (GA401/7-1,7-2).

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Institute of Coastal Research, Helmholtz-Zentrum Geesthacht, Geesthacht, Germany

    Kai W. Wirtz

  2. Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research, GEOMAR, Kiel, Germany

    Ulrich Sommer

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  1. Kai W. Wirtz
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  2. Ulrich Sommer
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Correspondence to Kai W. Wirtz.

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Communicated by U.-G. Berninger.

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Wirtz, K.W., Sommer, U. Mechanistic origins of variability in phytoplankton dynamics. Part II: analysis of mesocosm blooms under climate change scenarios. Mar Biol 160, 2503–2516 (2013). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00227-013-2271-z

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00227-013-2271-z

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