Abstract
In this paper I develop a simple, and general model of supply and demand within which almost any theory of consumer and producer behaviour may be integrated by varying parameters. I then investigate the dynamics of this model and its implications for the theory of market evolution, and show that it unifies a number of insights from evolutionary economics. I extend upon these evolutionary theories and also characterise the distribution of prices across the market and investigate its evolution over time.
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Notes
The unawareness of this book within economics and the lack of a Nobel Prize for Richard Nelson and Sidney Winter is surprising given that a cursory internet search reveals that as of August 2014 the book has received well over 25,000 citations, and is often taken as the foundational document for an entire research program in economics (evolutionary economics) which itself is regularly used as a theoretical basis for business and management research. A similarly cursory search - by way of comparison - reveals as of August 2014 approximately a little under 20,000 citations for George Akerlof’s Nobel Prize winning article which introduced the notion of adverse selection and contributed to the development of the economics of imperfect information.
Insofar as all agents in a standard Walrasian model use exactly the same constrained optimisation decision rule and differ only in their endowments and the preference pre-ordering of their alternatives space.
Note that this also opens up a link between an evolutionary model of the market and the notion of unplanned inventories due to effective demand shortfalls which lies at the heart of the macroeconomic analysis of Keynes (1936).
This extension of the model would allow, amongst other things, for the analysis of the role within the market of organisational slack and inventory management, and the definition of firm existence by the factors of production rather than the size of the firm in the market.
For instance, if \(h\left (\cdot \right )=\frac {\cdot }{\bar {q}}\) we are talking about an averaging of costs, if h(⋅)=⋅ then we are talking about total costs, and if \(h\left (\cdot \right )=\frac {\partial \cdot }{\partial \bar {q}_{i}}\) we are talking about marginal costs.
Downie rarely uses the word “evolution” in The Competitive Process (1958), much less “Darwinism”, and his focus is more on the production process which generates the capacity for sales of firms, though as Nightingale (1997) has also noted, he does note the importance of past profits to expanding capacity for sales and the ability to lower costs of production.
This view would actually constitute a generalisation of auction models in neoclassical microeconomic theory such as the seminal Myerson (1981) and Myerson and Satterthwaite (1983) mechanism design problems which solve for optimal pricing schemes by assuming the seller knows the distribution of types. The present model requires no such assumption for the analysis of market outcomes.
A recent paper, Richter and Rubenstein (2015) going back to the basics of equilibrium serves to show that equilibrium in psychological sciences must involve much greater assumptions upon the psychology (in economics, the preferences) underlying exchange.
Assuming differentiability, (though this can be relaxed) the elasticity of demand for firm i with respect to the price set by firm j is \(\varepsilon _{d_{i}}^{p_{j}}=\frac {p_{j}}{{q_{i}^{d}}}\frac {\partial {q_{i}^{d}}}{\partial p_{j}}\).
Though with physical interpretations of the variables rather than economic.
“For unto every one that hath shall be given, and he shall have abundance: but from him that hath not shall be taken even that which he hath” - Matthew 25:29, King James Version.
This expression is in fact robust to the exact type of average used, for instance, it does not matter whether \(\bar {q}\) is an arithmetic or geometric mean, or a weighted arithmetic or a weighted geometric mean.
I thank Ulrich Witt for reminding me of this property of replicator dynamic models.
We could incorporate any number on assumptions on the firms’ knowledge and behaviour here from the firm knowing the exact functional form of demand as in neoclassical economics, to the bare minimum that the firm can only observe the growth in its own size.
That is, \(\lim _{F\rightarrow \infty }{\sum }_{j\ne i}\left (\frac {\varepsilon _{d_{i}}^{p_{j}}}{\left (-1\right )}\right )\frac {1}{p_{j}}\frac {\partial p_{j}}{\partial t}<\infty \).
For instance, Einstein’s equations of general relativity, generate interesting insights even without applying the particular set of assumptions (such as those made by Oppenheimer to demonstrate the existence of black holes) which yield an analytical solution.
Strictly speaking of course, an individual growth rate \(\frac {\partial q_{i}}{\partial t}\) would converge to the growth rate of \({q_{i}^{d}}\left (N\quad \left \{ 0\right \}_{j=1}^{F}\quad \left \{ \left \{ {\alpha _{j}^{k}}\right \}_{k=1}^{N_{A}}\right \}_{j=1}^{F}\right )\).
Specifically, this coefficient would be equal to \(\varepsilon \left (\frac {F}{1-F}\right )\frac {\partial p}{\partial t}\), and we would have to assume that elasticities for each firms’ demand and price dynamics are identical across the market so that growth equations can be written in the form \(\delta \left (\frac {1}{p_{i}}-\frac {1}{p_{j}}\right )\).
Note that the inclusion of q i as an amplifying effect for price differentials could be taken as a proxy for the “availability” of information about a particular firm for consumers.
A bounded, typically connected and convex subspace - that is, a multidimensional interval of A.
Though ultimately, whether normal profits prevail in reality is an assumption, since “economic” profits are supposed to include “opportunity” costs of courses of action not taken, and these are vague enough conceptually to be quite malleable in estimating economic profit.
Fisher’s notoriously opaque “fundamental theorem” of natural selection - another core principle within evolutionary mathematics - says that in the absence of other confounding factors growth in average fitness is equal to the variance of fitness (Price 1972b).
In the original evolutionary biology interpretation, these coefficients reflect the ability of organisms with a certain trait to reproduce (Price 1970).
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Acknowledgments
The author thanks Harry Bloch, Kurt Dopfer, Peter Earl, John Foster, Stan Metcalfe and Ulrich Witt for their comments and discussions on previous drafts of the present work.
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Appendices
Appendix A: An intuitive derivation of the Price equation for economics
One problem with applications of the Price equation to evolutionary economics is that the economic intuition behind it can become difficult to follow. Here I provide a re-derivation (based upon Price (1972a)) of the Price equation using only the terminology of economics. The Price equation serves to decompose the growth rate in average fitness across a population, here this means a decomposition of the growth across the population of the average size of firms. We will begin with the change over one “time period”
it is important to note that the average here is weighted with respect to the {q i (t)} i = 1, much the same as the distribution of prices, which may seem unusual (weighting firm sizes with firm sizes), though it is less unusual once one grasps that the “second”, or “weighting” firm size included in each term of the above expression is being normalised relative to the size of the market - in a sense, but absolutely not exactly being “cancelled out”. Now, we can define what is often called a “selection coefficient” z i for each individual firm within the market Price (1972a, p.486) which reflects the growth rate of the firms within the marketFootnote 25
Now, using this selection coefficient to expand the average size of firms within the market at time t+1, and using the fact that q i (t+1) = q i (t)+Δq i (t) we obtain
Expanding this last equality and re-substituting for q(t+1) we get
Now employing some further mathematical tautologies to manipulate the first term of this expression gives us the following
Notice that when we expand this last term out carefully it collapses to \(E_{q\left (t\right )}^{t}\left (q\right )\). We can now recognise that this equation is reducible using the quotidian statistical concepts of covariance and expectation
Now subtracting \(E_{q\left (t\right )}^{t}\left (q\right )\) from both sides gives us
Which can be further reduced to the elegant Price equation by generalising to an arbitrary time period and (for the sake of it) assuming differentiability in time
Now, inputting \(z_{i}=1+\frac {1}{q}\frac {\partial q}{\partial t}\partial t\) into the definition of covariance gives us
Appendix B: Proofs of theorems
1.1 Proof of Theorem 1
Proof
If it is the case that p j = 0 ∀ j then by the definition of demand elasticity \(\varepsilon _{d_{i}}^{p_{j}}=\frac {p_{j}}{{q_{i}^{d}}}\frac {\partial {q_{i}^{d}}}{\partial p_{j}}=0\,\forall \,j\). This implies that \(\left (\frac {\varepsilon _{d_{i}}^{p_{i}}}{F-1}\right )\frac {1}{p_{i}}\frac {\partial p_{i}}{\partial t}=0\) and \(\left (\frac {\varepsilon _{d_{i}}^{p_{j}}}{\left (-1\right )}\right )\frac {1}{p_{j}}\frac {\partial p_{j}}{\partial t}=0\,\forall \,j\ne i\), since by induction \(0\times \lim _{x\rightarrow \infty }x=0\). Inserting this into Eq. 3.3 yields the result. Similarly, we need only input directly the assumption ∂ p j /∂ t = 0, ∀ j ∈ {1,…, F} into Eq. 3.3 to obtain the result. □
1.2 Proof of Theorem 2
Proof
First take Eq. 3.3 and input the assumptions of normal and substitutable goods, a zero population growth rate and unchanging product attributes. Then the growth rate of the firm can be expressed as
Now, it is a mere fact of logic that any output bought must have been sold, so \({q_{i}^{d}}=q_{i}\). But note that \(q_{i}=0\implies \frac {\partial q_{i}}{\partial t}\ne 0\Leftrightarrow {\sum }_{j\ne i}\left [\left (\frac {\varepsilon _{d_{i}}^{p_{i}}}{F-1}\right )\frac {1}{p_{i}}\frac {\partial p_{i}}{\partial t}-\left (\frac {\varepsilon _{d_{i}}^{p_{j}}}{\left (-1\right )}\right )\frac {1}{p_{j}}\frac {\partial p_{j}}{\partial t}\right ]\ne 0\). Since the laws of physics decree that q i ≥0 therefore, it is the case that
Now suppose that we can partition the set of firms {1,…, F} into two sets B and ¬B such that ∀ j ∈ B we have \(\left [\left (\frac {\varepsilon _{d_{i}}^{p_{i}}}{F-1}\right )\frac {1}{p_{i}}\frac {\partial p_{i}}{\partial t}-\left (\frac {\varepsilon _{d_{i}}^{p_{j}}}{\left (-1\right )}\right )\frac {1}{p_{j}}\frac {\partial p_{j}}{\partial t}\right ]>0\). Then condition (6.10) holds if and only if
□
1.3 Proof of Theorem 3
Proof
This condition consists of a simple rearrangement of Eq. 3.3 when restricted to be greater than zero, so
when rearranged gives us
□
1.4 Proof of Theorem 4
Proof
The market share of firm i with respect to output is given by \(s_{i}=\frac {q_{i}}{{\sum }_{j=1}^{F}q_{j}}\), and its dynamics can be readily obtained by simple application of the quotient rule
It is fairly straightforward then to confirm that market share only grows if the firm grows at a faster rate than output across the market
using the additive law of differential calculus we can expand this into a slightly more tractable (in view of the model above) expression
Now substituting in Eq. 3.3 for the growth rate of firm size we obtain
We can reduce this inequation by isolating behavioural and firm strategy terms which refer to firm i as follows
if we multiply and divide every term in \({\sum }_{j\ne i}^{F}{\sum }_{k=1}^{N_{A}}\frac {\partial {q_{i}^{d}}}{{\partial \alpha _{i}^{k}}}\frac {{\partial \alpha _{i}^{k}}}{\partial t}\) by \(\frac {{\partial \alpha _{i}^{k}}}{{\partial \alpha _{i}^{k}}}\) we can by grouping like terms obtain
Which when we rearrange to isolate on the left hand side any market forces over which firm i has influence gives us our result. □
1.5 Proof of Lemma 1
Proof
This proof is rather trivial and well known to mathematicians and statisticians, but will be included for the sake of rigour. Firstly, if the price distribution is degenerate then
and by the definition of Ξ(p), p i = p ∀ i ∈ Ξ(p) and so ∀ i ∈ Ξ(p), E q (p) = p i , while by the definition of degeneracy this must be true for any i:q i > 0. The zero variance of the distribution follows immediately by inputting p i = E q (p) ∀ i:q i > 0 into the definition of Var q (p). Conversely if it is to be the case that p i = E q (p) ∀ i:q i > 0, and Var q (p) = 0 then by the definition of the first and second moments it must be the case that ∃{i}⊂{1,…, F}:p i = E q (p) ∀ i ∈ {i} and for any i not in this set q i = 0, which is the definition of degeneracy. □
1.6 Proof of Theorem 5
Proof
In order for a uniform price to prevail across the market the price distribution must be degenerate by Lemma 1. But for the price distribution to be degenerate it can seen that we will need the dynamics of the market to lead to convergence to a situation in which \({\sum }_{i\in {\Xi }\left (p\right )}s_{i}=1\), since
But given that Ξ(E q (p))⊂{1,…, F}, for each q i on the left hand side there is a corresponding q i on the right hand side, and so for this to be the case requires that q i = 0 ∀ i∉Ξ(E q (p)), which is the key to the distribution being degenerate by the definition referred to in Lemma 1. So saying that \({\sum }_{i\in {\Xi }\left (p\right )}s_{i}=1\) is identical to saying that the price distribution is degenerate. Hence if it is to be the case that in the market there is convergence to a situation in which \({\sum }_{i\in {\Xi }\left (E_{q}\left (p\right )\right )}s_{i}=1\), it must also be the case by definition of market share that there is a convergence to a situation in which s i = 0 ∀ i∉Ξ(E q (p)). But then for it to be the case that limt→∞ s i = 0 ∀ i∉Ξ(E q (p)), for each and every i∉Ξ(E q (p)) from an initial market share of s i we must have
It should be fairly clear that this will hold if and only if there are a sufficient number of time periods for which \(\frac {\partial s_{i}}{\partial t}<0\) so that \(\lim _{T\rightarrow \infty }{{\int }_{t}^{T}}\frac {\partial s_{i}}{\partial t}\partial t<0\). That is, there must exist a set of time periods \(T_{i\notin {\Xi }\left (p\right )}\subset \mathbb {R}_{+}\) for each and every i∉Ξ(E q (p)) such that
that is, for these periods Theorem 4 are violated for each firm i, and
□
1.7 Proof of Corollary 1
Proof
This is simply the reverse argument of Theorem 5 for the emergence of a dominant firm rather than the non-survival of those which do not conform the uniform price. □
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Markey-Towler, B. Law of the jungle: firm survival and price dynamics in evolutionary markets. J Evol Econ 26, 655–696 (2016). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00191-016-0446-8
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00191-016-0446-8