Table 10 Description of the variables, sources of data, and descriptive statistics

From: Lack of fiscal transparency and economic growth expectations: an empirical assessment from a large emerging economy

Variable name Variable description Data Source Mean Median Maximum Minimum Std. Dev.
E(Yt,T) Expectations of economic growth (current year—nowcast). TSMS/CBB 2.269 2.975 7.600 − 3.860 2.596
E(Yt,T+12m) Expectations of economic growth (12 months ahead). TSMS/CBB 2.612 3.306 5.909 − 2.985 1.930
E(Yt,T+1) Expectations of economic growth (next calendar year). TSMS/CBB 3.043 3.540 5.030 − 2.550 1.368
E(Yt,T,pri) Expectations of economic growth—primary sector (current year—nowcast). TSMS/CBB 2.207 2.520 5.420 − 2.920 2.064
E(Yt,T+12m,pri) Expectations of economic growth—primary sector (12 months ahead). TSMS/CBB 2.465 2.830 4.850 − 2.018 1.662
E(Yt,T+1,pri) Expectations of economic growth—primary sector (next calendar year). TSMS/CBB 2.801 3.070 4.330 − 1.840 1.292
E(Yt,T,man) Expectations of economic growth—manufacturing sector (current year—nowcast). TSMS/CBB 3.374 3.500 12.220 − 5.320 2.704
E(Yt,T+12m,man) Expectations of economic growth—manufacturing sector (12 months ahead). TSMS/CBB 3.397 3.631 6.007 0.008 1.277
E(Yt,T+1,man) Expectations of economic growth—manufacturing sector (next calendar year). TSMS/CBB 3.556 3.750 4.870 0.700 0.815
E(Yt,T,serv) Expectations of economic growth—service sector (current year—nowcast). TSMS/CBB 2.056 2.970 10.820 − 6.120 3.630
E(Yt,T+12m,serv) Expectations of economic growth—service sector (12 months ahead). TSMS/CBB 2.605 3.255 7.280 − 4.444 2.468
E(Yt,T+1,serv) Expectations of economic growth—service sector (next calendar year). TSMS/CBB 3.096 3.695 5.660 − 3.850 1.655
FOPACt,T Fiscal opacity measure—(current year—nowcast). Equation (4)—devised by authors 0.171 0.069 1.000 0.000 0.256
FOPACt,T+12m Fiscal opacity measure—(12 months ahead). Equation (4)—devised by authors 0.262 0.134 1.000 0.000 0.328
FOPACt,T+1 Fiscal opacity measure—(next calendar year). Equation (4)—devised by authors 0.312 0.131 1.000 0.000 0.368
FOPACpc Fiscal opacity measure—principal component. Equation (4)—devised by authors 1.19E−17 − 0.259 1.210 − 0.441 0.494
GAP Output gap measured using as a proxy the industry’s installed capacity. IPEADATA 81.097 81.650 85.100 74.900 2.533
E(GBudgett,+12m) Market expectations for the primary result of the consolidated public sector (% of GDP—Government Budget Result) for the next 12 months. TSMS/CBB 2.004 2.730 4.410 − 2.340 2.211
ΔE(Exchange t,+12m) Variation in market expectations of the exchange rate (R$/US$ average—end of year) for the next 12 months. TSMS/CBB 0.003 − 0.005 0.335 − 0.259 0.071
E(πt+12m)-Target(πt+12m) Difference between market expectations for inflation in the next 12 months and the inflation target announced by the CBB. Devised by authors 0.737 0.774 3.057 − 0.785 0.982
DISGOV Dissatisfaction with the federal government. BNCI 27.533 17.750 82.000 3.000 23.540
Uncertainty Brazilian economy uncertainty index. BIE/FGV 102.072 97.900 136.800 85.100 10.873
GFCrisis Dummy regarding the effect of the Global Financial Crisis of 2008 on the Brazilian economy—value “1” from October 2008 to June 2009, and “0” otherwise Devised by authors      
FISCALPBEt,h Dummy variable—equal to “1” for periods when the projections for the government’s budget deficit are more pessimistic than the one realized, and it assumes a value “0” otherwise. Devised by authors—based on Eq. (1).      
  1. TSMS/CBB—Time Series Management System/Central Bank of Brazil. BNCI—Brazilian National Confederation of Industry. BIE/FGV Brazilian Institute of Economics—Fundação Getúlio Vargas