Skip to main content
SpringerLink
Log in

The long-term effects of mistimed pregnancy on children’s education and employment

  • Original Paper
  • Published:
Journal of Population Economics Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

In this study, we examine the long-term effects of mistimed pregnancy on one’s future educational attainment and employment. We use the time gap between a child’s birth year and their mothers’ marriage year as a proxy indicator of mistimed pregnancy. We find that a large proportion of children were born from 1 to 3 years after their mothers’ marriage, and these children have remarkably higher educational attainment and are more likely to be engaged in a high-skilled profession than children born just before their mothers’ marriage. This negative effect is consistently found in 10 countries studied in this paper.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Fig. 1
Fig. 2
Fig. 3

Similar content being viewed by others

Notes

  1. In Axinn et al. (1998), self-esteem is defined as less positive, proud, capable, competent, and confident about themselves.

  2. In the sample of women living with their biological children, only 2% of them are single, divorced, or widowed. We have tried to full sample with both married and unmarried women, and the results are very similar.

  3. Data are available at https://international.ipums.org/international/.

  4. Individuals who are not staying with their parents are not considered in the analysis since we do not have information on their parents. Census data may suffer from co-residence bias. There are only 1.1% of children below 18 living in households without parents as well as grandparents. There are 8.1% of children below 18 living in households without their biological mother (because of death, divorce or migration of mothers, or children left their families). If we consider people from 18 to 22, the rates are higher. More specifically, for individuals aged from 22 and below, these corresponding figures are 2.2 and 15.3%, respectively. Thus, the bias associated with the selected sample is expected to be small. Table 6 in Appendix presents the sample size of the original data set and the sample size of observations used in this study.

  5. This is due to a so-called incidental parameter problem in maximum likelihood methods (Greene 2004a, 2004b).

  6. The proportion of people completing the secondary and tertiary education for adults is different from the summary statistics of variables in Table A.2 in Appendix since Table A.2 reports the means of variables for the whole sample of individuals aged from 6 to 40.

References

  • Adair L (1999) Filipino children exhibit catch-up growth from age 2 to 12 years. J Nutr 129:1140–1148

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Aizer, A., and Cunha, F. (2012) The production of human capital: endowments, investments and fertility. NBER Working Papers 18429, National Bureau of Economic Research

  • Aizer A, Currie J (2014) The intergenerational transmission of inequality: maternal disadvantage and health at birth. Science 344(6186):856–861

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Aizer A, Stroud L, Buka S (2015) Maternal stress and child outcomes: evidence from siblings. J Hum Resour 51:523–555. https://doi.org/10.3368/jhr.51.3.0914-6664R

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Aizer A, Eli S, Ferrie J, Lleras-Muney A (2016) The long-run impact of cash transfers to poor families. Am Econ Rev 106(4):935–971

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Almond D (2006) Is the 1918 influenza pandemic over? Long-term effects of in utero influenza exposure in the post-1940 U.S. population. J Polit Econ 114:672–712

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Almond D, Mazumder B (2011) Health capital and the prenatal environment: the effect of Ramadan observance during pregnancy. Am Econ J: Appl Econ 3(4):56–85

    Google Scholar 

  • Angrist DJ (2001) Estimation of limited dependent variable models with dummy endogenous regressors: simple strategies for empirical practice. J Bus Econ Stat:29(1), 1–29(1),28

  • Angrist J, Krueger A (1991) Does compulsory school attendance affect schooling and earnings? Q J Econ 106:979–1014

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Angrist, J. D. and J. S. Pischke (2008) Mostly harmless econometrics: an empiricist’s companion. Princeton University Press

  • Axinn WG, Barber JS, Thornton A (1998) The long-term impact of parents' childbearing decisions on children's self-esteem. Demography 35(4):435–443

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bachrach C, Newcomer S (1999) Intended pregnancies and unintended pregnancies: distinct categories or opposite ends of a continuum. Fam Plan Perspect 31(5):251–252

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Barber JS, Axinn WG, Thornton A (1999) Unwanted childbearing, health, and mother–child relationships. J Health Soc Behav 40(3):231–257

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Barro RJ, Lee JW (2013) A new data set of educational attainment in the world, 1950–2010. J Dev Econ 104:184–198

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Becker GS (1965) A theory of the allocation of time. Econ J 75:493–517

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Becker G, Landes E, Michael R (1977) An economic analysis of marital instability. J Polit Econ 85:1141–1187

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Black S, Devereux PJ, Salvanes KG (2005) The more the merrier? The effect of family size and birth order on children's education. Q J Econ 120(2):669–700

    Google Scholar 

  • Black SE, Devereux PJ, Salvanes KG (2016) Does grief transfer across generations? Bereavements during pregnancy and child outcomes. Am Econ J: Appl Econ 8(1):193–223

    Google Scholar 

  • Bongaarts J, Sinding S (2011) Population policy in transition in the developing world. Science 333(6042):574–576

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Breining, S.N., Doyle Jr, J.J., Figlio, D.N., Karbownik, K. and Roth, J., (2017) birth order and delinquency: evidence from Denmark and Florida (No. w23038). National Bureau of Economic Research

  • Buckles K, Hungerman D (2013) Season of birth and later outcomes: old questions, new answers. Rev Econ Stat 95(3):711–724

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Buckles K, Kolka S (2014) Prenatal investments, breastfeeding, and birth order. Soc Sci Med 118:66–70

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Campbell GC, Heckman J, Moon SH, Pinto R, Pungello E, Pan Y (2014) Early childhood investments substantially boost adult health. Science 343:1478–1485

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Cohen J (2010) Reducing HIV infection and abandonment of babies. Science 329(5988):172

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • David HP (2006) Born unwanted, 35 years later: the Prague study. Reprod Health Matters 14(27):181–190

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Do T, Phung T (2010) The importance of being wanted. Am Econ J: Appl Econ 2(4):236–253

    Google Scholar 

  • Donohue JJ, Levitt SD (2001) The impact of legalized abortion on crime. Q J Econ 116(2):379–420

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Duflo, E., and R. Glennerster, And M. Kremer (2008) using randomization in development economics research: a toolkit. In handbook of development economics, volume 4, ed. T. Paul Schultz and John Strauss, 3895–3962. Amsterdam and Oxford: Elsevier, North-Holland

  • Finer LB, Henshaw SK (2006) Disparities in rates of unintended pregnancy in the United States, 1994 and 2001. Perspect Sex Reprod Health 38(2):90–96

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Folbre, Nancy (1994) Children as public goods. The American Economic Review 84(2), Papers and Proceedings of the Hundred and Sixth Annual Meeting of the American Economic Association (May, 1994), pp.86–90

  • Gipson JD, Koenig MA, Hindin MJ (2008) The effects of unintended pregnancy on infant, child, and parental health: a review of the literature. Stud Fam Plan 39(1):18–38

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Gortmaker S, Kagan J, Caspi A, Silva P (1997) Daylength during pregnancy and shyness of children: results from northern and southern hemispheres. Dev Psychobiol 31:107–114

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Greene W (2004a) The behaviour of the maximum likelihood estimator of limited dependent variable models in the presence of fixed effects. Econ J 7(1):98–119

    Google Scholar 

  • Greene W (2004b) Fixed effects and bias due to the incidental parameters problem in the Tobit model. Econ Rev 23(2):125–147

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Heckman, J. (2012) Invest in early childhood development: reduce deficits, strengthen the economy, www.heckmanequation.org

  • Heckman, J., R. Lalonde, and J. Smith (1999) The economics and econometrics of active labor market programs. Handbook of Labor Economics 1999; volume 3, Ashenfelter, A. And D. Card, eds., Elsevier Science

  • Hoynes H, Schanzenbach D, Almond D (2016) Long-run impacts of childhood access to the safety net. Am Econ Rev 106(4):903–934

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Imbens GW, Lemieux T (2008) Regression discontinuity designs: a guide to practice. J Econ 142(2):615–635

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Joyce TJ, Kaestner R, Korenman S (2000) The effect of pregnancy intention on child development. Demography 37(1):83–94

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • de La Rochebrochard E, Joshi H (2013) Children born after unplanned pregnancies and cognitive development at 3 years: social differentials in the United Kingdom millennium cohort. Am J Epidemiol 178(6):910–920

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Lee DS, Lemieux T (2010) Regression discontinuity designs in economics. J Econ Lit, Am Econ Assoc 48(2):281–355

    Google Scholar 

  • Logan, C. E., Holcombe, J. Manlove, and, S. Ryan, (2007) The consequences of unintended childbearing: a white paper, Child Trends and The National Campaign to Prevent Teen and Unplanned Pregnancy, Washington, DC 20008

  • Maluccio JA, Hoddinott JF, Behrman JR, Quisumbing AR, Martorell R, Stein AD (2009) The impact of nutrition during early childhood on education among Guatemalan adults. Econ J 119(537):734–763

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Mani S (2012) Is there complete, partial, or no recovery from childhood malnutrition? Empirical evidence from Indonesia. Oxf Bull Econ Stat 74(5):691–715

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Prentice AM, Ward KA, Goldberg GR, Jarjou LM, Moore SE, Fulford AJ, Prentice A (2013) Critical windows for nutritional interventions against stunting. Am J Clin Nutr 97:911–918

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Rackin HM, Brasher MS (2016) Is baby a blessing? Wantedness, age at first birth, and later-life depression. J Marriage Fam 78(5):1269–1284

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Rosenzweig M, Wolpin K (1993) Maternal expectations and ex post rationalizations: the usefulness of survey information on the wantedness of children. J Hum Resour 28(2):205–229

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Santelli JR, Rochat K, Hatfield-Timajchy BC, Gilbert K, Curtis R, Cabral JS, Hirsch L, Schieve and other Members of the Unintended Pregnancy Working Group (2003) The measurement and meaning of unintended pregnancy. Perspect Sex Reprod Health 35(2):94–101

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Schott, W., Crookston, B. T., Lundeen, E. A., Stein, A. D., Behrman, J. R., and Team YL Da CoCGP (2013) Child growth from ages 1 to 8 years in Ethiopia, India, Peru and Vietnam: key distal household and community factors Soc Sci Med 97 278–287

  • Sedgh G, Singh S, Hussain R (2014) Intended and unintended pregnancies worldwide in 2012 and recent trends. Stud Fam Plan 45(3):301–314

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Trussell J, Vaughan B, Stanford J (1999) Are all contraceptive failures unintended pregnancies? Evidence from the 1995 National Survey of Family Growth. Fam Plan Perspect 31(5):246–260

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Victora CG, Adair L, Fall C, Hallal PC, Martorell R, Richter L, Sachdev HS, Maternal and Child Undernutrition Study Group (2008) Maternal and child undernutrition: consequences for adult health and human capital. Lancet 371(9609):340–357

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Weiss Y, Willis R (1985) Children as collective goods and divorce settlements. J Labor Econ 3(3):268–292

    Article  Google Scholar 

Download references

Acknowledgments

I would like to express my great thanks to Anna Aizer (Brown University), Ilyana Kuziemko (Princeton University), and Pascaline Dupas (Stanford University) for their useful comments and suggestions. I would also like to thank two anonymous reviewers from Journal of Population Economics for their very detailed and useful comments on this paper.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. National Economics University and Mekong Development Research, Hanoi, Vietnam

    Cuong Viet Nguyen

Authors
  1. Cuong Viet Nguyen
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Cuong Viet Nguyen.

Ethics declarations

This paper “The long-term effects of mistimed pregnancy on children’s education and employment” uses the secondary data from the Integrated Public Use Microdata Series project, which is conducted by the Minnesota Population Center, National Statistical Offices. There are no ethic problems related to this study.

Conflict of interest

I declare that there are no financial or business interests that relate to the paper “The long-term effects of mistimed pregnancy on children’s education and employment.” There are no other conflicts or ethnic issues related to the study.

Additional information

Responsible editor: Junsen Zhang

Appendix

Appendix

Table 6 Description of data samples
Full size table
Table 7 Definition and summary statistics of variables
Full size table
Table 8 Poisson and OLS regressions of education and employment
Full size table
Table 9 Family fixed-effects regressions of education and employment
Full size table
Table 10 Family fixed-effects regressions of education and employment: sample without two-child families
Full size table
Table 11 Poisson and OLS regressions in different countries
Full size table

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Check for updates. Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this article

Nguyen, C.V. The long-term effects of mistimed pregnancy on children’s education and employment. J Popul Econ 31, 937–968 (2018). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00148-018-0697-9

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00148-018-0697-9

Keywords

JEL classification

Search

Navigation