Abstract
Recent models on the dynamics of immigration control claim that tightening internal borders may trigger the formation of networks supporting clandestine foreign workers. This may, in turn, increase the overall stock of illegal immigrants in the economy. One possible solution to this threatening situation might be to partly bounce back the struggle against illegal immigration to the source countries. This paper suggests that under certain conditions, the receiving country should direct some of the resources earmarked for coping with the problem of the illegal flow of workers to financially supporting the source countries, allowing them to compete among themselves for such aid. This support would be allocated according to the relative effort made by each source country in curbing illegal immigration, thereby motivating them to moderate the phenomenon. The model is also applicable to other fields of negative externalities, such as the smuggling of drugs and weapons, terrorism, and pollution.
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Notes
Illegal immigrants may be wary of sending money through proper channels for fear of being caught. Illegality of residence can often restrict the level of income repatriation. The remittances per illegal Mexican worker in the United States are about $1,800 annually (Time Magazine, July 30, 2001, p. 28).
The risk of being apprehended during any given attempt to enter the United States illegally is about 30%, whereas an illegal alien already established in the United States faces 1 to 2% probability of being arrested (Yoshida 2000, p. 9).
The rich country is assumed to be credible. Credibility of the government is an implicit assumption in most related static contests in the vast rent-seeking literature. It is indeed reasonable to assume that rich countries like the United States are concerned with maintaining their credibility and will not renege on their obligations. This could be formalized in a framework of an infinitely repeated game, such that if the rich country ever fails to meet its obligation, it will be unable to implement the proposed policy and other policies in the future.
Since the number of apprehended illegal aliens is measurable, this policy can be implemented easily. Notice that, s i can also be interpreted as the probability that county S i receives the foreign aid, F.
Bratsberg (1995) estimated that a 10% (or 22%) growth in Mexico's gross national product (GNP) would reduce illegal immigration by 8.3% (or 16.7%), or 10.3% (or 20.4%) if special agriculture workers (SAW) are included.
The country is assumed to be large, so that by appealing to the Strong Law of Large Numbers, country aggregate uncertainty would not exist, although individuals face the risk of getting caught at the border.
The contest can be modified to also include the cases of only one source country, m=1, and more than two source countries, m>2. In the former case, we suggest designing a contest in which the source country competes against the receiving country, i.e., the source country's share of F (or the probability to get F) is s 1=δ/(δ+p 0 N 1), where the parameter δ>0 represents the degree of difficulty to receive the foreign aid because of bureaucratic friction, which decreases as δ increases. In this case, the government can behave as a Stackelberg leader and design an optimal contest by choosing the appropriate δ and, in turn, the corresponding expected size of the foreign aid is endogenous. In the latter case, S i 's share of F is \(s_{i} = {{\sum\limits_{j \ne i}^m {N_{j} } }} \mathord{\left/ {\vphantom {{{\sum\limits_{j \ne i}^m {N_{j} } }} {{\sum\limits_{j = 1}^m {N_{j} } }}}} \right. \kern-\nulldelimiterspace} {{\sum\limits_{j = 1}^m {N_{j} } }} = {N_{{ - i}} } \mathord{\left/ {\vphantom {{N_{{ - i}} } N}} \right. \kern-\nulldelimiterspace} N\).
F is large enough since it also includes the financial aid that the rich country transfers to the source countries for humanitarian or other reasons in any case. In 2003, for example, the total U.S. foreign aid flowing to all nations was $17.2 billion. It should be noted that the transfers made to Mexico during the Peso crisis explicitly rationalized by federal officials as reducing migration pressure on the United States–Mexican border.
Detailed calculations are available from the authors by request.
This is because for a given F one gets that
$$\frac{{\partial ^{2} F}}{{\partial B^{2}_{{\text{e}}} }} = - \frac{{dF}}{{dB_{{\text{e}}} }}B^{{ - 1}}_{{\text{e}}} + f^{{\prime \prime \prime }} U^{5}_{k} {\left( {f^{\prime } } \right)}^{{ - 1}} B^{{ - 6}}_{{\text{e}}} A^{{ - 1}}_{i} + 2f^{{\prime \prime }} U^{2}_{k} {\left( {f^{\prime } } \right)}^{{ - 3}} B^{{ - 4}}_{{\text{e}}} - 3{\left( {f^{{\prime \prime }} } \right)}^{2} U^{5}_{k} {\left( {f^{\prime } } \right)}^{{ - 2}} B^{{ - 6}}_{{\text{e}}} A^{{ - 1}}_{i} < 0.$$
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The authors are grateful to three anonymous referees for their valuable comments.
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Appendix 1
Appendix 1
The reaction curve of country S i , which is derived from the first-order condition for maximum (Eq. 3) and its slope are given by Eqs. (A1) and (A2), respectively:
and
Alternatively, the reaction curve of country S i can be formulated as N i (N j ) with a slope as follows:
As shown in Eq. A3, the sign of the slope of the reaction curve of country S i depends on its share of the foreign aid. Thus, if s i >0.5 (i.e., N i <N j ), the costs to country S i are positively related to the costs to country S j and vice versa if s i <0.5. Note that country S i 's net expected financial receipts reflect two components: its share of the foreign aid and the expected benefits as a result of uncaught illegal immigrants in the receiving country. It may therefore be concluded that for s i >0.5, if country S j increases its costs in curbing illegal immigration and thereby its share of the foreign aid, it is optimal for country S i to “fight” for a larger share of the funds by raising its costs. However, if s i <0.5, the optimal strategy is the opposite: to increase the expected benefits from uncaught illegal immigrants in the receiving country by decreasing the costs of the preventative measures.
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Dula, G., Kahana, N. & Lecker, T. How to partly bounce back the struggle against illegal immigration to the source countries. J Popul Econ 19, 315–325 (2006). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00148-005-0026-y
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00148-005-0026-y