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Seismogenic Nodes (M ≥ 5.0) in Northeast Egypt and Implications for Seismic Hazard Assessment

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Abstract

Seismogenic nodes capable of generating shallow earthquakes with M ≥ 5.0 have been identified in the northeast part of Egypt using the pattern recognition approach. The study region includes the Sinai Peninsula and the northern part of the Eastern Desert between the Nile River and the Red Sea, which comprises the new capital of Egypt and Suez Canal projects and represents a place for much future development. We apply a phenomenological approach based on pattern recognition for identifying seismogenic nodes. The methodology is based on the idea that earthquakes nucleate at nodes: specific structures forming around fault intersections. Morphostructural zoning (MZ) is applied to map nodes over the entire study region without using a priori knowledge of regional seismicity. The pattern recognition is employed to pinpoint seismogenic nodes where earthquakes with M ≥ 5.0 may occur in the future. As a result, seismogenic nodes capable of generating earthquakes with M ≥ 5.0 have been defined in the Sinai Peninsula and the northern part of the Eastern Desert. We also found characteristic geological-geophysical features that discriminate seismogenic nodes (D) from non-seismogenic ones (N). Information on the potential seismic sources represents the main issue in seismic hazard evaluation. Seismogenic nodes prone to earthquakes with M ≥ 5.0, as described in this work, may contribute to the definition of earthquake source zones in the northeast of Egypt because some of the D nodes are potential sources of seismic risk for critical facilities (e.g., Ismailia Tunnels) and large metropolitan areas (e.g., Nile Valley). This information can contribute to the revision of seismic zoning or microzoning and improve the performance of seismic hazard studies of Egypt by adding a new source of information about seismogenic nodes to the seismogenic zones.

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Acknowledgements

A. Gorshkov and O. Novikova are partly funded by the Russian Foundation of Basic Research (RFBR) according to the research project 16-55-12033. Hany M. Hassan is funded by the Egyptian Ministry of Higher Education (Cultural Affairs and Missions Sector, Cairo). The authors would like to thank the Editor Dr. Benjamin Edwards and the anonymous reviewers for their useful and constructive comments and recommendations. Also, the authors want to express their gratefulness and respect to Dr. Mohamed ElGabry for all kinds of help and support. Special thanks to Jonathan Ford for revising the paper linguistically.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Institute of Earthquake Prediction Theory and Mathematical Geophysics RAS, Profsoyuznaya str. 84/32, Moscow, Russia

    A. I. Gorshkov & O. V. Novikova

  2. Department of Mathematics and Geosciences, University of Trieste, Via Weiss 4, 34127, Trieste, Italy

    Hany M. Hassan

  3. National Research Institute of Astronomy and Geophysics, Helwan, Cairo, 11421, Egypt

    Hany M. Hassan

  4. North Africa Group for Earthquakes and Tsunami Studies (NAGET), Net40/OEA ICTP, Trieste, Italy

    Hany M. Hassan

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  1. A. I. Gorshkov
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Gorshkov, A.I., Hassan, H.M. & Novikova, O.V. Seismogenic Nodes (M ≥ 5.0) in Northeast Egypt and Implications for Seismic Hazard Assessment. Pure Appl. Geophys. 176, 593–610 (2019). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00024-018-2012-9

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