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Pure and Applied Geophysics

, Volume 176, Issue 1, pp 119–131 | Cite as

An Optimization of Using the M8 Algorithm for Prediction of Major M7.0+ Earthquakes in the Iranian Plateau

  • Ali Ramezani
  • Rahim Ali AbbaspourEmail author
  • Masoud Mojarab
Article
  • 75 Downloads

Abstract

The casualties and financial losses caused by large earthquakes have led to an awareness of prediction importance of such earthquakes. The earthquake prediction is divided into four categories: long term, intermediate term, short term, and immediate. The M8 algorithm is one of the intermediate-term middle-range prediction algorithms primarily used to predict earthquake of magnitude 8 or more and is applied later for smaller magnitudes. The Iranian Plateau is less exposed to earthquake with magnitude 8 or more and it is observed that the seismicity rate in this region is generally low. Thus; the original M8 is not suitable for applying in this region. The objective of this study is to modify the M8 algorithm for Prediction of Major M7.0+ Earthquakes in the Iranian Plateau. The major earthquake of magnitude 7 or more in the Iranian plateau from 1975 to 2018 is considered as the target earthquakes. The hit rate times 1 minus alarm rate is defined as objective function and the particles swarm optimization meta-heuristic algorithm is used to maximize it. The optimum M8 could predict 14 out of 17 large earthquakes in the Iranian plateau while occupying 31.7% of the spatio-temporal space as the alarm. The results show that by employing an optimization algorithm, we can modify the M8 algorithm for efficient prediction of the target magnitudes less than 8 in the regions with low seismicity rate.

Keywords

Earthquake prediction M8 algorithm Iranian plateau optimization PSO 

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Copyright information

© Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2018

Authors and Affiliations

  • Ali Ramezani
    • 1
  • Rahim Ali Abbaspour
    • 1
    Email author
  • Masoud Mojarab
    • 2
  1. 1.School of Surveying and Geospatial Engineering, College of EngineeringUniversity of TehranTehranIran
  2. 2.Bonian-Zamin Consultant EngineersTehranIran

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