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Temporal Delineation and Quantification of Short Term Clustered Mining Seismicity

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Abstract

The assessment of the temporal characteristics of seismicity is fundamental to understanding and quantifying the seismic hazard associated with mining, the effectiveness of strategies and tactics used to manage seismic hazard, and the relationship between seismicity and changes to the mining environment. This article aims to improve the accuracy and precision in which the temporal dimension of seismic responses can be quantified and delineated. We present a review and discussion on the occurrence of time-dependent mining seismicity with a specific focus on temporal modelling and the modified Omori law (MOL). This forms the basis for the development of a simple weighted metric that allows for the consistent temporal delineation and quantification of a seismic response. The optimisation of this metric allows for the selection of the most appropriate modelling interval given the temporal attributes of time-dependent mining seismicity. We evaluate the performance weighted metric for the modelling of a synthetic seismic dataset. This assessment shows that seismic responses can be quantified and delineated by the MOL, with reasonable accuracy and precision, when the modelling is optimised by evaluating the weighted MLE metric. Furthermore, this assessment highlights that decreased weighted MLE metric performance can be expected if there is a lack of contrast between the temporal characteristics of events associated with different processes.

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Acknowledgements

A special thanks is due to Paul Harris for assisting in the programming of these analysis techniques. This research is part of Phase 5 of the ACG’s Mine Seismicity and Rockburst Risk Management project, sponsored by the following organisations: Barrick Gold of Australia, BHP Billiton Nickel West, BHP Billiton Olympic Dam, Independence Group (Lightning Nickel), LKAB Sweden, Perilya Limited (Broken Hill Mine), Vale Inc. Canada, Agnico-Eagle Canada, Gold Fields St Ives Gold Operations, Hecla USA, Kirkland Lake Gold, MMG Golden Grove, Newcrest Cadia Valley Operations, Newmont Asia Pacific, Xstrata Copper (Kidd Mine), Xstrata Nickel Rim, and the Minerals and Energy Research Institute of Western Australia.

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  1. Australian Centre for Geomechanics, The University of Western Australia, 35 Stirling Highway (M600), Crawley, WA, 6009, Australia

    Kyle Woodward, Johan Wesseloo & Yves Potvin

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  1. Kyle Woodward
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Correspondence to Kyle Woodward.

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Woodward, K., Wesseloo, J. & Potvin, Y. Temporal Delineation and Quantification of Short Term Clustered Mining Seismicity. Pure Appl. Geophys. 174, 2581–2599 (2017). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00024-017-1570-6

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