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Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics

, Volume 153, Issue 1, pp 37–72 | Cite as

Time-Varying and Regional Dynamics in Swiss Housing Markets

  • Dirk Drechsel
  • Anne Kathrin Funk
Open Access
Article
  • 294 Downloads

Summary

In light of the strong increase of house prices in Switzerland in the 2000s and early 2010s, we analyze the effects of mortgage rate shocks, changes in housing demand & supply and business cycle conditions on house prices for the time period 1982–2013. We study intertemporal effects by employing Bayesian timevarying coefficients vector autoregressions (TVC-BVAR), regional effects by using regional BVARs and heterogeneity in housing markets by looking at housing segments. 50 % of house price variations can be explained by housing demand & supply. The response of house prices to mortgage rate shocks weakened after the 1990s real estate crisis and remained constant thereafter. However, owneroccupied apartment prices became again more sensitive to mortgage rate shocks during the recent house price boom. Regional effects are especially prevalent for regions Zurich and Geneva.

Keywords

Switzerland house prices time-varying BVAR 

JEL-Classification

C32 R21 R31 

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Copyright information

© Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics 2017

Authors and Affiliations

  1. 1.KOF Swiss Economic InstituteETH ZurichZurichSwitzerland
  2. 2.Graduate Institute of International and Development StudiesGenevaSwitzerland

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