Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics

, Volume 149, Issue 4, pp 493–531 | Cite as

Driving forces of the Swiss output gap

Open Access


What drives the output gap? Contrary to standard agnostic statistical approaches, New Keynesian small open economy models allow decomposing the output gap into its shocks and confirm the conventional wisdom that most of the variation is due to foreign shocks. However, the risk premium shock also plays an important role. It has a procyclical effect on the output gap except for the most recent recession, where the economic agents demanded a higher risk premium probably due to the large Swiss financial sector. This helped to dampen the recession because of the depreciation of the domestic currency due to this shock.


C11 C51 E32 F41 


DSGE models output gap natural level of output small open economy business cycle recessions 


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Copyright information

© Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics 2013

Authors and Affiliations

  1. 1.State Secretariat of Economic Affairs (SECO)BernSwitzerland

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