The cycle of development in Africa: A story about the power of economic ideas
- 54 Downloads
During the last 60 years development in Sub-Sahara Africa has had three main phases — P1, P2 and P3 — divided by kinks in 1972 and in 1994. P1 and P3 had fairly satisfactory growth, but P2 had negative growth. This cyclical growth path has to be explained by variables with a similar path. A set of socio-economic variables representing 11 hypotheses is considered. Some of these hypotheses have been proposed to explain the low growth of Africa, while most are meant to explain the growth tragedy of P2. Most of the variables have paths with no relation to the cycle, but the path corresponds to the shifts in the dominating development strategy. At the end of P1 the main policy-package in Africa became the one of African socialism. It led to large scale rent seeking, inefficiency and economic regression. At the end of P2 policies were adjustment towards a more market based system and growth resumed.
KeywordsAfrica development policy institutions
- Aghion, P., and S.N. Durlauf (eds) (2005), Handbook of Economic Growth, Vol. 1A, North-Holland, Amsterdam.Google Scholar
- Amin, S. (1971), “Neo-Colonialism in West Africa”, from French edition 1973, Penguin, London.Google Scholar
- Aziariadis, C., and J. Stachurski (2005), “Poverty Traps”, in Handbook of Economic Growth, Vol. 1A, P. Aghion and S.N. Durlauf (eds) (2005), pp. 295–384.Google Scholar
- Bates, R. H. (1981), Markets and States in Tropical Africa: The Political Basis of Agricultural Policies, several later editions, University of California Press, Berkeley, CA.Google Scholar
- Baumol, W.J. (1986), “Productivity Growth, Convergence, and Welfare: What the Long-Run Data Show”, American Economic Review, 76, pp. 1072–1085.Google Scholar
- Bhagwatt, J., and A. O. Krueger (1973–1978), The NBER Special Conference Series on Foreign Trade Regimes and Economic Development, Ballinger, Cambridge, MA.Google Scholar
- Bjørnskov, C., and M. Paldam (2011), “The Spirits of Capitalism and Socialism. A Cross-Country Study of Ideology”, Public Choice, doi: 10.1007/s11127-010-9711-9Google Scholar
- Blaug, M. (1962), Economic Theory in Retrospect, several later editions, Heinemann, London.Google Scholar
- Boserup, E. (1965), The Conditions of Agricultural Growth: The Economics of Agrarian Change Under Population Pressure, Allan & Unwin, London.Google Scholar
- Chang, H.-J. (2003), Kicking Away the Ladder: How the Economic and Intellectual Histories of Capitalism Have Been Re-Written to Justify Neo-Liberal Capitalism, Anthem, London.Google Scholar
- Curtin, P. D. (1969), The Atlantic Slave Trade. A Census, University of Wisconsin Press, Maddison, WI.Google Scholar
- Economic Freedom Index (Fraser Institute), URL: http://www.freetheworld.com/.
- Fanon, F. (1961), The Wretched of the Earth, from French, many editions, Penguin classics, London.Google Scholar
- Freytag, A., and M. Paldam (2011), “Comparing Good and Bad Borrowing”, P.t. paper for the European Public Choice Conference 2011.Google Scholar
- Gourou, P. (1966, 4th ed.), The Tropical World, from French 1953, Longman, London.Google Scholar
- Harden, B. (1991), Africa. Dispatches from a Fragile Continent, Harper Collins, London.Google Scholar
- IBRD (World Bank) (1995), Bureaucrats as Managers. The Economics and Politics of Government Ownership, a World Bank policy research report, Oxford UP for the IBRD, New York.Google Scholar
- Johnson, S., J. D. Ostry and A. Subramanian (2007), “The Prospects for Sustained Growth in Africa: Benchmarking the Constraints”, NBER Working Paper 13120.Google Scholar
- Jones, C. I. (2002, 2nd ed.), Introduction to Economic Growth, Norton, NY.Google Scholar
- Jones, T. (1976), Ghana’s First Republic: The Pursuit of the Political Kingdom, Methuen, London.Google Scholar
- Kamarck, A. M. (1967), The Economics of African Development, Praeger, New York.Google Scholar
- Killick, T. (1978), Development Economics in Action, Heinemann, London.Google Scholar
- Killick, T. (ed.) (1995), The Flexible Economy. Routledge (for the odi), London.Google Scholar
- Krueger, A. O. (1992), The Political Economy of Agricultural Pricing Policy, a World Bank Comparative Study, Johns Hopkins University Press, Baltimore, MD.Google Scholar
- Maddison, A. (2003), The World Economy: Historical Statistics, OECD, Paris, updated versions until February 2010 available from Maddison homepage, URL: http://www.ggdc.net/maddison/.
- Naipaul, V. S. (1975), “A New King for the Congo”, New York Review of Books, June 26, several republications.Google Scholar
- Paldam, M., and E. Gundlach (2011), “The Democratic Transition: A Study of the Causality between Income and the Gastil Democracy Index”, European Journal of Development Research, doi:10.1057/ejdr.2010.66Google Scholar
- Polity (INSCR, Center for Systemic Peace), URL: http://www.systemicpeace.org/inscr/inscr.htm.
- PRIO (Peace Research Institute Oslo) conflict data, URL: http://www.prio.no/CSCW/
- PTS (Political Terror Scale), URL: http://www.politicalterrorscale.org/
- Rodney, W. (1972), How Europe Underdeveloped Africa. Howard University Press, Washington DC.Google Scholar
- Rodrik, D. (2005), “Growth Strategies”, in Handbook of Economic Growth, Vol. 1A, P. Aghion and S.N. Durlauf (eds) (2005), pp. 967–1014.Google Scholar
- Roeder, P. G. (2001), “Ethnolinguistic Fractionalization (ELF) Indices, 1961 and 1985. Document and report the ELF-index”, URL: http://weber.ucsd.edu\~proeder\elf.htm.
- Stiglitz, J. E. (2002), Globalization and its Discontents, Allan Lane, London.Google Scholar
- UNCTAD (United Nations Conference on Trade and Development), statistics at URL: http://www.unctad.org.
- WDI, World Development Indicators (World Bank), URL: http://databank.worldbank.org/ddp/home.do.
- Williamson, J. (1997), “The Washington Consensus revisited”, followed by comments by F. Steward, B. Persaud and T. Yanaghara, in Economic and Social Development into the XXI Century, L. Emmerij (ed.), pp. 48–80, Johns Hopkins UP for the Interamerican Development Bank, Washington DC.Google Scholar