Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics

, Volume 146, Issue 1, pp 107–120 | Cite as

Indeterminacy, causality, and the foundations of monetary policy analysis

  • Bennett T. McCallum
Open Access


To be useful as a guide to behavior, a model that includes a relationship between x t and zt+1 must specify whether x t is influenced by the expectation at t of zt+1 or, that zt+1 is inertially influenced by x t . We show that, for a broad class of linear RE models, distinct causal specifications will be uniquely associated with distinct solutions. Alternatively, a solution refinement requiring continuity of solution coefficients with respect to basic parameters implies this same solution. For a given structure there is only one RE solution that is fully consistent with the model’s specification.


Causality Indetermacy Relational Expectations Equilibria 


C61 C62 E37 


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Copyright information

© Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics 2010

Authors and Affiliations

  • Bennett T. McCallum
    • 1
  1. 1.Swiss Re Centre for Global DialogueRüschlikonSwitzerland

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