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Entscheidungskalküle jenseits des subjektiven Erwartungsnutzens

Ein Plädoyer für die Verwendung unterer und oberer Wahrscheinlichkeiten
  • Hagen Lindstädt
Entscheidungskalküle
  • 41 Downloads
Ambiguität Entscheidungen unter Unsicherheit Hurwicz-Kriterium Nichterwartungsnutzentheorien Untere und Obere Wahrscheinlichkeiten 

Summary

Starting point are the well-known empirical violations of axioms of Bernoulli Rationality and the discussion about its prescriptive exclusivity. The paper classifies non-expected utility models into categories which are suitable to model different kinds of violations, depending on whether they follow either Allais or Ellsberg. The argument is brought forward that a modification of Hurwicz’s Criterion is a good compromise, provided that lower and upper probabilities exist: the model is axiomatically founded, practicable — that means simply applicable, clearly interpretable and compatible with expected utility — and allows the modelling of an important class of descriptive violations. The new aspects of the article are firstly a frame of reference for the use of the models depending on the type of violation. Secondly, an axiomatic bracing of the modified Hurwicz Criterion is given by characterizing it as a special case of the Choquet expected utility when lower and upper state-probabilities occur. Thirdly, for these probabilities a clear interpretation is given within the classic probability framework.

Keywords

Ambiguity Decision-Making Under Uncertainty Hurwicz Criterion Lower and Upper Probabilities Non-Expected Utility Theories 

JEL-Classification

D80 D81 

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Copyright information

© Schmalenbach-Gesellschaft.eV. 2004

Authors and Affiliations

  1. 1.Lehrstuhl für Strategisches Management und Organisation, HHLLeipzig Graduate School of Management - Handelshochschule LeipzigLeipzigDeutschland

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