Maritime policy making for flag states: Forecasting safety/detention performance with the use of time series analysis

Abstract

In this paper time series univariate forecast methods and analysis of time series is used in an innovative way, with the intention of assisting the flag state administrators to map and predefine their shipping quality policy. In general, given the number of ships detained by Port State Control (PSC) and corresponding inspections of the flag fleet for the same period of time, one is able to forecast the Paris Memorandum of Understanding (Paris MoU) excess factor of any flag state for a selected time window. Thus, depending on the goals of each flag state administration, one can judge their feasibility (e.g. remain in the Paris MOU White List or achieve an excess factor of —1 etc) and determine whether to enhance the safety measures or not. The method is first developed and discussed on an abstract basis to set the theoretical background, a combination of time series analysis and practical engineering philosophy. Then the study focuses upon the Cyprus Flag figures in Paris MOU ports, only to demonstrate its effectiveness but can in any case be applied upon any given flag. The application of the method suggested, combined with expert judgment, could result in a significant improvement of the flag quality.