Advertisement

Intereconomics

, Volume 38, Issue 4, pp 196–208 | Cite as

EU enlargement: External economic implications

  • Jacques Pelkmans
  • Jean-Pierre Casey
Articles Enlargement

Abstract

The coming eastward enlargement of the EU has not prompted much debate about its external economic implications, quite in contrast to the fierce debates which accompanied previous enlargements. This article discusses the main economic effects of the CEECs' move from “association” to EU membership, and in particular the external impacts with respect to agriculture, industry and FDI. It also deals with the somewhat sensitive subject of US-CEEC bilateral investment treaties, as well as the prospects for catch-up growth by the accession countries.

Keywords

Foreign Direct Investment Real Exchange Rate National Treatment Candidate Country Trade Diversion 
These keywords were added by machine and not by the authors. This process is experimental and the keywords may be updated as the learning algorithm improves.

Preview

Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.

Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.

References

  1. 1.
    For the latter, see D. Gros, M. Castelli, J. Jimeno, T. Mayer, N. Thygesen and A. Hobza: The euro at 25, Special report of the CEPS Macroeconomic Policy Group, CEPS, Brussels, December 2002; A. Hobza: CEE candidate countries on the way to the eurozone, WRR, Working Document W131, The Hague 2003. See also www.wrr.nl.Google Scholar
  2. 3.
    B. Kaminsky: How accession to the EU has affected external trade and foreign direct investment in Central European economies, World Bank, Washington DC 2001.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  3. 4.
    J. Nielsen: Price-Quality Competition in the Exports of the Central and Eastern European Countries, in: INTERECONOMICS, Vol. 35, No. 2, 2000, pp. 94–101.Google Scholar
  4. 5.
    C. Aturupane, S. Djankov, B. Hoekman: Horizontal and vertical intra-industry trade between Eastern Europe and the EU, in: Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv, Vol. 135, No. 1, 1999.Google Scholar
  5. 6.
    M. Landesmann: Structural features of economic integration in an enlarged Europe: patterns of catching-up and industrial specialisation, European Commission, Economic Papers no. 181, Brussels, January 2003.Google Scholar
  6. 7.
    W. Stengg: The textile and clothing industry in the EU, a survey, European Commission, Enterprise Papers no. 2, Brussels 2001.Google Scholar
  7. 8.
    J.-J. Boillot: Revue élargissement spécial automobile, in: Missions économiques, MINEFI-DREE, dossier no. 25, September 2002.Google Scholar
  8. 9.
    For a detailed explanation of car manufacturers' strategies in the CEECs, see R. Van Tulder, and W. Ruigrok: The integration of central and eastern European Europe in car production networks, in: Actes du GERPISA, No. 25, Université d'Evry, 1999.Google Scholar
  9. 11.
    P. Brenton, F. di Mauro: The potential magnitude and impact of FDI inflows to CEECs, in: Journal of Economic Integration, Vol. 14, No. 1, 1999.Google Scholar
  10. 12.
    A. Bevan, S. Estrin: The determinants of foreign direct investment in transition economies, CEPR Discussion Paper No. 2638, London, December 2000.Google Scholar
  11. 13.
    European Round Table of Industrialists (ERT): The east-west winwin business experience, Brussels 1999; ERT, 2001, op. cit.Google Scholar
  12. 14.
    UNCTAD: World Investment Report 2002, New York and Geneva, September 2002.Google Scholar
  13. 15.
    See S. Tanic, T. Sipiläinen, S. Bäckman, J. Sumelius: Description of current farming systems in Central and Eastern European countries. Sustainable agriculture in Central and Eastern European Countries (CEESA). Project under EU 5th Framework Programme, Budapest 2001.Google Scholar
  14. 16.
    P. Liapis, M. Tsigas: CEEC accession to the EU: a general equilibrium analysis, in: Regional Trade Agreements and U.S. Agriculture/ AER-771, Economic research service, United States Department of Agriculture, Washington DC 1998.Google Scholar
  15. 19.
    M. Gorton, S. Davidova: The international competitiveness of CEEC agriculture, in: The World Economy, Vol. 24, No. 2, 2001, pp. 185–200.Google Scholar
  16. 20.
    A. Poulinquen: Competitiveness and farm incomes in the CEEC agri-food sectors, independent study requested by the European Commission, DG Agriculture, Brussels 2001.Google Scholar
  17. 21.
    A. Poulinquen, Competitiveness and farm incomes in the CEEC agri-food sectors, independent study requested by the European Commission, DG Agriculture, Brussels 2001.Google Scholar
  18. 22.
    Likewise, the share of agriculture in GDP inall accession countries hasincreased between 1990 and 1998. See C.G. van Kooten, L.H.G. Slangen, P. Suchanek, R. van Oosten: Agricultural transition in Central and Eastern European countries: an empirical analysis, paper presented at Sustainable agriculture in CEECs: The environmental effects and needs for change, Nitra, Slovakia, 10–16 September 2001.Google Scholar
  19. 23.
    J. Swinnen: Transition and integration in Europe: implications for agricultural and food markets, policy and trade agreements, in: The World Economy, Vol. 25, No. 2, 2002.Google Scholar
  20. 24.
    For a technical explanation and an attempt to estimate the effect for Central Europe, see Annex of J. Pelkmans, D. Gros, J. Nunez-Ferrer: Long-run economic aspects of the EU's Eastern Enlargement, WWR Working Documents, The Hague, September 2000.Google Scholar
  21. 25.
    V. Coudert, C. Couharde: Exchange rate regimes and sustainable parities for CEECs in the run-up to EMU membership, CEPII working paper no. 2002-15, Paris, December 2002.Google Scholar
  22. 26.
    J.-C. Bureau: Enlargement and reform of the EU common agricultural policy: impacts on the western hemisphere countries, interim report, contract #3502, Inter-American Development Bank, Washington DC 2002.Google Scholar
  23. 27.
    See, for instance, J. Swinnen, Transition and integration in Europe: implications for agricultural and food markets, policy and trade agreements, in: The World Economy, Vol. 25, No. 2, 2002.Google Scholar
  24. 28.
    Given their assumptions on demand and supply elasticities and of quota reforms, hence no production limits on milk and sugar. See J. Marsh, S. Tarditi: International impact of the new Common Agricultural Policy, report to Consumer International. April 2003.Google Scholar
  25. 29.
    European Commission: Analysis of the impact on agricultural markets and incomes of EU enlargement to the CEECs, Brussels, March 2002.Google Scholar
  26. 30.
    J.-C. Bureau, 2002,op. cit.Google Scholar
  27. 31.
    See e.g. European Commission: Enlargement and agriculture: successfully integrating the new Member States into the CAP, Issues Paper, SEC (2002) 95 of 30 January 2002.Google Scholar
  28. 32.
    P. Liapis, M. Tsigas,op. cit. S. Frandsen, H. Jensen, D. Vanzetti: Expanding fortress Europe: agricultural trade and welfare implications of European enlargement for non-Member regions, in: The World Economy, Vol. 23, No. 3, 2000.Google Scholar
  29. 33.
    A. Tovias: From 15 to 21: The impact of the next EU enlargement on Mediterranean non-member countries, paper presented at the FEMISE conference, Marseilles 17–18 February 2000.Google Scholar
  30. 34.
    A. Jessen (ed.): Closer European Union links with Eastern Europe: implications for Latin America, Institute for European-Latin American Relations, Madrid 1997.Google Scholar
  31. 36.
    OECD: Agricultural policies in transition countries: trends in policies and support, Paris 2002.Google Scholar
  32. 37.
    UNCTAD: Chairman's summary at the closing of the plenary meeting, Expert's meeting on existing agreements on investment and their development dimensions, Geneva, 28–30 May 1997.Google Scholar
  33. 43.
    P. Comeaux, N.S Kinsella: Reducing political risk in developing countries: bilateral investment treaties, stabilization clauses, and MIGA & OPIC investment insurance, in: Journal of International and Comparative Law, NYU Law School, 1994.Google Scholar
  34. 44.
    European Commission: Evaluation of the 2002 pre-accession economic programmes of candidate countries, Enlargement Papers No. 14, November 2002.Google Scholar
  35. 45.
    M. Landesmann, Structural features of economic integration in an enlarged Europe: patterns of catching-up and industrial specialisation, European Commission, Economic Papers no. 181, Brussels, January 2003.Google Scholar
  36. 46.
    EPPA/CEPS: Die Auswirkungen des ATC-Quoten abbaus auf die Deutsche Textilindustrie, Brussels 2002.Google Scholar
  37. 47.
    A number of pertinent questions are raised in J. Pelkmans: Economic implications of enlargement, Bruges European Economics Policy (BEEP) briefing no. 1, 2002, College of Europe, Bruges. See also http://www.coleurop.be/eco/BEEP.htm.Google Scholar
  38. 48.
    D. Daianu: Is catching up possible in Europe? in: Romanian Journal of European Affairs, Vol. 2, No. 1, 2002.Google Scholar
  39. 49.
    See J. Pelkmans, op. cit. Economic implications of enlargement, Bruges European Economics Policy (BEEP) briefing no. 1, 2002, College of Europe, Bruges. See also http://www.coleurop.be/eco/BEEP.htm.; W. Kok: Enlarging the European Union: achievements and challenges, report of Wim Kok to the European Commission, Florence (IUE) and Brussels, 26 March 2003.Google Scholar

Copyright information

© HWWA and Springer-Verlag 2003

Authors and Affiliations

  • Jacques Pelkmans
    • 1
    • 2
  • Jean-Pierre Casey
    • 3
  1. 1.College of EuropeBrugesBelgium
  2. 2.WRR Council MemberThe HagueThe Netherlands
  3. 3.European Economic Studies DepartmentCollege of EuropeBrugesBelgium

Personalised recommendations