Advertisement

Environmental Health and Preventive Medicine

, Volume 5, Issue 4, pp 155–159 | Cite as

Turning points in time trends of cancer mortality in Japan: Premature mortality is more sensitive in the progress of cancer prevention

  • Yoshiharu Fukuda
  • Keiko Nakamura
  • Takehito Takano
Original Article

Abstract

The aims of this study were to demonstrate the trend of overall mortality rate and premature mortality rate for select types of cancer in Japan and to assess the utility as a target indicator. The age-adjusted mortality rate for the total population (overall mortality rate) and that for persons under 65 years of age (under 65 mortality rate) for stomach cancer, liver cancer and lung cancer from 1950 to 1997 in Japan were calculated. Moreover, the turning point year of the mortality trend was estimated using a regression model of the rate of annual increase in each mortality rate. As the results show, a decline in the under 65 mortality rate preceding a decline in the overall mortality rate was observed in stomach cancer and male liver cancer. Also, the under 65 mortality rate due to lung cancer seemed to begin to decline in recent years for males, while the overall mortality rate has been increasing. This study suggests that the premature mortality rate is a more sensitive indicator of the effectiveness of cancer prevention. Hence, because of not only the larger burden of premature deaths, but also the sensitivity, premature mortality is considered to be suitable as a target indicator for cancer prevention strategies.

Key words

mortality rate health policy evaluation target indicator objective 

Preview

Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.

Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.

References

  1. 1).
    U.S. Department of Health, Education, and Welfare. Healthy People. U.S. Washington, D.C.: Government Printing Office, 1979.Google Scholar
  2. 2).
    U.S. Department of Health and Human Services. Healthy People 2000. Boston: Jones and Bartlett Pub, 1990.Google Scholar
  3. 3).
    Secretary of State for Health. The Health of the Nation. London: HMSO, 1992.Google Scholar
  4. 4).
    Secretary of State for Health. Our Healthier Nation. London: The Stationery Office, 1998.Google Scholar
  5. 5).
    Health and Welfare Statistics Association. Journal of Health and Welfare Statistics. Tokyo: Koseido Pub, 1999.Google Scholar
  6. 6).
    Robin JM. Measuring the burden of disease.Lancet 1998; 352: 757–8.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  7. 7).
    Murray CJ, Lopes AD. The utility of DALYs for public health policy and research: a reply.Bull of WHO 1997; 75: 377–81.Google Scholar
  8. 8).
    Ministry of Health and Welfare Mortality statistics from malignant neoplasms. Tokyo; Ministry of Health and Welfare; 1961, 1973, 1986.Google Scholar
  9. 9).
    Ministry of Health and Welfare. Vital statistics of Japan. Tokyo: Health and Welfare Statistics Association, 1985–1997.Google Scholar
  10. 10).
    Abe Y, Onodera M, Kamiya K, Saito F, Matsui T. On the revision of the age-adjusted death rate.Rosei No Shihyo 1991; 38: 21–6.Google Scholar
  11. 11).
    Yamamoto A, Kato S, Ueno E, et al. Influence on vital statistics of introduction of ICD-10 and modification of death certification.Kosei No Shihyo 1996; 43: 27–33.Google Scholar
  12. 12).
    Kato S, Yamamoto A, Ueno E, et al. Influence on vital statistics of introduction of ICD-10 and modification of death certification.Kosei No Shihyo 1995; 42: 27–33.Google Scholar
  13. 13).
    Bailar JC, Smith EM. Progress against cancer?N Engl J Med 1986; 314: 1226–36.PubMedGoogle Scholar
  14. 14).
    Bailar JC and Gornik HL. Cancer undefeated.N Engl J Med 1997; 336: 1569–74.PubMedCrossRefGoogle Scholar
  15. 15).
    Tanaka H, Hiyama T, Tsukuma H, et al. Prevalence of second generation antibody to hepatitis V virus among voluntary blood donors in Osaka, Japan,Cancer Causes and Control 1994; 5: 409–13.PubMedCrossRefGoogle Scholar
  16. 16).
    Tanaka J, Sasaki T, Nagagami H, et al Estimation of HBV and/or HCV carrier population in Hiroshima prefecture and in Japan based on the date from volumary blood donor.Jp J Publ Hlth 1997; 44: 788–96.Google Scholar
  17. 17).
    Sobue T Smoking cessation and lung cancer.Jp. J Cancer Clinic 1998; 44: 3–6.Google Scholar
  18. 18).
    Sobue T. Epidemiology of lung cancer and prevention strategy in Japan.Jp J Hygiene 1996; 51: 641–7.Google Scholar
  19. 19).
    Murray CI, Alan DI. The Global Burden of Discase. Cambridge: Harvard University Press, 1996: pp 341–2.Google Scholar
  20. 20).
    Ministry of Health and Welfare. Kokumin Eiyo No Genjyo. Tokyo: Daiichisyuppan 1999.Google Scholar
  21. 22).
    Orrega A, Puig M. Influence of different upper age limits on the “Years of Potential Life Lost” index.Eur J Epidemiol 1992; 8: 875–7.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  22. 23).
    Hanai A. Estimation of the number of cancer survivors according to site in Japan.Jp J Cancer Res 1987; 78: 537–46.Google Scholar

Copyright information

© Japanese Society of Hygiene 2001

Authors and Affiliations

  • Yoshiharu Fukuda
    • 1
  • Keiko Nakamura
    • 1
  • Takehito Takano
    • 1
  1. 1.Department of International Health Development, Division of Public Health, Graduate School of Tokyo Medical and Dental UniversityHealth Promotion/International HealthTokyo

Personalised recommendations